AMCR changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $43.85 → $47.39(+8.1%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 12, 2026 → Nov 4, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market doubts that the Berry combination will give Amcor growth and lower debt. Volumes are flat, raw material costs rose fast, and leverage is high. In FY2026, volumes and price/mix together reduced net sales by about 2%, and in Q4 volumes grew only about 0.5%. Free cash flow was $1.3 billion, less than the guidance of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion that Amcor gave on May 6, 2026. Net debt was $12.9 billion at June 30, 2026. So investors price Amcor as a slow-growing packager with too much debt. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Berry synergies must continue on plan; they were about $100 million in Q4 FY2026 and about $240 million in FY2026. Volumes must grow and price increases must cover the higher input costs. Leverage must reach 3.5 to 3.6 times at December 31, 2026, as guided, and fall further in 2027. Amcor must make progress on the sale or restructuring of non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales, of which about $500 million is done or in process. The first evidence comes with the report for the quarter to September 30, 2026, removed: estimated for about added: on November removed: 12, added: 4, 2026. The report for the six-month transition period to December 31, 2026, in early 2027, shows the leverage result. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
- Checkpoints
- Nov removed: 12, 2026 (estimate): added: 4, 2026: Results for the quarter to September 30, 2026. Pending. Watch: Positive volumes, synergies on plan and progress toward adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90 for the transition period pass; falling volumes or a cut to the guidance fail. Feb 15, 2027 (estimate): Transition period results: leverage at December 31, 2026. Pending. Watch: Leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times or lower and guidance for calendar 2027 with EPS growth pass; higher leverage fails. Jun 30, 2027 (estimate): Non-core portfolio sales. Pending. Watch: Agreements to sell or restructure most of the non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales pass; little progress fails.