By Kevin Amado ·
127 picks reported, and prices often moved against the results
From October 22 to October 30, 127 picks had a test for a quarterly report, and 86 of them passed. Prices often went the other way: NOW passed and fell 30.0% in two days, while POOL failed and rose 14.4% in one. Three picks now trade on takeover terms, three named a new CEO, and 99 picks report from November 2 to November 6.
Two thirds passed, and prices often went the other way
From October 22 to October 30, 127 picks had a test for a quarterly report, and 86 of them passed. October 28 had the most, 33, and 12 of them failed. From the October 21 close to the October 30 close, 223 of the 335 active picks rose, and the median pick gained 2.1%.
A passed test did not protect the price. ServiceNow's subscription revenue and cRPO both grew 21% in constant currency, above its guidance, and it raised its 2026 targets, but NOW fell 30.0% from the October 28 close to the October 30 close. LPL's organic net new assets grew at a 4.5% annualized rate, which passed its test, but LPLA fell 15.2% on October 28, after a report in which it lowered the share of Commonwealth assets that it expects to keep to about 83%, from about 90%. Boeing's free cash flow was positive, and BA still fell 10.7% on its report day.
The reverse happened too. Pool Corporation failed its gross margin test and rose 14.4% on October 22, its report day. Asbury failed on costs and rose 12.7% on October 27. Terex lowered its adjusted EBITDA outlook, and TEX rose 13.0% from the October 27 close to the October 30 close.
The largest one-day falls on the list came from Brazil. On October 26, BBD fell 28.0%, NU 17.0%, ABEV 14.2%, TIMB 12.4%, VIV 12.3% and MELI 7.8%. The six are a bank, a digital bank, a brewer, two phone companies and an online marketplace, and none of them reported results that day, so the move was about the country, not one company's numbers.
Companies: NOW, LPLA, BA, POOL, ABG, TEX, BBD, NU, ABEV, TIMB, VIV, MELI
The clouds grew fast, and cash fell short at three spenders
The AI spenders showed strong cloud demand, but at three of the four the cash from the business no longer covers the build-out. Google Cloud revenue grew 103% to $30.7 billion, Azure 48% to $33.2 billion, and AWS 39% to $46.0 billion, its fastest growth in nearly five years. Amazon's AWS backlog rose to $578 billion from $496 billion, and Microsoft's commercial remaining performance obligation grew 73% to $677 billion.
Alphabet's free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion in the quarter, and it sold $12.4 billion of new shares and $28.7 billion of notes and bought back no shares. Amazon's free cash flow was an outflow of $42.4 billion for the 12 months to September 30, and it expects to spend meaningfully more in 2027 than the about $220 billion of 2026. On October 26, Meta sold $25.0 billion of shares at $625 through forward sales and $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred stock. Microsoft is the exception: it paid for its $39.4 billion of spending on property and equipment from $58.0 billion of operating cash flow.
Anthropic's IPO filing of October 26 shows where part of the backlog comes from. Anthropic committed to spend at least $114.5 billion with Google, $110.0 billion with Amazon and $44.9 billion with Microsoft, in contracts that run to 2033 or 2036, and it lists TPU equipment leases with Broadcom of about $161.2 billion.
The AI names fell after the reports. From the October 28 close to the October 30 close, GOOGL fell 13.9%, AMZN 5.6% and MSFT 1.7%, and the suppliers fell too: MRVL 22.0%, AVGO 7.3%, AMAT 6.2% and NVDA 5.0%. META fell 11.8% from the October 21 close, just before its report, to October 30.
Three picks now trade on deal terms
For KVUE, RRC and QGEN, a takeover now sets the price, so their own results matter much less. EQT, the US gas producer, agreed on October 26 to buy Range Resources for 0.987 EQT shares per Range share. RRC rose 17.7% that day, and on October 30 it closed at $54.63, almost exactly 0.987 times EQT's $55.38. Kenvue grew organic sales 2.9% and passed its test, but its price follows Kimberly-Clark's: 0.14625 KMB shares at $107.94 plus $3.50 in cash come to $19.29, and KVUE closed at $19.31. On October 29, Kimberly-Clark sold $4.9 billion of notes and ended the last $3.9 billion of its bridge loan for the deal. QIAGEN agreed on October 21 to a cash offer of EUR 46.50 per share from EQT Private Equity, which is not related to the gas producer, and QGEN has barely moved since: $50.00 on October 21 and $50.22 on October 30.
Other deals reached their next step. CRH closed its purchase of Arcosa on October 23, earlier than the first quarter of 2027 that it had expected. MarketAxess shareholders approved ICE's offer on October 29, and ICE now expects to close in the first quarter of 2027. Gildan completed the sale of HanesBrands Australia for about A$700 million on October 26 and will use the money to repay debt. Two deals slipped: Boston Scientific now expects its Penumbra purchase to close in early 2027, not in 2026, and on October 23 the Delaware Supreme Court affirmed the lower court's ruling, so Verisk must keep working for FTC approval of its $2.35 billion AccuLynx purchase.
Companies: RRC, EQT, KVUE, KMB, QGEN, CRH, ICE, GIL, BSX, VRSK
Two new CEOs come from the largest consumer goods makers
Three picks named a new CEO, and two of them hired from Unilever and Procter & Gamble. On October 28, Clorox named Fabian Garcia, head of Unilever's Personal Care business since 2022, as CEO from January 5, 2027. The same day, Align named Jennifer Davis, who ran Procter & Gamble's health care business until June 2026, as CEO from December 31, 2026. At Equity LifeStyle, President and COO Patrick Waite takes over from Marguerite Nader on January 1, 2027.
Finance and risk chiefs changed too. AutoZone's CFO leaves on November 25, 2026, and AutoZone has started an external search. Rentokil's CFO retires on January 31, 2027. Monolithic Power named Tony Balow CFO on October 27, and U.S. Bancorp's Chief Risk Officer resigned on October 23 to join another public company.
Staples sold more units, except Hershey
The October 1 note named unit volume as the test for the consumer staples, and most of the large ones grew volume this round. P&G's organic volume grew about 2%, and its core EPS rose 1% against a guided fall of 5% or more. Unilever's volume grew 2.9%, and it raised its 2026 volume outlook to at least 3%. Nestlé's real internal growth was 2.8% in the third quarter, Kenvue's volume grew 1.6%, and Mondelez's volume and mix grew 1.8%.
Hershey went the other way. Prices added about 11 points of growth and volume fell about 10 points, more than in the second quarter, so its test failed even though it raised its 2026 EPS outlook to $8.58 to $8.74. About $0.25 of that outlook comes from tariff refunds. Reckitt cut its 2026 growth guidance to 3.5% to 4.5%, after Core Reckitt like-for-like growth slowed to 3.3%.
Defense and pool picks rose together
In two groups, the companies told the same story in the same week, and their prices rose together. Lockheed Martin raised its 2026 free cash flow guidance to about $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion, L3Harris had a book-to-bill of 3.2, General Dynamics' backlog rose to $220.3 billion, and HII's free cash flow turned positive at $429 million. The UK budget of October 28 fully funded the £15 billion Defence Investment Plan. From the October 21 close to the October 30 close, HII rose 15.7%, LMT 15.5%, LHX 12.1%, TXT 10.9%, GD 8.1% and BAESY 7.3%.
The three pool equipment picks told one story. Pentair said that the inventory correction with its major pool channel partners is complete, Hayward said that early buy orders for 2027 were ahead of the year before in North America, and Pool kept its 2026 guidance. Over the same days, HAYW rose 33.7%, PNR 25.3% and POOL 19.4%.
Costs and housing drove the guidance cuts
Most of the cuts named higher costs or weak home demand. CRH cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion because of cost inflation and a weaker residential market, and Amrize cut its own to $2.95 billion to $3.05 billion because of cost inflation and high interest rates. Lennox cut its adjusted EPS guidance to $21.00 to $21.50, from $23.00 to $24.00, after price cuts to defend market share in home heating and cooling, and LII fell 10.6% on its report day. Xylem cut its revenue and EPS guidance although orders grew 10% organically, and XYL fell 14.2% on its report day.
Other cuts came from problems inside one company: a cyber incident at Boston Scientific, which now expects fourth-quarter sales to fall 1% to 3%, fire truck production at Oshkosh, and a quarter that Stryker's CEO said fell short of its expectations.
A $25 billion penalty for Meta, a small charge for Edison
On October 21, a New Mexico court set a civil penalty of $25 billion against Meta, with 15% interest after judgment, in the state's case about privacy promises and content moderation. The state had asked for $35 billion to $40 billion. Meta will appeal and may have to post a bond, and the site's test for this ruling failed.
Edison's Eaton Fire settlements turned out much smaller for shareholders. SCE had recorded $1.8 billion of them by September 30, but expected recoveries from customer-funded insurance, the Wildfire Fund and FERC rates left a net after-tax charge of only $9 million. Edison kept its guidance and its plan with no new shares. Bellwether jury trials are set for January, May and September 2027, and SCE asked the court to move the January trial to June 2027.
99 picks report from November 2 to November 6
From November 2 to November 6, 99 of the 335 picks report, and 5 of those dates are still estimates. November 5 is the busiest day, with 35 picks, and November 4 has 32.
Clorox reports on November 2, its first report since it named its next CEO. QIAGEN gives its full third-quarter results on November 4, two days before the shareholder meeting that votes on a new member of its Managing Board. Kimberly-Clark reports on November 5, after its exchange offer for Kenvue notes ends on November 2. FICO reports on November 4. It fell 13.2% on October 26, the first trading day after it said that it will keep its wholesale mortgage score price at $10 for lenders in its Preferred Program. APP, NVO and MCD, an estimate, also report on November 4, and VRSK on November 5. Of the Brazilian picks, MELI reports on November 4, TIMB on November 9 and VIV on November 10.
Companies: CLX, QGEN, KMB, FICO, APP, NVO, MCD, VRSK, MELI, TIMB, VIV