XPOLess-than-truckload freight transportation
XPO
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $188.59
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 4 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $22B
- Shares of Oct 23, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 44.5
- Price of Nov 13, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $4.24
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $124.82 – $232.05
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.91
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.1M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- Investors pay a premium for the fast margin gains of XPO in LTL freight, and only more yield and cost gains through 2027, while freight demand stays weak, can earn this price.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, and the 2027 results show whether LTL yield and margin gains continue while freight demand stays weak.
Company guidance: 2026 gross capex $500 to $600 million; interest expense $205 to $215 million; diluted share count about 118 million (, Q3 2026 investor presentation (8-K))
Price history
About
XPO, Inc. (XPO) is based in Greenwich, Connecticut. It is a leader in asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, where it moves shipments from many customers on the same trucks through a network of terminals. It also has a European Transportation segment with truckload brokerage, LTL and other services in France, Spain, Portugal and the UK. Revenue was $2,373 million in Q3 2026: $1,473 million from North American LTL and $900 million from Europe.
XPO has 575 locations and 38,000 employees. The common stock trades on the NYSE in US dollars. XPO files 10-K and 10-Q reports.
Thesis
The price of XPO depends on whether it can keep raising LTL prices and lowering costs while freight demand is weak. In Q3 2026 the adjusted operating ratio of North American LTL improved 260 basis points to 80.1%, yield excluding fuel rose 3.6% and tonnage per day rose 5.0%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 59% to $1.70. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true.
Yield must keep rising faster than costs for wages and fuel. Volume must keep growing as XPO wins business with better service. The European business must stay profitable. XPO must keep lowering its debt while it repurchases shares.
XPO targets adjusted EBITDA growth of 11% to 13% a year for North American LTL from 2021 to 2027. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, is the next test, and the results for 2027 show whether XPO reaches the target.
Checkpoints
- Feb 4, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 resultsThe adjusted operating ratio of North American LTL improves against Q4 2025 and adjusted diluted earnings per share grow, and this passes; a worse operating ratio fails.
- Feb 2028 · est.Pending2027 results against the LTL targetAdjusted EBITDA of North American LTL grows 11% to 13% a year from 2021 to 2027, as XPO targets, and this passes; growth below 11% a year fails.
Recent events
- October 29, 2026XPO reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 12.4% to $2,373 million, net income was $181 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 27% to $433 million. Diluted earnings per share were $1.53 and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.70. XPO repurchased $150 million of common stock and repaid $100 million of term loans in the quarter.
- October 29, 2026XPO said that it used cash on hand to repay $75 million of its 2026 Term Loan B Facility in October 2026, so it repaid $275 million of term loans in 2026 to that date.
- July 27, 2026XPO appointed Michael Kneeland to its board of directors.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- May 29, 2026XPO refinanced its term loans. A new Term Loan A Facility of $500 million and a new Term Loan B tranche of $385 million due February 1, 2031 repaid all $885 million of the prior Term Loan B Facility.
- May 20, 2026Wendy Cassity told XPO that she will resign as chief legal officer and corporate secretary on or about June 18, 2026, for personal reasons.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 4, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · xpo-20260930
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · xpo-20260630
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Other company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KInvestor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
Risks
- Freight demand is cyclical. A weaker economy would lower tonnage and make price increases harder. In February 2026, LTL weight per shipment was 2.8% lower than a year before.
- Debt is significant. Total debt principal was $3,207 million at September 30, 2026, against cash of $260 million, and XPO expects interest expense of $205 million to $215 million in 2026.
- Costs can rise. Higher fuel costs and wage inflation partly offset the gains in North American LTL in Q3 2026.
- The European business earns little. European Transportation had operating income of $12 million on revenue of $900 million in Q3 2026.
- Old claims can return. In Q3 2025 XPO recorded a charge of $35 million for environmental and product liability claims that involve a former subsidiary of Con-way.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $260M
- Debt
- $3.2B
- Net debt
- $2.9B
- Credit line
- $600M
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $2.9B
When the debt is due
The last debt is due in 2034.
At September 30, 2026, XPO had total debt principal of $3,207 million, with a carrying value of $3,124 million. It consisted of the Term Loan A Facility of $500 million, the Term Loan B Facility of $285 million, 6.25% senior secured notes due 2028 of $830 million, 7.125% senior notes due 2031 of $450 million, 7.125% senior notes due 2032 of $585 million, 6.70% senior debentures due 2034 of $300 million and finance leases and other debt of $257 million. Cash and cash equivalents were $260 million, and total liquidity with the revolving credit facility was about $860 million. Operating cash flow was $906 million for nine months. XPO expects gross capital spending of $500 million to $600 million in 2026. Operating lease liabilities are not in these figures.
Dividends
XPO does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 12, 2026.
Questions about XPO
What does XPO do?
XPO, Inc. (XPO) is based in Greenwich, Connecticut. It is a leader in asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, where it moves shipments from many customers on the same trucks through a network of terminals. Its market cap is $22B at the current price of $188.59.
When does XPO report earnings next?
This is an estimate: XPO may report on February 4, 2027. It last reported results on October 29, 2026.
Is XPO stock below its intrinsic value?
XPO stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at XPO?
The latest update is from October 29, 2026. XPO reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for XPO?
Freight demand is cyclical. Debt is significant. Costs can rise.
How much debt and cash does XPO have?
At September 30, 2026, XPO had $3.2B of debt and $260M of cash.
Does XPO pay a dividend?
No. XPO does not pay a dividend.
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