AR changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $38.65 → $38.21(−1.1%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 28, 2026 → Jan 28, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Antero Resources produces natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and some oil from the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia. It is one of the largest gas producers in the Appalachian Basin. On February 3, 2026, it bought HG Energy II Production Holdings, with about 385,000 net acres in the core of the Marcellus Shale, for $2.8 billion in cash. Net production was a record removed: 4.1 added: 4.2 Bcfe per day in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. Antero uses firm transport contracts to move its gas and NGLs out of the basin, and it uses hedges to reduce the effect of price changes.
- Thesis
- The market prices Antero for weak natural gas prices and for the debt from removed: the HG Energy purchase. added: its 2026 purchases. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, Antero's average realized gas price before hedges was removed: $2.66 added: $2.63 per Mcf, and added: low prices in the removed: Henry Hub price was 16% lower than a year earlier. added: region made it curtail about 10 Bcfe of production. Total debt rose to removed: $2.61 added: $2.78 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, from $1.40 billion at December 31, 2025, because Antero borrowed to removed: pay for added: buy HG removed: Energy. added: Energy and other properties in its area. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Gas prices must stay at or above the levels of 2026, helped by new LNG export plants and data center demand. Antero must reach its plan to cut cash costs by $0.70 per Mcfe from 2025 to the end of 2028, so that margins grow even if prices stay low. Free cash flow must pay down removed: the $1.1 billion term loan added: debt and keep the buybacks going. The Q3 2026 report added: showed progress on removed: October 28, 2026 shows the first full quarter after the July acquisitions. added: costs: cash production expense fell to $2.05 per Mcfe, from $2.44 a year earlier. Winter gas prices and the Q4 2026 report added: with the 2027 plan, expected in early removed: 2027 added: 2027, give the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of low gas prices, which Antero cannot control.
- Risks
- Results depend on the prices of natural gas and NGLs, which Antero cannot control. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, removed: the Henry Hub added: Antero's realized gas price added: before hedges was removed: 16% lower than a year earlier. added: $2.63 per Mcf, $0.32 below the index price. Hedges for 2027 cover only part of production. Debt rose to removed: $2.61 added: $2.78 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, after the HG Energy removed: purchase. added: purchase and the July 2026 purchase of properties. If prices stay low, it takes longer to repay the term loan, and less cash is left for buybacks. Antero needs pipeline and processing capacity to move its gas and NGLs. Outages, curtailments or limits on new pipelines in the Appalachian Basin can lower production and prices. Antero removed: forecast 5 added: curtailed about 10 Bcfe added: in Q3 2026 because of added: low regional prices, and it expects 15 to 20 Bcfe of curtailments in removed: Q3 added: Q4 2026. The cost plan expects savings of $0.70 per Mcfe by the end of 2028. If the integration of HG Energy or the changes to transport contracts give less than planned, margins grow more slowly.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $0.0M Debt: removed: $2.6B added: $2.8B Net debt: removed: $2.6B added: $2.8B Debt due within 12 months: removed: $182M added: $451M Last debt due: 2036 Antero funds itself with senior notes, a term loan, added: commercial paper and a revolving credit removed: facility and commercial paper. added: facility. Total debt was removed: $2.61 added: $2.78 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, up from added: $2.61 billion at June 30, 2026 and $1.40 billion at December 31, 2025. It was removed: $1.1 added: $1.0 billion of term loan, $750 million of 5.400% notes due 2036, $600 million of 5.375% notes due removed: 2030, $182 added: 2030 and $451 million of commercial removed: paper and $2.7 million on the credit facility, added: paper, less issuance costs. removed: Antero repaid its 7.625% notes due 2029 in added: Nothing was drawn on the removed: first half added: credit facility at September 30, 2026, which had lender commitments of removed: 2026. added: $1.65 billion and available capacity of $1.64 billion. Antero keeps unused capacity on the facility at least equal to its commercial paper. It had no removed: cash at June 30, 2026, added: cash, so net debt was also removed: $2.61 added: $2.78 billion. added: Debt rose in Q3 2026 because Antero paid about $315 million in July 2026 for properties in its West Virginia area. Adjusted EBITDAX was removed: $595 added: $634 million in removed: Q2 2026. added: Q3 2026, and the CEO said that leverage stayed at about 1.0 times. Antero had about removed: $880 added: $821 million left under its share repurchase removed: program. added: program at the end of Q3 2026. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: production and costs. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Production within the guidance of 4.25 to 4.3 Bcfe per day, lower unit costs and free cash flow that reduces debt pass; a large fall in cash flow or higher costs fail. removed: Feb 15, added: Outcome: Costs fell below guidance and adjusted EBITDAX almost doubled, but production of 4.23 Bcfe per day was below the 4.25 to 4.3 guidance after curtailments, and debt rose to $2.78 billion after the July purchase. Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 report and 2027 plan. Pending. Watch: A 2027 plan with lower costs, steady production and debt repayment pass; higher capital spending without more cash flow, or rising debt, fail.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 28, 2026: Antero reported Q3 2026 results. Net production was a record 4.2 Bcfe per day, up 23% from a year earlier, after curtailments of about 10 Bcfe because of low regional prices. Net income was $367 million and adjusted EBITDAX was $634 million, up 99%. Adjusted free cash flow was $215 million, and Antero bought back 1.6 million shares for about $56 million. Cash production expense fell to $2.05 per Mcfe, from $2.44 a year earlier. Antero expects Q4 2026 production of about 4.3 Bcfe per day, with 15 to 20 Bcfe of curtailments, and high single digit production growth in 2027. Oct 28, 2026: Antero said that new firm transport agreements in Q3 2026 for about 400 MMcf per day of gas add about $20 million of free cash flow each year. It expects $140 million of its $300 million margin plan by mid-2027. It also signed supply contracts for 265 MMcf per day of gas at Clarington, Ohio. Oct 14, 2026: Antero said it will report Q3 2026 results on October 28, 2026, after the market closes, and hold its call on October 29, 2026. Jul 29, 2026: Antero reported Q2 2026 results. Net production was a record 4.1 Bcfe per day, up 21% from a year earlier. Net income was $279 million and adjusted EBITDAX was $595 million, up 57%. Adjusted free cash flow before working capital was $220 million. Antero raised its 2026 production guidance to 4.15 to 4.2 Bcfe per day and lowered its cash production expense guidance. Jul 29, 2026: Antero bought properties in its West Virginia area for about $315 million in July 2026, with about 125 MMcfe per day of net production. On June 30, 2026, the Martica overriding royalty interests went back to Antero, which it expects to add about $60 million of cash flow each year. Jun 16, 2026: Antero started a commercial paper program for short-term unsecured notes. It must keep unused capacity under its revolving credit facility at least equal to the commercial paper outstanding. Feb 3, 2026: Antero completed the purchase of HG Energy II Production Holdings for $2.8 billion in cash. It paid with cash, a new $1.5 billion three-year term loan and other debt.