AEP changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $127.14 → $129.21(+1.6%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 28, 2026 → Jan 28, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- American Electric Power (AEP) is one of the largest regulated electric utilities in the United States. Its companies, such as AEP Ohio, AEP Texas and Appalachian Power, deliver power to 5.6 million customers in 11 states. AEP operates the largest electric transmission system in the country, with 40,000 line miles, and more than removed: 252,000 added: 253,000 miles of distribution lines. It owns or contracts about removed: 33,000 added: 34,000 megawatts of generating capacity. State and federal regulators set its rates, so earnings grow mostly with the investment on which its utilities may earn a return. AEP plans to invest removed: $78 added: $100 billion from removed: 2026 added: 2027 through removed: 2030. added: 2031. Data centers, hyperscalers and industrial customers signed agreements for removed: 69 added: 84 gigawatts of new load removed: through 2030. added: by 2031.
- Thesis
- The market prices AEP for the cost and risk of a very large building plan. added: In October 2026, AEP removed: plans added: raised its five-year capital plan to removed: invest $78 added: $100 billion added: for 2027 through 2031, from added: $78 billion for 2026 through removed: 2030 and sees more than $10 billion of further projects. added: 2030. To pay for this, it issues new debt and new removed: shares: in May added: shares. At September 30, 2026, removed: it agreed to sell about removed: 23.5 added: 48 million new shares removed: through added: were still in forward sale removed: agreements at an initial price of $124.968 per share. added: agreements, and the Q3 release did not say how much new equity the larger plan needs. Total debt rose to removed: $52.8 added: $54.4 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, from $48.8 billion at December 31, 2025. Regulators and customers also watch power bills closely, and growth depends on data center customers that must take the power as planned. removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026 operating EPS removed: fell added: rose to removed: $1.36 added: $2.23 from removed: $1.43, partly because of added: $1.80, and AEP expects 2026 operating EPS at or above the removed: 2025 sale added: high end of removed: a minority interest in transmission. added: its $6.25 to $6.55 range. For the gap to close, three things must be true. AEP must earn removed: 2026 added: its new operating EPS removed: within its raised guidance of removed: $6.25 added: $6.75 to removed: $6.55. added: $7.05 for 2027 and $7.40 to $7.70 for 2028, on the way to its target of 9% to 11% growth a year from 2027 through 2031. The added: 84 gigawatts of contracted new removed: large load removed: customers must come online under removed: their take-or-pay removed: agreements, so that operating EPS grows 7% to 9% a year through 2030. added: agreements. State regulators must keep approving large load tariffs and new removed: generation. added: generation, and AEP must fund the plan without a large new share sale. The removed: Q3 added: full-year 2026 report removed: on October 28, 2026, is the next test. The 2027 guidance in early 2027 removed: is added: and the removed: main test. added: funding plan for the larger capital plan are the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a delay in data center demand, which would leave AEP with costly new plants and lines.
- Risks
- Growth depends on large new customers, mostly data centers and hyperscalers, with removed: 69 added: 84 gigawatts of removed: signed added: contracted new load removed: through 2030. added: by 2031. If these customers delay or cancel projects, AEP may build plants and lines that it does not need, although take-or-pay agreements give some protection. The removed: $78 added: $100 billion investment plan added: for 2027 through 2031 needs large amounts of new debt and new shares. Total debt rose to removed: $52.8 added: $54.4 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and removed: AEP agreed to sell about removed: 23.5 added: 48 million new shares added: were still in removed: May 2026. added: forward sale agreements. Higher interest rates or a lower share price make this funding more costly. Regulators in 11 states set AEP's rates. Higher power bills can cause regulators to approve lower returns or smaller rate increases. In Q2 2026, Ohio approved a distribution base rate decrease for customers. added: In 2026, AEP added: also recorded partial disallowances of costs for the Pirkey Plant in Texas and for a tracker mechanism. AEP plans new gas, fuel cell and possibly nuclear generation. Large projects can cost more or take longer than planned, and AEP's head of nuclear development left the company in September 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $375M added: $418M Debt: removed: $52.8B added: $54.4B Net debt: removed: $52.5B added: $54.0B Interest cover: removed: 2.3× added: 2.5× Debt due within 12 months: removed: $4.8B added: $4.6B AEP funds its utilities with long-term bonds, securitization bonds, commercial paper and new shares. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total debt was removed: $52.84 added: $54.42 billion: long-term debt of removed: $50.81 added: $52.54 billion, including removed: $2.82 added: $2.68 billion due within one year, and short-term debt of removed: $2.03 added: $1.88 billion. The amount due within 12 months includes the long-term debt due within one year and the short-term debt. Debt was removed: 61.4% added: 61.5% of total removed: capitalization. added: capitalization, up from 60.3% at December 31, 2025. The debt ratio that its credit agreements define was 56.0%, against a limit of 67.5%. Cash was removed: $375 added: $418 million. AEP had revolving credit facilities of $6.5 billion until April 2031 and $1.5 billion until April 2029, and removed: $1.13 billion added: $975 million of commercial paper was outstanding. added: Net available liquidity was $7.44 billion. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. removed: AEP also uses DOE loans of about $5 billion added: About 48 million shares remained in removed: total for projects that lower customer costs. The forward sale added: agreements, with expected proceeds of about removed: 23.5 million shares can bring about $2.9 added: $5.4 billion removed: of new equity when AEP settles removed: it. added: them by 2028. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and new load. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Year-to-date operating EPS on track for the $6.25 to $6.55 guidance and signed new load at 69 gigawatts or more pass; a cut to the guidance or lost load agreements fail. removed: Feb added: Outcome: AEP expects 2026 operating EPS at or above the high end of $6.25 to $6.55, and contracted new load rose to 84 gigawatts by 2031. Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and removed: 2027 guidance. added: the funding plan. Pending. Watch: removed: 2027 added: 2026 operating EPS added: at or above $6.55, the 2027 guidance removed: about 7% added: of $6.75 to removed: 9% above added: $7.05 kept and a funding plan for the removed: 2026 result, with the added: $100 billion capital plan removed: funded as planned, passes; added: without a large new share sale pass; a guidance removed: below 7% growth added: cut or a large new share sale fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 28, 2026: AEP reported Q3 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $2.18, and operating EPS rose to $2.23 from $1.80. AEP expects 2026 operating EPS at or above the high end of its $6.25 to $6.55 range. It gave operating EPS guidance of $6.75 to $7.05 for 2027 and $7.40 to $7.70 for 2028, and it expects operating EPS growth of 9% to 11% a year from 2027 through 2031. It raised its five-year capital plan to $100 billion through 2031. It signed 15 gigawatts of new load in the quarter, for 84 gigawatts of contracted new load by 2031. Sep 29, 2026: Alicia Knapp, President Nuclear Development of AEP, left the company in an involuntary separation. Jul 30, 2026: AEP reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $1.31 and operating EPS was $1.36, down from $1.43, because of the 2025 transmission minority interest sale and the timing of tax items. AEP raised its 2026 operating EPS guidance to $6.25 to $6.55. Signed new load grew by 6 gigawatts to 69 gigawatts through 2030, and AEP secured about 13 gigawatts of gas turbine capacity. AEP Texas secured a DOE loan of up to $3.3 billion for transmission projects. Jul 20, 2026: The board elected David S. Marriott, Chairman of Marriott International, and Charles J. Meyers, Executive Chairman of Equinix, as directors. May 13, 2026: AEP agreed to sell 23,543,308 new shares through forward sale agreements with three banks, including the underwriters' option of 3,070,866 shares. The initial forward price is $124.968 per share, and AEP expects to settle on or before May 31, 2028. Jan 4, 2026: An unregulated AEP company agreed to buy solid oxide fuel cells for about $2.65 billion for a power plant near Cheyenne, Wyoming. A high investment grade customer agreed to buy all of its output for 20 years, subject to conditions.