ATD changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- CA$80.98 → CA$82.35(+1.7%)
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Couche-Tard for the risk that high U.S. fuel margins fall and for slow growth in store sales. U.S. fuel margins were 52.61 cents per gallon in Q1 fiscal 2027, up 8.61 cents from a year earlier, while U.S. same-store fuel volumes fell 1.6%. Same-store merchandise sales grew only 1.7% in the U.S. and were flat in Canada, where tobacco sales are weak. The company also plans to buy Żabka in Poland for about $8.6 billion, which raises net debt to about 3.0 times adjusted EBITDA at closing. All amounts are in U.S. dollars. For the gap to close, three things must be true. U.S. fuel margins must stay near present levels or fall only slowly. Same-store merchandise sales must keep growing. The Żabka deal must close, add to EPS by the second year and let leverage return to the company's framework. The Q2 fiscal 2027 removed: report, expected in late added: report on November added: 24, 2026, and the Żabka closing, expected by December 2026, give the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a fall in fuel margins, which can lower earnings quickly.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 24, removed: 2026 (estimate): added: 2026: Q2 fiscal 2027 results: fuel margins and store sales. Pending. Watch: U.S. fuel margins near the 52.61 cents per gallon of Q1, positive U.S. same-store merchandise sales and lower costs pass; a large fall in fuel margins or negative same-store sales fail. Dec 2026 (estimate): Żabka tender offer closing. Pending. Watch: A closing by December 2026 with the required approvals and net debt near 3.0 times adjusted EBITDA passes; a block by regulators, a long delay or higher leverage fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 30, 2026: Couche-Tard said that it will release Q2 fiscal 2027 results on November 24, 2026, after the Toronto Stock Exchange closes, and hold a call on November 25, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time. Sep 1, 2026: Couche-Tard reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue rose 25.1% to $21.7 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose 10.5% to $1.78 billion. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 15.4% to $0.90. U.S. same-store merchandise sales rose 1.7%, and the U.S. fuel margin rose to 52.61 cents per gallon. The leverage ratio fell to 1.77 times. The company declared a quarterly dividend of CA$0.215 per share. Jul 31, 2026: Couche-Tard agreed to buy control of Żabka Group, the largest convenience store operator in Poland with more than 13,000 stores, through a tender offer at PLN 32.00 per share. The offer values Żabka at about $8.6 billion. Shareholders with about 57% of the shares agreed to tender. Committed debt facilities fund the deal, and the company expects net debt of about 3.0 times adjusted EBITDA at closing and EPS growth from the deal by the second year. Jul 23, 2026: Couche-Tard renewed its share repurchase program. It can buy back up to 74.2 million shares, 10% of the public float, until July 22, 2027. Jun 22, 2026: Couche-Tard reported fiscal 2026 results. Revenue rose 5.0% to $76.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose 12.7% to $6.71 billion. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 14.4% to $3.10. Q4 results included a net recovery of $260.9 million before tax, mainly from a settlement of U.S. payment card fee litigation. The company bought back 30.0 million shares for $1.6 billion in fiscal 2026.