AMCR changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $47.39 → $44.39(−6.3%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 4, 2026 → Feb 4, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market doubts that the Berry combination will give Amcor growth and lower debt. Volumes removed: are flat, added: grow slowly, raw removed: material added: material, energy and distribution costs rose fast, and leverage is high. In FY2026, volumes and price/mix together reduced net sales by about 2%, and in removed: Q4 added: the quarter to September 30, 2026, volumes grew only about removed: 0.5%. added: 1%. Free cash flow was $1.3 removed: billion, added: billion in FY2026, less than the guidance of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion that Amcor gave on May 6, 2026. Net debt removed: was added: rose from $12.9 billion at June 30, added: 2026 to $14.0 billion at September 30, 2026. So investors price Amcor as a slow-growing packager with too much debt. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Berry synergies must continue on plan; they were about removed: $100 added: $240 million in removed: Q4 FY2026 and about removed: $240 added: $50 million in removed: FY2026. added: the quarter to September 30, 2026. Volumes must grow and price increases must cover the higher input costs. Leverage must reach removed: 3.5 to added: about 3.6 times at December 31, 2026, as removed: guided, added: guided on November 4, 2026, and fall further in 2027. Amcor must make progress on the sale or restructuring of non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales, of which about $500 million is done or in process. removed: The first evidence comes with the report added: On November 4, 2026, Amcor cut its EPS guidance for the removed: quarter added: transition period because it passes higher energy and distribution costs to removed: September 30, 2026, on November 4, 2026. added: customers with a delay; it said these costs will not affect 2027 results. The report for the six-month transition period to December 31, 2026, added: expected in early added: February 2027, shows the leverage removed: result. added: result and the first guidance for calendar 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
- Risks
- Debt is high after the Berry combination. Net debt was added: $14.0 billion at September 30, 2026, up from $12.9 billion at June 30, 2026, removed: and net added: after a free cash outflow of $820 million in the quarter. Net interest expense was $610 million in removed: FY2026. Free cash flow of $1.3 billion was below added: FY2026 and $153 million in the removed: guidance of May added: quarter to September 30, 2026. If cash flow stays weak, leverage falls more slowly and a rating downgrade could raise costs. Raw material costs rose fast in 2026, and the CEO called the input cost inflation unprecedented. added: Energy and distribution costs then rose late in the quarter to September 30, 2026. Amcor passes most removed: resin added: of these cost changes to customers, but with a removed: delay. Price/mix reduced comparable net sales by about 1% in Q4 FY2026. added: delay, so on November 4, 2026 it cut its EPS guidance for the six months to December 31, 2026. Volumes depend on consumer demand for packaged goods. In FY2026, volumes and price/mix together reduced net sales by about removed: 2%. added: 2%, and in the quarter to September 30, 2026 volumes grew only about 1%. Weak consumer spending would slow growth. Amcor reviews non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales for sale or restructuring. Only about $500 million is done or in process. The review can take time, cost money and distract management.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $1.1B added: $832M Debt: removed: $14.0B added: $14.8B Net debt: removed: $12.9B added: $14.0B EBITDA, last 12 months: removed: $3.7B added: $3.6B Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 3.5× added: 3.8× (medium) Interest cover: 3.1× Debt due within 12 months: removed: $150M added: $253M Amcor funds itself with senior notes, commercial paper and bank loans. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, debt was removed: $14.01 added: $14.84 billion: removed: $135 added: $174 million of short-term debt, removed: $15 added: $79 million of current long-term debt and removed: $13.86 added: $14.59 billion of long-term debt. Cash and cash equivalents were removed: $1.12 billion, added: $832 million, and net debt was added: $14.01 billion, up from $12.90 removed: billion. added: billion at June 30, 2026. Free cash flow was an outflow of $820 million in the quarter, because resin price changes tied up working capital. EBITDA is adjusted EBITDA for added: the 12 months to September 30, 2026: $3,673 million for FY2026, removed: which includes Berry added: minus $909 million for the removed: full year. added: quarter to September 30, 2025, plus $883 million for the quarter to September 30, 2026. Interest cover is GAAP operating income divided by net interest expense for removed: FY2026. added: the same 12 months: $1,892 million over $610 million. On November 4, 2026, Amcor guided leverage of removed: 3.5 to added: about 3.6 times at December 31, 2026, measured as net debt divided by 12-month adjusted EBITDA plus share-based compensation. removed: Three added: The FY2026 10-K says that three agencies rate the debt investment grade. Amcor had no share buyback program in FY2026 and removed: pays added: declared a quarterly dividend of removed: 65.0 added: 66.0 cents per removed: share. The figures are the last annual balance sheet before the change to a December year end. added: share on November 4, 2026. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: Results for the quarter to September 30, 2026. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Positive volumes, synergies on plan and progress toward adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90 for the transition period pass; falling volumes or a cut to the guidance fail. added: Outcome: Volumes grew about 1% and synergies were on plan, but Amcor cut its adjusted EPS guidance for the transition period to $1.70 to $1.80 from $1.80 to $1.90. Feb removed: 15, added: 4, 2027 (estimate): Transition period results: leverage at December 31, 2026. Pending. Watch: Leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times or lower and guidance for calendar 2027 with EPS growth pass; higher leverage fails. Jun 30, 2027 (estimate): Non-core portfolio sales. Pending. Watch: Agreements to sell or restructure most of the non-core businesses with about $2.5 billion of sales pass; little progress fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 4, 2026: Amcor reported results for the quarter to September 30, 2026. Net sales rose 7% to $6,129 million, mainly because higher raw material costs passed through to customers. Volumes grew about 1%, Berry synergies were about $50 million and adjusted EPS fell 2% to $0.95. Free cash flow was an outflow of $820 million and net debt rose to $14,011 million. Amcor cut its adjusted EPS guidance for the six months to December 31, 2026 to $1.70 to $1.80 from $1.80 to $1.90, and now expects leverage of about 3.6 times at December 31, 2026. It raised the quarterly dividend to 66.0 cents per share. Sep 29, 2026: Amcor said that Graeme Liebelt, its chair for nearly 13 years, will not stand for re-election and leaves the board at the November 11, 2026 annual meeting. Tom Long, a director since 2017 and a former CEO of MillerCoors, becomes chair after the meeting. Sep 29, 2026: Amcor set its 2026 annual meeting of shareholders for November 11, 2026. Shareholders will vote on a new 2026 Omnibus Management Share Plan, among other items. Aug 12, 2026: Amcor reported FY2026 results. Net sales rose 57% to $23.5 billion, mainly because of Berry. Net income was $1,106 million, adjusted EBITDA was $3,673 million and adjusted EPS rose 13% to $4.02. Free cash flow was $1,303 million and net debt was $12,897 million. For the six months to December 31, 2026, Amcor guided adjusted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90 and leverage of 3.5 to 3.6 times. It raised the quarterly dividend to 65.0 cents per share. Aug 11, 2026: Amcor's board accepted the resignation of PwC Switzerland as auditor at the request of the audit committee and appointed PwC US, effective August 14, 2026. Jun 15, 2026: Amcor appointed Ryan Yost, formerly of Avery Dennison, as President of Global Flexible Packaging Solutions, and Kate Pearlman, formerly of Lowe's, as Senior Vice President for Investor Relations and Treasury. May 6, 2026: Amcor reported Q3 FY2026 results. Net sales rose 77% to $5,914 million, synergies were $77 million and adjusted EPS rose 6% to $0.96. Amcor cut its FY2026 free cash flow guidance to $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion and gave adjusted EPS guidance of $3.98 to $4.03. It had six divestiture agreements under its portfolio program. May 1, 2026: Amcor's board changed the fiscal year end from June 30 to December 31. Amcor will report a six-month transition period from July 1 to December 31, 2026, and calendar years from 2027.