Skip to content

SHOPCommerce software

Shopify

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

By

Updated

Price
$152.06
Analysts view
Analysts Bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Top pick
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 10 · · estimated
History
P/E (trailing)
93.3
Price of Nov 10, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$1.63
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$94.00 – $180.88
To Nov 9, 2026
Beta
2.65
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
8.7M
3 months, to Nov 9, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market doubts that Shopify can keep its fast growth and raise its cash margins as AI agents change online shopping, and steady merchant sales growth with higher margins can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The holiday sales data in early December 2026 and the Q4 2026 report expected in mid-February 2027 are dated checks within about a year.

Company guidance: Q4 2026 revenue growth at a low-thirties percentage rate and free cash flow margin consistent with Q4 2025 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))

Price history

About

Shopify sells software and services that businesses use to sell online, in stores and through other channels. Merchants pay subscription fees for the platform. Shopify also earns merchant solutions revenue, mostly from Shopify Payments, which processed 68% of the gross merchandise volume (GMV) in Q3 2026. Other merchant solutions include Shop Pay, loans and cash advances to merchants, shipping labels, point-of-sale hardware and advertising.

Millions of businesses in more than 175 countries use Shopify. Merchants sold $378 billion of goods through Shopify in 2025 and $119 billion in Q3 2026. Revenue was $11.6 billion in 2025 and $3.74 billion in Q3 2026. Shopify is a Canadian company with shares on Nasdaq and the Toronto Stock Exchange, and it files U.S. domestic reports with the SEC.

Thesis

The market doubts that Shopify can keep growing fast for many years and turn more of its revenue into cash. Revenue grew 32% in Q3 2026, but gross profit grew 28%, because payments, which have lower margins, grow faster than subscriptions. The free cash flow margin was 22% in Q3 2026 and 17% for 2025. Investors also ask whether AI shopping agents will move purchases away from the stores of Shopify merchants.

For the gap to close, three things must be true. GMV must keep growing near 25% or more; it grew 29% in Q3 2026. The free cash flow margin must keep rising for full years, not only in strong quarters. New AI products such as Catalog, Sidekick and the Universal Commerce Protocol must bring sales from AI agents to Shopify merchants.

The holiday sales data in early December 2026 give a first check, and the Q4 2026 report, expected in mid-February 2027, gives the next test. If growth and margins hold, the gap can close within about one year. The main risk is a slowdown in consumer spending, which lowers GMV and payments revenue at the same time.

Checkpoints

  1. Dec 2026 · est.Pending
    Black Friday and Cyber Monday salesMerchant sales growth over the holiday weekend near the GMV growth of Q3 2026 passes; much slower growth fails.
  2. Feb 10, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlookRevenue growth in the low thirties and a full-year free cash flow margin above the 17% of 2025 pass; slower growth or a lower margin fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 3, 2026Shopify reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 32% to $3.74 billion, and GMV grew 29% to $119.1 billion. Operating income was $568 million, and free cash flow was $816 million, a margin of 22%. For Q4 2026, Shopify expects revenue growth at a low-thirties percentage rate and a free cash flow margin consistent with Q4 2025.
  • August 5, 2026Shopify reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 34% to $3.58 billion, GMV was $115.6 billion and the free cash flow margin was 18%.
  • July 2, 2026Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, a director and the chair of the Audit Committee, left the board to take a full-time position with the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Show 2 older events
  • June 2, 2026The board authorized Shopify to buy back an additional $3.0 billion of its Class A shares, for a total authorization of $5.0 billion.
  • February 11, 2026Shopify reported 2025 results. Revenue grew 30% to $11.6 billion, GMV grew 29% to $378.4 billion and free cash flow was $2.0 billion, a margin of 17%. It started a share buyback program of $2 billion.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
November 3, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about February 10, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · shop-20260930
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · shop-20261103
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · shop-20260630
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · shop-20260805
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · shop-20260702
  • 8-KShareholder vote results and Other company newsFiled · shop-20260616
  • 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · shop-20260602
  • 8-KOther company newsFiled · shop-20260508
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · shop-20260331
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · shop-20260505

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1594805)

Risks

  • Most revenue depends on how much merchants sell. Merchant solutions were 77% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026. A slowdown in consumer spending lowers GMV and payments revenue together.
  • AI agents and large marketplaces can change how buyers find and buy products. If purchases move away from merchant stores, Shopify can lose GMV or pricing power.
  • Payments revenue has lower margins than subscriptions. Shopify expects Q4 2026 gross profit to grow at a high-twenties rate, slower than revenue.
  • Shopify holds $4.91 billion of equity and other investments at market value. Changes in their value move net income, and Shopify had a net loss of $581 million in Q1 2026.
  • Shopify lends to merchants. Loans and merchant cash advances were $2.35 billion at September 30, 2026, and losses can rise in a weak economy.

Balance sheet

Cash
$4.7B
Debt
$0.0M
Net cash
$4.7B
Credit line
$100M
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$4.7B
Debt$0.0M

debt covered by cash

Shopify has no debt. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $1.87 billion and marketable securities were $2.86 billion, for a total of $4.73 billion, and long-term investments were $524 million.

Dividends

Shopify does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Shopify

What does Shopify do?

Shopify sells software and services that businesses use to sell online, in stores and through other channels. Merchants pay subscription fees for the platform.

When does Shopify report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Shopify may report on February 10, 2027. It last reported results on November 3, 2026.

Is Shopify stock below its intrinsic value?

Shopify stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Shopify?

The latest update is from November 3, 2026. Shopify reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Shopify?

Most revenue depends on how much merchants sell. AI agents and large marketplaces can change how buyers find and buy products. Payments revenue has lower margins than subscriptions.

How much debt and cash does Shopify have?

At September 30, 2026, Shopify had $0.0M of debt and $4.7B of cash.

Does Shopify pay a dividend?

No. Shopify does not pay a dividend.

Similar companies

  • EXPGYExperianShares: AI disruption risk, Weak consumer
    Intrinsic value
    Well below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • PYPLPayPalShares: AI disruption risk, Weak consumer
    Intrinsic value
    Below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • NOWServiceNowShares: AI disruption risk
    Intrinsic value
    Close to intrinsic value
    Gap
    Can close
  • CSUConstellation SoftwareShares: AI disruption risk
    Intrinsic value
    Close to intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • SAPSAPShares: AI disruption risk
    Intrinsic value
    Well below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Can close

Loading your notes…

Read it all? Star SHOP or pass, then go on to the next one.