EXENatural gas production
Expand Energy
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $87.80
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 16 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $20B
- Shares of Oct 20, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 2.6%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 13, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 3.3%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 13, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 7.6
- Price of Nov 13, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $11.59
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $83.25 – $126.62
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.38
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 3.2M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market weighs the low costs and strong balance sheet of Expand Energy against weak gas prices, and more gas demand from LNG exports and power plants through 2027 can lift its value.
- Gap
- Can close. The gas price in the winter of 2026 to 2027 and the Q4 2026 report with the 2027 outlook, expected in February 2027, show whether cash flow recovers.
Company guidance: 2026 capital spending about $3 billion; production 7.45 to 7.55 Bcfe/d; Q4 marketing EBITDA $80 million (, Q3 2026 results release (8-K))
Price history
About
Expand Energy Corporation (Expand Energy) is based in Spring, Texas. It says that it is the largest natural gas producer in the US. Its wells are in the Haynesville and in Northeast and Southwest Appalachia. Net production was 7.54 Bcfe per day in Q3 2026, and 92% of it was natural gas.
It also buys and sells gas through its marketing business, which grew with the purchase of Twin Eagle in September 2026. Revenues and other were $3,286 million in Q3 2026. The common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. Expand Energy files 10-K and 10-Q reports.
Thesis
The price of Expand Energy depends mostly on the US natural gas price, and the market weighs how much new demand from LNG exports and power plants will lift it. The average NYMEX gas price was $2.95 in Q3 2026, against $3.63 for nine months, and adjusted EBITDAX fell to $1,229 million in Q3 from $1,968 million in Q1. Debt is low for the size of the company, at 0.8 times adjusted EBITDAX, and the company returns cash with a base dividend and share repurchases. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true.
Gas prices must recover from Q3 levels as new LNG export plants and power plants use more gas. Production must stay near 7.5 Bcfe per day with capital spending of about $3 billion a year. The Twin Eagle marketing business must add earnings, as the $80 million of marketing EBITDA expected for Q4 2026 shows. The new chief executive, Daniel E.
Brown, must keep costs and capital spending under control. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in February 2027, are the next tests.
Checkpoints
- Feb 16, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 outlook2026 production is in the guided range of 7.45 to 7.55 Bcfe per day and 2027 capital spending stays near $3 billion, and this passes; lower production or a large rise in capital spending fails.
Recent events
- October 27, 2026Expand Energy reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $519 million, adjusted EBITDAX was $1,229 million and production was 7.54 Bcfe per day. It repurchased $305 million of common stock in Q3 and about $900 million in nine months. It plans a quarterly base dividend of $0.575 per share on December 3, 2026.
- October 19, 2026The board appointed Daniel E. Brown, the former chief executive of Chord Energy, as President and Chief Executive Officer, from about October 26, 2026.
- October 6, 2026Expand Energy moved the maturity of its $3.5 billion credit facility by one year to September 30, 2031.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- September 17, 2026Expand Energy issued $500 million of 5.650% senior notes due 2031.
- September 16, 2026Expand Energy completed the purchase of Twin Eagle, a natural gas marketing and logistics company, for about $1.4 billion including purchase price adjustments.
- July 24, 2026The board added $1.0 billion to the share repurchase program, for a total of $2.0 billion.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 27, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 16, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · exe-20260930
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · exe-20261008
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Other company newsFiled · exe-20260916
- 8-KNew material agreement and Investor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · exe-20260630
Risks
- Gas prices move earnings. Adjusted EBITDAX was $1,968 million in Q1 2026 and $1,229 million in Q3 2026, mainly because gas prices fell.
- Fixed costs to move gas are large. Future commitments for gathering, processing, transportation and storage were about $8.9 billion at September 30, 2026.
- Twin Eagle adds marketing risk. The business trades gas and uses a credit facility that matures in May 2027, and its integration is new.
- Leaders changed. A new chief executive started in October 2026, and a new chief accounting officer was appointed on October 8, 2026.
- LNG commitments add price risk. Expand Energy agreed to buy about 1.15 MTPA of LNG from Delfin for 20 years, with deliveries targeted from 2031.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $118M
- Debt
- $4.7B
- Net debt
- $4.6B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.8×
- EBITDA $5.8B, last 12 months
- Credit line
- $3.1B
- undrawn, to September 2031
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $4.6B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
At September 30, 2026, Expand Energy had debt principal of $4,688 million: $450 million drawn on its credit facility and senior notes of $638 million due 2029, $1,200 million due 2030, $500 million due 2031, $1,150 million due 2032 and $750 million due 2035. It also had $86 million of borrowings under the Twin Eagle receivable purchase agreement. Cash and cash equivalents were $118 million, so net debt was $4,656 million, which is 0.8 times adjusted EBITDAX of $5,805 million for the last twelve months. The $3.5 billion credit facility, which matures in September 2031, had about $3.1 billion available, and the Twin Eagle credit facility, which matures in May 2027, had about $734 million available. S&P rates the company BBB- and Moody's Baa3, and Fitch raised its rating to BBB in May 2026, all with a stable outlook.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 2.6% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 3.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $87.80)
- Paid per share
- $2.875 in the last 12 months (5 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $2.30 ($0.575 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 23% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- November 12, 2026, $0.575 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.00 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.00 | |
| 2018 | $0.00 | |
| 2019 | $0.00 | |
| 2020 | $0.00 | |
| 2021 | $1.126 | |
| 2022 | $9.588 | |
| 2023 | $3.62 | |
| 2024 | $2.44 | |
| 2025 | $1.725 |
One-off payments far above the usual dividend are left out of these numbers.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 12, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Expand Energy
What does Expand Energy do?
Expand Energy Corporation (Expand Energy) is based in Spring, Texas. It says that it is the largest natural gas producer in the US. Its market cap is $20B at the current price of $87.80.
When does Expand Energy report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Expand Energy may report on February 16, 2027. It last reported results on October 27, 2026.
Is Expand Energy stock below its intrinsic value?
Expand Energy stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Expand Energy?
The latest update is from October 27, 2026. Expand Energy reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Expand Energy?
Gas prices move earnings. Fixed costs to move gas are large. Twin Eagle adds marketing risk.
How much debt and cash does Expand Energy have?
At September 30, 2026, Expand Energy had $4.7B of debt and $118M of cash.
Does Expand Energy pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Expand Energy is $2.30 per share. That is a dividend yield of 2.6% at the current price of $87.80. In the last 12 months, it paid $2.875 per share (3.3%). The latest ex-dividend date was November 12, 2026.
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