By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $25.81
- Intrinsic value
- Intrinsic value: AI estimate
- Analysts view
- Analysts Very bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value (AI estimate)
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 16 · · estimated
- 52-week range
- $21.36 – $37.35
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 0.63
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 9.8M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- HDFC Bank trades at a premium to the AI estimate because investors pay for its long growth record, and higher returns with no new governance problems under its new leaders can earn it.
- Gap
- Slow. The Q3 fiscal 2027 report expected in mid-January 2027 is the next test, but proof that returns recover under the new chief executive comes over two to three years.
Price history
About
HDFC Bank is one of the largest private-sector banks in India. It takes deposits and gives retail, small business and corporate loans, and it sells cards, payments and treasury services. It merged with its former parent, the mortgage lender HDFC Limited, in July 2023. Its main subsidiaries are HDB Financial Services (74.1%), HDFC Life Insurance (50.5%), HDFC ERGO General Insurance (50.2%), HDFC Asset Management (52.3%) and HDFC Securities (93.9%).
At September 30, 2026, it had 9,706 branches, deposits of ₹33,274 billion, gross advances of ₹32,195 billion and a standalone balance sheet of ₹45,778 billion. Its fiscal year ends on March 31, and it reports under Indian GAAP in rupees. Its shares trade on the NSE and the BSE in India. Its ADSs trade on the New York Stock Exchange, and each ADS represents three equity shares.
Thesis
HDFC Bank trades at a premium to the AI estimate because investors pay for its long record of steady growth and few bad loans in a fast-growing economy. Deposits grew 18.8% and gross advances grew 16.3% in the year to September 30, 2026, and gross non-performing assets were only 1.11% of gross advances. But returns are lower than before the 2023 merger: annualized consolidated profit was about 13.5% of average equity in the first half of fiscal 2027 (a calculation from the results). The bank also had a year of leadership change.
Its chairman resigned in March 2026 and cited his personal values and ethics, and a new chairman, a new chief executive and a new chief financial officer took office in 2026. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Profit growth must return to the pace of loan growth as treasury gains stop falling; profit after tax rose 4.7% in Q2 fiscal 2027, or about 12.6% without treasury gains. The net interest margin must stay near 3.2% on total assets while time deposits grow faster than low-cost current and savings deposits.
No new governance problem may appear under the chief executive Anup Bagchi, who started on October 27, 2026. The Q3 fiscal 2027 report, expected in mid-January 2027, gives the next test. The full-year report in April 2027 shows the first results under the new leaders. If returns stay near current levels, the premium can shrink over the next two years.
Valuation
AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made
Show the method
The intrinsic value for HDFC Bank is an AI estimate from November 9, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from HDFC Bank's filings. The method is a justified price-to-book model.
Value per share is book value per share times (ROE - g) / (r - g), where ROE is the long-term return on equity, r is the cost of equity in rupees and g is long-term growth. The results for the quarter and half year to September 30, 2026 (6-K, October 19, 2026) give consolidated share capital of ₹1,541.86 crore and reserves and surplus of ₹601,927.19 crore, with a face value of ₹1 per share. This gives 15,418.6 million shares and a consolidated book value of ₹391.39 per share. The same results give consolidated profit of ₹39,944.74 crore for the six months, which is about 13.5% of average equity when annualized (a calculation from the results), and consolidated profit of ₹76,025.97 crore for the year to March 31, 2026.
The 20-F for the year to March 31, 2026 (July 29, 2026) says that each ADS represents three equity shares after the one-for-one bonus issue of August 2025. The ROE, cost of equity and growth in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes ROE of 13%, near the current level, a 12.5% cost of equity and 7.5% growth. It gives 1.10 times book, ₹430.53 per share and $13.67 per ADS.
The base case assumes ROE of 15%, a 12% cost of equity and 8% growth. It gives 1.75 times book, ₹684.93 per share and $21.75 per ADS. The high case assumes ROE of 17%, near the levels before the 2023 merger, a 12% cost of equity and 8% growth. It gives 2.25 times book, ₹880.63 per share and $27.97 per ADS.
The estimate uses an exchange rate of ₹94.46 per U.S. dollar, the market rate at the close on November 6, 2026, as an assumption. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is ₹670.26 per share and $21.29 per ADS. The value moves with the rupee.
Switching costs and intangible assets are the main sources of the advantage. Customers keep their salary accounts, loans and cards at one bank for many years, and HDFC Bank has a strong brand and 9,706 branches. Its gross non-performing assets stayed low, at 1.11% of gross advances at September 30, 2026. But other large private banks offer the same products, the return on equity fell after the 2023 merger, and the 2026 leadership changes add risk.
The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.
Checkpoints
- Jan 16, 2027 · est.PendingQ3 fiscal 2027 results: profit growth and marginProfit after tax growth near loan growth with a net interest margin near 3.2% and stable asset quality pass; flat profit or a lower margin fails.
- Apr 2027 · est.PendingFiscal 2027 results: first year of the new leadersHigher return on equity than in fiscal 2026 and no new governance issue pass; flat returns or a new governance issue fail.
Recent events
- November 9, 2026HDFC Bank told the NYSE that it appointed V. N. Srivatsan as its Chief Compliance Officer.
- October 17, 2026HDFC Bank reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Standalone profit after tax rose 4.7% to ₹195.1 billion, or about 12.6% without treasury gains, which fell to ₹7.8 billion from ₹23.9 billion. Net interest income rose 9.7% to ₹346.2 billion, and the net interest margin was 3.16% on total assets. Deposits grew 18.8% and gross advances grew 16.3% from a year earlier. Gross non-performing assets fell to 1.11% of gross advances.
- October 1, 2026The Reserve Bank of India approved Anup Bagchi as Managing Director and CEO for three years from October 27, 2026. He replaced Sashidhar Jagdishan, who completed his term on October 26, 2026. Bagchi was the MD and CEO of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance and a former Executive Director of ICICI Bank.
Show 7 older eventsHide older events
- July 27, 2026HDFC Bank completed an internal review of a deposit arrangement with the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation in 2017 and 2021. The board found business overreach, not bad intent or personal gain. It gave warning letters and a penalty of ₹1 lakh each to three senior employees, including the CEO and the CFO, and it reported the matter to the Reserve Bank of India.
- July 18, 2026HDFC Bank reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Standalone profit after tax was ₹190.6 billion.
- July 16, 2026The Reserve Bank of India approved Rajiv Kumar as part-time chairman of HDFC Bank.
- June 30, 2026HDFC Bank appointed Puneet Sharma as Chief Financial Officer-designate from September 1, 2026, and as Chief Financial Officer from December 1, 2026.
- June 26, 2026External law firms completed their review of the former chairman's resignation letter. They found that his statement was not supported by the board records or the witness interviews. He did not agree to an interview.
- April 18, 2026HDFC Bank reported results for the year to March 31, 2026. Standalone profit after tax was ₹746.7 billion. The board recommended a final dividend of ₹13.00 per share, for a total of ₹15.50 per share for the year.
- March 18, 2026The part-time chairman, Atanu Chakraborty, resigned and said that some events and practices at the bank were not in line with his personal values and ethics. Keki Mistry became interim chairman. On March 19, 2026, the Reserve Bank of India said that it had no material concerns on record about the bank's conduct or governance.
Latest news and filings
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 16, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- The bank changed its chairman, chief executive and chief financial officer in 2026 after the chairman resigned with a statement about ethics. A review found no basis for the statement, but a new governance problem or action by the Reserve Bank of India can lower the value of the shares.
- Time deposits grew 22.8% and low-cost current and savings deposits grew 10.8% in the year to September 30, 2026. Higher funding costs can keep the net interest margin near 3.2% on total assets and hold back returns.
- Profit growth depends partly on treasury gains, which fell to ₹7.8 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027 from ₹23.9 billion a year earlier. Bond market moves can make profit growth uneven.
- The bank earns in rupees, and the ADS trades in U.S. dollars. A weaker rupee lowers the value of each ADS.
- Gross non-performing assets were 1.11% of gross advances at September 30, 2026, and 0.87% without agricultural loans. A slower economy or bad harvests can raise credit costs.
Balance sheet
HDFC Bank is a bank, so its balance sheet is mostly loans, investments and deposits, and not corporate debt. At September 30, 2026, the standalone balance sheet was ₹45,778 billion. Deposits were ₹33,274 billion, of which current and savings deposits were 31.6%, and borrowings were ₹4,890.2 billion. Net advances were ₹31,955.7 billion, so advances were about 96% of deposits (a calculation from the results). Under Basel III, the total capital adequacy ratio was 18.9%, the Tier 1 ratio was 17.2% and the common equity Tier 1 ratio was 17.1%, against a requirement of 11.9%. Risk-weighted assets were ₹31,793 billion. Gross non-performing assets were 1.11% of gross advances and net non-performing assets were 0.37% of net advances. Consolidated share capital and reserves were ₹6,034.7 billion. In June 2026, the bank sold USD 750 million of senior unsecured bonds, and in September 2026 it called ₹7.39 billion of Additional Tier 1 notes.
As of
Show 1 sourceHide sources
Dividends
- Paid per share
- $0.00 in the last 12 months (0 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $0.3755 ($0.3755 × 1 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 11, 2025, $0.3755 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.1057 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.1283 | |
| 2018 | $0.1432 | |
| 2019 | $0.216 | |
| 2020 | $0.00 | |
| 2021 | $0.2625 | |
| 2022 | $0.594 | |
| 2023 | $0.6905 | |
| 2024 | $0.348 | |
| 2025 | $0.4625 |
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about HDFC Bank
What does HDFC Bank do?
HDFC Bank is one of the largest private-sector banks in India. It takes deposits and gives retail, small business and corporate loans, and it sells cards, payments and treasury services.
When does HDFC Bank report earnings next?
This is an estimate: HDFC Bank may report on January 16, 2027. It last reported results on October 17, 2026.
Is HDFC Bank stock below its intrinsic value?
HDFC Bank stock is far above intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at HDFC Bank?
The latest update is from November 9, 2026. HDFC Bank told the NYSE that it appointed V.
What are the main risks for HDFC Bank?
The bank changed its chairman, chief executive and chief financial officer in 2026 after the chairman resigned with a statement about ethics. Time deposits grew 22.8% and low-cost current and savings deposits grew 10.8% in the year to September 30, 2026. Profit growth depends partly on treasury gains, which fell to ₹7.8 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027 from ₹23.9 billion a year earlier.
How much debt and cash does HDFC Bank have?
HDFC Bank is a bank, so its balance sheet is mostly loans, investments and deposits, and not corporate debt. This is as of September 30, 2026.
Does HDFC Bank pay a dividend?
Yes. HDFC Bank paid $0.00 per share in the last 12 months. The latest ex-dividend date was August 11, 2025.
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