By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $34.45
- Intrinsic value
- Intrinsic value: AI estimate
- Analysts view
- Analysts Very bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value (AI estimate)
- Top pick
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Jan 16 · · estimated
- 52-week range
- $25.08 – $34.48
- To Nov 9, 2026
- Beta
- 0.36
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 5.5M
- 3 months, to Nov 9, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- ICICI Bank trades at a premium to the AI estimate because investors pay for its high returns and fast loan growth, and a steady margin with few bad loans can earn it.
- Gap
- Slow. The Q3 fiscal 2027 report expected in mid-January 2027 is the next test, but proof that returns stay high as rates change comes over two to three years.
Price history
About
ICICI Bank is one of the largest private-sector banks in India. It takes deposits and gives retail, rural, business banking and corporate loans, and it has branches outside India. Its main subsidiaries and group companies include ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, ICICI Prudential Asset Management, ICICI Securities and ICICI Home Finance. At September 30, 2026, it had 7,656 branches, deposits of ₹20,499 billion, advances of ₹18,316 billion and a standalone balance sheet of ₹27,253 billion.
Its fiscal year ends on March 31, and it reports under Indian GAAP in rupees. Its shares trade on the NSE and the BSE in India. Its ADSs trade on the New York Stock Exchange, and each ADS represents two equity shares.
Thesis
ICICI Bank trades at a premium to the AI estimate because investors pay for its high returns and fast growth. Consolidated profit after tax was about 17.0% of average equity in the first half of fiscal 2027, when annualized (a calculation from the results). Standalone profit after tax rose 20.1% in Q2 fiscal 2027, and gross non-performing assets fell to 1.20% of advances. Part of the recent growth comes from foreign currency FCNR (B) deposits under a swap facility of the Reserve Bank of India.
Without them, deposits grew 17.0% and loans grew 24.1% in the year to September 30, 2026. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. The net interest margin must stay near 4.2% as rates change; it was 4.18% in Q2 fiscal 2027, down from 4.30% a year earlier. Net non-performing assets must stay near 0.30% of advances.
Return on equity must stay near the current level, and the bank must name a successor before the new two-year term of the chief executive Sandeep Bakhshi, which started on October 4, 2026, ends in 2028. The Q3 fiscal 2027 report, expected in mid-January 2027, gives the next test, and the full-year report in April 2027 gives a larger one. If returns fall toward those of other large Indian banks, the premium can shrink over the next two years.
Valuation
AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made
Show the method
The intrinsic value for ICICI Bank is an AI estimate from November 9, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from ICICI Bank's filings. The method is a justified price-to-book model.
Value per share is book value per share times (ROE - g) / (r - g), where ROE is the long-term return on equity, r is the cost of equity in rupees and g is long-term growth. The results for the quarter and half year to September 30, 2026 (6-K, October 22, 2026) give consolidated share capital of ₹1,435.96 crore and reserves and surplus of ₹386,225.63 crore, with a face value of ₹2 per share. This gives 7,179.8 million shares and a consolidated book value of ₹539.93 per share. The same results give consolidated profit of ₹31,773.24 crore for the six months, which is about 17.0% of average equity when annualized (a calculation from the results), and consolidated profit of ₹54,207.70 crore for the year to March 31, 2026.
The 20-F for the year to March 31, 2026 (July 20, 2026) says that each ADS represents two equity shares. The book value carries the listed subsidiaries at book value, not at market value, and the estimate makes no change for this. The ROE, cost of equity and growth in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes ROE of 15.5%, a 12.5% cost of equity and 7.5% growth.
It gives 1.60 times book, ₹863.89 per share and $18.29 per ADS. The base case assumes ROE of 17.5%, near the current level, a 12% cost of equity and 8% growth. It gives 2.375 times book, ₹1,282.34 per share and $27.15 per ADS. The high case assumes ROE of 19%, an 11.5% cost of equity and 8% growth.
It gives 3.14 times book, ₹1,696.93 per share and $35.93 per ADS. The estimate uses an exchange rate of ₹94.46 per U.S. dollar, the market rate at the close on November 6, 2026, as an assumption. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is ₹1,281.38 per share and $27.13 per ADS.
The value moves with the rupee. Switching costs and intangible assets are the main sources of the advantage. Customers keep their salary accounts, loans and cards at one bank for many years, and ICICI Bank has a strong brand and 7,656 branches. Its gross non-performing assets fell to 1.20% of advances at September 30, 2026.
But other large private banks offer the same products, and regulation and interest rates can change returns. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.
Checkpoints
- Jan 16, 2027 · est.PendingQ3 fiscal 2027 results: margin and asset qualityProfit growth near loan growth, a net interest margin near 4.2% and stable asset quality pass; a margin below 4.0% or rising bad loans fail.
- Apr 2027 · est.PendingFiscal 2027 results: returnsConsolidated return on equity near 17% and no new regulatory issue pass; a clear fall in returns fails.
Recent events
- October 17, 2026ICICI Bank reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Standalone profit after tax rose 20.1% to ₹148.4 billion, and net interest income rose 17.7% to ₹253.4 billion. The net interest margin was 4.18%. Deposits grew 27.1% and loans grew 30.0% from a year earlier, or 17.0% and 24.1% without FCNR (B) deposits and the loans against them. The gross non-performing asset ratio fell to 1.20%, and the CET1 ratio was 16.01%. Consolidated profit after tax was ₹163.3 billion.
- September 4, 2026The Reserve Bank of India approved Life Insurance Corporation of India to hold up to 9.99% of ICICI Bank's paid-up capital or voting rights within one year.
- August 31, 2026ICICI Bank said that it had raised about USD 17.88 billion of FCNR (B) deposits under the swap facility of the Reserve Bank of India up to August 31, 2026. Its international branches and subsidiaries had lent about USD 9.00 billion against these deposits. From July to September 2026, it also issued senior unsecured USD notes through its IFSC Banking Unit.
Show 4 older eventsHide older events
- July 18, 2026ICICI Bank reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Standalone profit after tax was ₹148.1 billion, and the net interest margin was 4.36%.
- July 4, 2026ICICI Bank signed a letter of undertaking with Prudential Corporation Holdings about the non-exercise of some of Prudential's rights in ICICI Prudential Life Insurance. In May 2026, after Prudential announced a controlling stake in Bharti Life Insurance, ICICI Bank said that it will keep its majority holding in ICICI Prudential Life.
- May 22, 2026The Reserve Bank of India approved the re-appointment of Sandeep Bakhshi as Managing Director and CEO for two years from October 4, 2026.
- April 18, 2026ICICI Bank reported results for the year to March 31, 2026. Standalone profit after tax was ₹501.5 billion and consolidated profit after tax was ₹542.1 billion. The board recommended a dividend of ₹12 per share.
Latest news and filings
- Next earnings
- Expected about January 16, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · Read it on sec.gov
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Mar 31, 2025Filed · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Large FCNR (B) deposit inflows raised the share of term deposits, and the average current and savings account ratio was 35.8% in Q2 fiscal 2027. Higher funding costs or lower rates can push the net interest margin below 4.2%.
- The chief executive started a new two-year term on October 4, 2026, which ends in 2028. An unclear succession can affect the bank's strategy and the value of the shares.
- The bank earns in rupees, and the ADS trades in U.S. dollars. A weaker rupee lowers the value of each ADS.
- The Reserve Bank of India directed a ₹12.8 billion standard asset provision on some agricultural priority sector loans, and the bank received warnings from SEBI in 2026. New regulatory findings can add costs.
- Gross non-performing assets were 1.20% of advances at September 30, 2026. A slower economy can raise credit costs, although the bank holds a contingency provision of ₹131 billion.
Balance sheet
ICICI Bank is a bank, so its balance sheet is mostly loans, investments and deposits, and not corporate debt. At September 30, 2026, the standalone balance sheet was ₹27,253 billion. Deposits were ₹20,499 billion and borrowings, including subordinated debt, were ₹2,045.5 billion, up from ₹1,262.9 billion at June 30, 2026. Advances were ₹18,316 billion, so advances were about 89% of deposits (a calculation from the results). Investments were ₹5,575 billion. Under Basel III, the total capital adequacy ratio was 16.68% and the CET1 ratio was 16.01%, against requirements of 11.70% and 8.20%. Gross non-performing assets were 1.20% of advances and net non-performing assets were 0.30%, with a provision coverage ratio of 75.0%. The bank also held a contingency provision of ₹131 billion. Consolidated share capital and reserves were ₹3,876.6 billion. Up to August 31, 2026, it had issued about USD 3.55 billion of USD bonds.
Dividends
- Dividend yield
- 0.7% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $34.45)
- Paid per share
- $0.249 in the last 12 months (1 payment)
- Current annual rate
- $0.249 ($0.249 × 1 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 3, 2026, $0.249 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.1355 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.07 | |
| 2018 | $0.00 | |
| 2019 | $0.029 | |
| 2020 | $0.00 | |
| 2021 | $0.054 | |
| 2022 | $0.126 | |
| 2023 | $0.195 | |
| 2024 | $0.239 | |
| 2025 | $0.257 |
Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 35.8% a year. Over the last 10 years, the dividend grew by about 6.3% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 9, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about ICICI Bank
What does ICICI Bank do?
ICICI Bank is one of the largest private-sector banks in India. It takes deposits and gives retail, rural, business banking and corporate loans, and it has branches outside India.
When does ICICI Bank report earnings next?
This is an estimate: ICICI Bank may report on January 16, 2027. It last reported results on October 17, 2026.
Is ICICI Bank stock below its intrinsic value?
ICICI Bank stock is far above intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at ICICI Bank?
The latest update is from October 17, 2026. ICICI Bank reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results.
What are the main risks for ICICI Bank?
Large FCNR (B) deposit inflows raised the share of term deposits, and the average current and savings account ratio was 35.8% in Q2 fiscal 2027. The chief executive started a new two-year term on October 4, 2026, which ends in 2028. The bank earns in rupees, and the ADS trades in U.S. dollars.
How much debt and cash does ICICI Bank have?
ICICI Bank is a bank, so its balance sheet is mostly loans, investments and deposits, and not corporate debt. This is as of September 30, 2026.
Does ICICI Bank pay a dividend?
Yes. ICICI Bank paid $0.249 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 0.7% at the current price of $34.45. The latest ex-dividend date was August 3, 2026.
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