Skip to content

XPOLess-than-truckload freight transportation

XPO

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

By

Updated

Price
$188.59
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Far above intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 4 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$22B
Shares of Oct 23, 2026
P/E (trailing)
44.5
Price of Nov 13, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$4.24
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$124.82 – $232.05
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
1.91
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
1.1M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Investors pay a premium for the fast margin gains of XPO in LTL freight, and only more yield and cost gains through 2027, while freight demand stays weak, can earn this price.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, and the 2027 results show whether LTL yield and margin gains continue while freight demand stays weak.

Company guidance: 2026 gross capex $500 to $600 million; interest expense $205 to $215 million; diluted share count about 118 million (, Q3 2026 investor presentation (8-K))

Price history

About

XPO, Inc. (XPO) is based in Greenwich, Connecticut. It is a leader in asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, where it moves shipments from many customers on the same trucks through a network of terminals. It also has a European Transportation segment with truckload brokerage, LTL and other services in France, Spain, Portugal and the UK. Revenue was $2,373 million in Q3 2026: $1,473 million from North American LTL and $900 million from Europe.

XPO has 575 locations and 38,000 employees. The common stock trades on the NYSE in US dollars. XPO files 10-K and 10-Q reports.

Thesis

The price of XPO depends on whether it can keep raising LTL prices and lowering costs while freight demand is weak. In Q3 2026 the adjusted operating ratio of North American LTL improved 260 basis points to 80.1%, yield excluding fuel rose 3.6% and tonnage per day rose 5.0%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 59% to $1.70. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true.

Yield must keep rising faster than costs for wages and fuel. Volume must keep growing as XPO wins business with better service. The European business must stay profitable. XPO must keep lowering its debt while it repurchases shares.

XPO targets adjusted EBITDA growth of 11% to 13% a year for North American LTL from 2021 to 2027. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, is the next test, and the results for 2027 show whether XPO reaches the target.

Checkpoints

  1. Feb 4, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 resultsThe adjusted operating ratio of North American LTL improves against Q4 2025 and adjusted diluted earnings per share grow, and this passes; a worse operating ratio fails.
  2. Feb 2028 · est.Pending
    2027 results against the LTL targetAdjusted EBITDA of North American LTL grows 11% to 13% a year from 2021 to 2027, as XPO targets, and this passes; growth below 11% a year fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 29, 2026XPO reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 12.4% to $2,373 million, net income was $181 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 27% to $433 million. Diluted earnings per share were $1.53 and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.70. XPO repurchased $150 million of common stock and repaid $100 million of term loans in the quarter.
  • October 29, 2026XPO said that it used cash on hand to repay $75 million of its 2026 Term Loan B Facility in October 2026, so it repaid $275 million of term loans in 2026 to that date.
  • July 27, 2026XPO appointed Michael Kneeland to its board of directors.
Show 2 older events
  • May 29, 2026XPO refinanced its term loans. A new Term Loan A Facility of $500 million and a new Term Loan B tranche of $385 million due February 1, 2031 repaid all $885 million of the prior Term Loan B Facility.
  • May 20, 2026Wendy Cassity told XPO that she will resign as chief legal officer and corporate secretary on or about June 18, 2026, for personal reasons.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about February 4, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1166003)

Risks

  • Freight demand is cyclical. A weaker economy would lower tonnage and make price increases harder. In February 2026, LTL weight per shipment was 2.8% lower than a year before.
  • Debt is significant. Total debt principal was $3,207 million at September 30, 2026, against cash of $260 million, and XPO expects interest expense of $205 million to $215 million in 2026.
  • Costs can rise. Higher fuel costs and wage inflation partly offset the gains in North American LTL in Q3 2026.
  • The European business earns little. European Transportation had operating income of $12 million on revenue of $900 million in Q3 2026.
  • Old claims can return. In Q3 2025 XPO recorded a charge of $35 million for environmental and product liability claims that involve a former subsidiary of Con-way.

Balance sheet

Cash
$260M
Debt
$3.2B
Net debt
$2.9B
Credit line
$600M
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$260M
Debt$3.2B

debt covered by cashnet debt $2.9B

When the debt is due

12 months$129M
Later$3.1B

The last debt is due in 2034.

At September 30, 2026, XPO had total debt principal of $3,207 million, with a carrying value of $3,124 million. It consisted of the Term Loan A Facility of $500 million, the Term Loan B Facility of $285 million, 6.25% senior secured notes due 2028 of $830 million, 7.125% senior notes due 2031 of $450 million, 7.125% senior notes due 2032 of $585 million, 6.70% senior debentures due 2034 of $300 million and finance leases and other debt of $257 million.

Dividends

XPO does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 12, 2026.

Questions about XPO

What does XPO do?

XPO, Inc. (XPO) is based in Greenwich, Connecticut. It is a leader in asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, where it moves shipments from many customers on the same trucks through a network of terminals. Its market cap is $22B at the current price of $188.59.

When does XPO report earnings next?

This is an estimate: XPO may report on February 4, 2027. It last reported results on October 29, 2026.

Is XPO stock below its intrinsic value?

XPO stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at XPO?

The latest update is from October 29, 2026. XPO reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for XPO?

Freight demand is cyclical. Debt is significant. Costs can rise.

How much debt and cash does XPO have?

At September 30, 2026, XPO had $3.2B of debt and $260M of cash.

Does XPO pay a dividend?

No. XPO does not pay a dividend.

Similar companies

  • CLXThe Clorox CompanyShares: High debt, Weak consumer
    Intrinsic value
    Far below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • CPBThe Campbell's CompanyShares: High debt, Weak consumer
    Intrinsic value
    Deep below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • YUMYum! BrandsShares: Weak consumer, High debt
    Intrinsic value
    Close to intrinsic value
    Gap
    Can close
  • DEODiageoShares: Weak consumer, High debt
    Intrinsic value
    Close to intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • DPZDomino'sShares: Weak consumer, High debt
    Intrinsic value
    Close to intrinsic value
    Gap
    Can close

Loading your notes…

Read it all? Star XPO or pass, then go on to the next one.