By Kevin Amado ·
A harder week of reports, and utilities raised their plans
From October 31 to November 6, 104 picks had a decided test for a report or a dated event, and 64 of them passed. Many of the misses were guidance cuts that named costs or supply. The utilities went the other way and raised their spending plans, and 14 picks report from November 9 to November 13.
Fewer tests passed than the week before
From October 31 to November 6, 104 picks had a decided test, and 64 passed. The week before, 86 of 127 passed. November 4 was the hardest day: 18 passed and 15 failed. November 5 was the busiest, with 35 decided tests, and 23 of them passed.
The failures were mostly about the outlook, not the quarter. Several companies beat or met their own numbers for the quarter and still lowered the year, so the test failed on the guidance line.
Costs and supply drove the cuts
Most of the cuts named a cost or a supply problem inside the business. Prestige Consumer Healthcare cut its outlook because its Pillar5 plant still cannot make enough Clear Eyes. Mattel cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.05 to $1.20, before any tariff refunds. Ingredion cut its 2026 EPS guidance to $9.25 to $9.70, and DraftKings cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $175 million to $275 million. Gildan missed on sales, cut its 2026 guidance and withdrew its 2026 to 2028 targets.
Air Products gave fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $14.15 to $14.50 and took new charges in China. AtkinsRéalis cut its outlook as its Nuclear backlog fell. Parex Resources, added to the list on November 6, kept its production guidance but cut its second-half funds flow guidance to $435 million to $450 million, from $475 million to $525 million, because of wider Colombian crude differentials, higher energy costs and a stronger peso. PXT fell 16.3% that day.
The utilities raised their plans and will need equity
The utilities that reported raised their spending plans, mostly for new demand from data centers, and some said plainly that new shares are part of the plan. DTE raised its growth target to above 9% a year, with a $44 billion capital plan and about $1 billion of new equity a year. WEC set a $47.5 billion plan for 2027 to 2031, after it sold $2.0 billion of junior subordinated notes and set up a $4.0 billion at-the-market share program. Ameren gave a $38.1 billion plan and guidance for 2026 and 2027, and PPL gave a $25 billion capital plan with a 2027 forecast. Duke narrowed its 2026 EPS guidance to $6.70 to $6.80.
For these companies the next test is less about the quarter and more about rate cases and how much new stock they sell. Duke still waits for its North Carolina rate orders, expected in November, and WEC for its Illinois order.
Buybacks grew at three picks
Three picks raised their buybacks. EPAM approved a $1.8 billion buyback with a $500 million accelerated repurchase and said that it will return at least 50% of its free cash flow. StandardAero raised its buyback to $1.0 billion, with a $350 million accelerated repurchase. Toyota raised its buyback to ¥1.3 trillion, partly through a tender offer. CarMax set new targets for fiscal 2030 in a strategic update on November 3.
Deals and legal steps
Sempra's sale of a stake in its infrastructure business to KKR did not close by the date of its test, which failed, and the next test is set for November 19. Weatherford's move from Ireland to Delaware was approved by the Irish High Court and takes effect on November 13. TIM Brasil answered a question from the B3 exchange about a possible sale. Nexstar's leverage fell to 4.04 times, and the Ninth Circuit hears oral argument in its case on November 17.
14 picks report from November 9 to November 13
From November 9 to November 13, 14 picks report, and one of those dates, Nu's, is still an estimate. November 12 is the busiest day, with 5 picks: Brookfield, Applied Materials, Merck KGaA, Mobility Global and Nu. CNH, KKR, RB Global and TIM Brasil report on November 9, and TransDigm, KT and Telefônica Brasil on November 10.
The week after brings NVIDIA and JD.com on November 17 and Alibaba and NetEase on November 19.
Companies: NU, BN, AMAT, MKKGY, MBGL, CNH, KKR, RBA, TIMB, TDG, KT, VIV, NVDA, JD, BABA, NTES