AEP changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $127.14 → $127.39(+0.2%)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-30 → 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices AEP for the cost and risk of a very large building plan. AEP plans to invest $78 billion from 2026 through 2030 and sees more than $10 billion of further projects. To pay for this, it issues new debt and new shares: in May 2026, it agreed to sell about 23.5 million new shares through forward sale agreements at an initial price of $124.968 per share. Total debt rose to $52.8 billion at June 30, 2026, from $48.8 billion at December 31, 2025. Regulators and customers also watch power bills closely, and growth depends on data center customers that must take the power as planned. Q2 2026 operating EPS fell to $1.36 from $1.43, partly because of the 2025 sale of a minority interest in transmission. For the gap to close, three things must be true. AEP must earn 2026 operating EPS within its raised guidance of $6.25 to $6.55. The new large load customers must come online under their take-or-pay agreements, so that operating EPS grows 7% to 9% a year through 2030. State regulators must keep approving large load tariffs and new generation. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about on October 3028, 2026, is the next test. The 2027 guidance in early 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a delay in data center demand, which would leave AEP with costly new plants and lines.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 3028, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and new load. Pending. Watch: Year-to-date operating EPS on track for the $6.25 to $6.55 guidance and signed new load at 69 gigawatts or more pass; a cut to the guidance or lost load agreements fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 operating EPS guidance about 7% to 9% above the 2026 result, with the capital plan funded as planned, passes; guidance below 7% growth or a large new share sale fails.