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ADDYY

Current
Price
$98.63
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings
Jan 29, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
adidas
Sector
Sportswear
About
adidas designs and sells sports shoes, apparel and accessories under the adidas brand. Its headquarters are in Herzogenaurach, Germany. It sells through retailers (wholesale) and through its own stores and e-commerce (direct-to-consumer, DTC). Its main categories are Performance, such as Football, Running and Training, and Lifestyle, such as Originals and Sportswear. Net sales were a record € 24.8 billion in 2025, and operating profit was € 2,056 million. Other companies make most of its products under contract. One ADDYY American Depositary Receipt equals half of one adidas AG share, which trades in Germany. The ADR program is a sponsored Level I program, so adidas does not file reports with the SEC.
Thesis
The market prices adidas for the risk that 2026 is a peak year that will be hard to repeat. The FIFA World Cup in June and July 2026 drove much of the growth: apparel revenues rose 28% in the first nine months of 2026, while footwear rose only 1%. adidas says that the lifestyle footwear market is weak, with too much inventory and heavy discounts at many retailers, especially in Europe, where Q3 2026 revenues fell 4%. Record Q3 2026 profit of € 1,008 million included a one-time US tariff refund of about € 200 million. US tariffs and a strong euro still raise costs. The CFO will also change at the end of 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. adidas must reach its raised 2026 target of about € 2.5 billion of operating profit. Revenue must keep growing at a high-single-digit rate in 2027 without the World Cup, as the company's mid-term plan says. Footwear must return to growth, so that the operating margin moves above 10% in 2028 without one-time gains. The full-year results and the 2027 outlook, expected in early 2027, are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker consumer and more discounts in lifestyle footwear, which can stop growth after the World Cup.
Risks
Growth in 2026 depends partly on the FIFA World Cup. In the first nine months of 2026, Performance revenues rose 27% while footwear rose only 1%. 2026 profit also includes a one-time US tariff refund of about € 200 million. In 2027 there is no World Cup, so sales and profit must grow against a strong year. adidas says that the lifestyle footwear market is under pressure from heavy discounts at many retailers, especially in Europe. Revenues in Europe fell 4% in Q3 2026, partly because adidas shipped less to retailers. Longer discounts can lower prices and margins. US tariffs and a strong euro cost adidas about € 400 million in 2026, by its own estimate. Freight and sourcing costs also rose. Higher tariffs or a stronger euro can lower profit further. Inventories were € 5,739 million at September 30, 2026, 5% more than a year earlier, after adidas kept more product for the World Cup. If demand slows, adidas may need to sell this stock at lower prices.
Balance sheet
adidas funds its operations mostly with its cash flow and euro bonds. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were € 1,651 million, up from € 1,030 million a year earlier. Adjusted net borrowings, which the company states with lease and pension liabilities, were € 4,646 million, down 3% from a year earlier, and the ratio of adjusted net borrowings to EBITDA was 1.3 times, down from 1.6 times. In May 2026, adidas placed a € 500 million bond as an early refinancing of a € 400 million bond due in October 2026. In the first nine months of 2026, adidas paid a dividend of € 491 million and completed a share buyback of € 1 billion, which cut the shares outstanding to 172.4 million. Operating working capital rose 8% to € 6,682 million. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Oct 29, 2026: 9M 2026 results: growth after the World Cup. Passed. Watch: Currency-neutral revenue growth near the 9% to 10% full-year outlook and the operating profit target of about € 2.3 billion confirmed pass; a cut to either target fails. Outcome: adidas kept its outlook for 9% to 10% currency-neutral revenue growth and raised its operating profit target to about € 2.5 billion, helped by a one-time tariff refund. Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: 2026 operating profit of about € 2.5 billion and an outlook for high-single-digit currency-neutral growth in 2027 with higher operating profit without the tariff refund pass; an outlook for flat sales or lower profit fails.
Recent events
Oct 29, 2026: adidas reported Q3 2026 results. Revenues rose 9% to a record € 7,252 million, and 7% currency-neutral. DTC sales grew 17%, but wholesale grew only 2%, and revenues in Europe fell 4%. Footwear revenues were flat, while apparel rose 19%. Gross margin rose to 54.3%, helped by a US tariff refund of about € 200 million. Operating profit rose 37% to a record € 1,008 million, and EPS from continuing operations was € 4.06. Inventories fell 4% from June 30 to € 5,739 million. Oct 20, 2026: adidas raised its 2026 operating profit outlook to about € 2.5 billion, from about € 2.3 billion, after preliminary Q3 results. The increase includes about € 200 million from the US tariff refund and about € 100 million from higher profitability, less about € 100 million that adidas will reinvest in Q4 2026. It kept its outlook for currency-neutral revenue growth of 9% to 10%. Sep 11, 2026: adidas cancelled 6,000,000 treasury shares from its share buyback. Its nominal capital fell to € 174,000,000, divided into 174,000,000 shares. The buyback of up to € 1 billion in 2026 was done in two tranches, the second from June 23 to August 12, 2026. Jul 30, 2026: adidas reported Q2 2026 results. Currency-neutral revenues rose 14% to a record € 6.7 billion, with DTC sales up 25%. Gross margin rose to 52.5%. Operating profit rose 5% to € 574 million, after € 212 million more marketing spend for the World Cup. adidas raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 9% to 10% and kept its operating profit target of about € 2.3 billion. Jul 30, 2026: adidas said that Birgit Kretschmer, the CFO of C&A, will join its Executive Board on September 1, 2026. She will succeed Harm Ohlmeyer as CFO at the end of 2026. Mr. Ohlmeyer decided not to extend his mandate after almost 30 years at the company. May 19, 2026: adidas placed a € 500 million bond. It was an early refinancing of a € 400 million bond due in October 2026. Apr 29, 2026: adidas reported Q1 2026 results. Currency-neutral revenues rose 14% to € 6.6 billion. Operating profit rose 16% to € 705 million, and the operating margin rose to 10.7%.
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