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VGLiquefied natural gas exporter

Venture Global

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$12.66
Analysts view
Leaning bullish
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Mar 1 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$32B
Shares of Oct 30, 2026
Dividend yield
0.4%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
P/E (trailing)
6.1
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$2.07
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$5.72 – $17.62
To Nov 12, 2026
Average volume
15M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market doubts that Venture Global can carry its debt and the costs of its customer disputes, and a start of Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 in mid-2027 can lift its value.
Gap
Slow. The Q4 2026 report, the BP damages hearing in May 2027 and the start of Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 in mid-2027 show whether cash flow can carry the debt and legal costs stay limited.

Company guidance: 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion; 509 to 518 cargos; Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 start mid-2027 (, Q3 2026 results release (8-K))

Price history

About

Venture Global, Inc. (Venture Global) is an American producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is based in Arlington, Virginia. It has three LNG projects. Calcasieu Pass began commercial operations in April 2025.

Plaquemines began commercial operations at its first phase on October 31, 2026. CP2 is under construction, and Venture Global expects first LNG in mid-2027. Venture Global says that it has more than 100 million tonnes a year of capacity in production, construction or development. It sells LNG under long-term sales and purchase agreements, and its new agreements last 20 years.

It exported 124 cargos in Q3 2026 and 381 cargos in nine months. Revenue was $4,756 million in Q3 2026. Mike Sabel is Chief Executive Officer. The Class A common stock trades on the NYSE in US dollars.

Venture Global files 10-K and 10-Q reports.

Thesis

The price of Venture Global depends on whether cash flow from its new plants can carry its large debt, and on how its customer disputes end. Plaquemines Phase 1 began to deliver under its long-term contracts on October 31, 2026, so more of the sales of 2027 come from long-term contracts and fewer from commissioning cargos. Total debt was $45,126 million at September 30, 2026, and CP2 still draws more. BP seeks damages of $3.7 billion to more than $6.0 billion in an arbitration over the start date of Calcasieu Pass, and the damages hearing is set for May 2027.

For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 must start in mid-2027 as planned. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA for 2027 must stay near the 2026 guidance of $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion after the commissioning cargos end. The BP award must be much lower than the claim.

The financing for the expansions and for the power projects for data centers must not add much debt. The Q4 2026 report in early 2027 and the BP hearing in May 2027 are the next tests. If these hold, the gap can close over two years. If an award is large, or if a plant starts late, the gap can last longer.

Checkpoints

  1. Mar 1, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlookVenture Global meets its 2026 guidance for Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and keeps Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 on a mid-2027 start, and this passes; a later start or a lower outlook fails.
  2. May 2027 · est.Pending
    BP damages hearingThe damages hearing takes place and the final award is much lower than the $3.7 billion that BP seeks, and this passes; an award near or above this fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 10, 2026Venture Global reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 43% to $4,756 million, income from operations was $2,295 million, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $2,583 million. Net income to common stockholders was $2,546 million, which includes a gain of $1,368 million on interest rate swaps. It raised the 2026 guidance for Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA to $10.0 billion to $10.3 billion, from $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion, and declared a dividend of $0.04 per share.
  • October 31, 2026Plaquemines Phase 1 reached its commercial operations date and began to sell LNG under its long-term contracts. Venture Global said that this came just over 53 months after the final investment decision, and that it had loaded six cargos for these customers by November 10.
  • October 9, 2026Venture Global signed frame agreements with GE Vernova, Baker Hughes and GE Grid for up to 16 power islands of 720 MW each and for grid equipment. The total would be about $17.2 billion if it orders everything, and only reservation fees bind it now. Venture Global says that it can offer power and land for data centers, with compute capacity from late 2028.
Show 2 older events
  • October 7, 2026An arbitration tribunal issued a partial final award in the dispute with Galp over the start date of Calcasieu Pass. A majority found that Venture Global breached its duty to declare the start in time, and one arbitrator disagreed. Damages will come later and are subject to a cap of $170 million.
  • September 2, 2026Venture Global LNG signed a 364-day secured revolving credit facility of $3.0 billion with Bank of America as agent. The facility matures on September 1, 2027.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
November 10, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about March 1, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 2007855)

Risks

  • Customer disputes can cost a lot. BP seeks $3.7 billion to more than $6.0 billion, and Venture Global does not expect the BP award to be subject to the liability cap. Another customer seeks more than $2.0 billion, and Venture Global says that its cap is $255 million. The 10-Q says that a bad result can bring payments above the limits and can accelerate project debt.
  • Debt is very large. Total debt was $45,126 million at September 30, 2026, against $34,812 million at December 31, 2025, and the CP2 project still draws on its credit facilities.
  • Fees and prices can fall. The 2026 guidance assumes fees of $21.00 to $22.00 per MMBtu for the few cargos not yet sold. A change of $1.00 in the fee changes 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA by $20 million to $30 million.
  • Plants can start late or cost more. Plaquemines Phase 2 and CP2 are due in mid-2027. The Plaquemines and CP2 expansions still need approvals from FERC and the Department of Energy.
  • The data center plan is new. The frame agreements could cost about $17.2 billion if Venture Global orders everything. It says that data center and power projects need large spending before revenue starts.

Balance sheet

Cash
$3.4B
Debt
$45.1B
Net debt
$41.7B

Cash against debt

Cash$3.4B
Debt$45.1B

debt covered by cashnet debt $41.7B

When the debt is due

12 months$1.7B
Later$43.4B

At September 30, 2026, Venture Global had total debt of $45,126 million at principal, of which $1,694 million is current, against $34,812 million at December 31, 2025. Cash and cash equivalents were $3,420 million, and restricted cash was $1,707 million.

Dividends

Dividend yield
0.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $12.66)
Paid per share
$0.053 in the last 12 months (3 payments)
Payout ratio
8% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
September 15, 2026, $0.04 per share

Dividends per share by year

Venture Global dividends per share by year
2016
$0.00
2017
$0.00
2018
$0.00
2019
$0.00
2020
$0.00
2021
$0.00
2022
$0.00
2023
$0.00
2024
$0.00
2025
$0.068

One-off payments far above the usual dividend are left out of these numbers.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Venture Global

What does Venture Global do?

Venture Global, Inc. (Venture Global) is an American producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is based in Arlington, Virginia. Its market cap is $32B at the current price of $12.66.

When does Venture Global report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Venture Global may report on March 1, 2027. It last reported results on November 10, 2026.

Is Venture Global stock below its intrinsic value?

Venture Global stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Venture Global?

The latest update is from November 10, 2026. Venture Global reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Venture Global?

Customer disputes can cost a lot. Debt is very large. Fees and prices can fall.

How much debt and cash does Venture Global have?

At September 30, 2026, Venture Global had $45.1B of debt and $3.4B of cash.

Does Venture Global pay a dividend?

Yes. Venture Global paid $0.053 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 0.4% at the current price of $12.66. The latest ex-dividend date was September 15, 2026.

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