ATO changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $167.34 → $175.65(+5.0%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 4, 2026 → Feb 4, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices Atmos as a safe utility whose growth depends on large capital spending that it must pay for with new shares and debt. Atmos added: spent $4.2 billion in fiscal 2026 and expects removed: capital spending of about removed: $4.2 added: $4.5 billion in fiscal removed: 2026, added: 2027 and removed: it completed about removed: $2.2 added: $29 billion added: through fiscal 2031, which needs about $17 billion of added: new long-term financing from debt and removed: equity financing in the first nine months. added: shares. Higher interest rates make this financing more costly and make utility shares less attractive than bonds. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Regulators, mostly in Texas, must keep approving rate increases that recover the spending, as they did with removed: $355.0 added: $395.4 million of annualized outcomes in removed: the first nine months of fiscal 2026. Earnings per share must grow added: 6% to 8% a year as planned, from $8.49 in removed: line with the plan, after the fiscal 2026 added: to the fiscal 2027 guidance of removed: $8.40 added: $9.05 to removed: $8.50. added: $9.25 and $12.35 to $12.55 in fiscal 2031. The equity share of capital must stay near 60%, so that credit quality stays strong. The fiscal 2026 report on November 4, removed: 2026, added: 2026 met these tests. The next evidence comes with removed: fiscal 2027 guidance added: rate outcomes and removed: a five-year plan to fiscal 2031, gives the removed: main test. added: fiscal Q1 2027 report, expected in early February 2027. If these checks added: continue to pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a rise in interest rates, which lowers the value of all utility shares.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $521M Debt: $10.3B Net debt: $9.7B Undrawn credit line: $3.1B Debt due within 12 months: $503M Last debt due: 2056 added: Ratings: Moody's A2 (stable outlook), S&P A- (stable outlook) Atmos has a strong investment grade balance sheet. added: The figures are from the 10-Q for June 30, 2026, because the fiscal 2026 10-K was not yet filed on November 5, 2026. At June 30, 2026, long-term debt was $9.75 billion and current maturities were $503 million, so total debt was $10.25 billion. Cash was $521.0 million, and there was no short-term debt. The added: fiscal 2026 results of November 4, 2026 give the position at September 30, 2026: the equity share of total capitalization was removed: 59.8%. Total added: 60%, available liquidity was about removed: $4.6 added: $3.8 billion, removed: with $936.8 added: and $870.9 million of proceeds added: was still available from forward sales of shares removed: and $3.09 added: at $156.42 per share. Atmos issued $1.3 billion of removed: unused credit facilities. The main $1.5 billion facility now matures on March 28, 2031. After June 30, added: long-term debt in fiscal 2026, removed: Atmos added: and it had $437 million still available under its at-the-market program for new shares at September 30, 2026. After that date, it issued $700 million of 6.000% notes due 2036 on October 9, 2026. removed: It also has an at-the-market program for new shares, added: Moody's rates the senior notes A2 and S&P rates them A-, both with removed: $506.5 million still available at June 30, 2026. added: a stable outlook. The main $1.5 billion credit facility matures on March 28, 2031. The five-year plan of November 4, 2026 needs about $17 billion of new long-term financing to fiscal 2031, from debt and new shares. Its longest notes mature in 2056. As of Jun 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: Fiscal 2026 results and five-year plan. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Fiscal 2026 EPS within $8.40 to $8.50, fiscal 2027 guidance with growth near the plan and a five-year plan with steady rate base growth pass; lower guidance or a weaker equity share fail. added: Outcome: Fiscal 2026 EPS was $8.49, fiscal 2027 guidance of $9.05 to $9.25 is about 7% to 9% higher, the new plan expects rate base of $45 billion to $47 billion by fiscal 2031, and the equity share stayed at 60%. Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings: rate outcomes. Pending. Watch: New rate outcomes in Texas and other states in line with the plan pass; a large rate case denial or a cut in guidance fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 4, 2026: Atmos reported fiscal 2026 results. Net income was $1.4 billion, or $8.49 per diluted share, inside its guidance of $8.40 to $8.50. Capital spending was $4.2 billion, and annualized rate outcomes were $395.4 million. It guided fiscal 2027 EPS to $9.05 to $9.25 and capital spending to about $4.5 billion. Its new five-year plan has about $29 billion of capital spending, rate base of $45 billion to $47 billion by fiscal 2031 and EPS growth of 6% to 8% a year. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.09 per share, 9.0% higher. Nov 4, 2026: Atmos said that its chair, Kim R. Cocklin, will retire from the board at the 2027 annual meeting because of the mandatory retirement age. CEO J. Kevin Akers will then also become chair, and Nancy K. Quinn stays lead director. Oct 9, 2026: Atmos completed a public offering of $700 million of 6.000% senior notes due 2036. Net proceeds were about $691 million. Oct 6, 2026: Atmos said it will report fiscal 2026 results on November 4, 2026, after the market closes. On the call on November 5, 2026, it plans to give fiscal 2027 guidance and update its five-year plan to fiscal 2031. Oct 1, 2026: New rates for the Mid-Tex Division took effect under a Rate Review Mechanism settlement with the Atmos Cities Steering Committee, a group of 182 Texas cities. The settlement adds $260.5 million of annual revenue. Atmos had asked for $291.1 million. These figures come from local press reports of the city approvals. Aug 10, 2026: Atmos said that John S. McDill, Senior Vice President of Utility Operations, will retire in early 2027. Jeff D. Martinez became Senior Vice President of Utility Operations on October 1, 2026. James H. Jeffries IV joined the board on September 1, 2026. Aug 5, 2026: Atmos reported fiscal Q3 2026 results. Net income for the first nine months was $1.2 billion, or $7.33 per diluted share, up from $1.02 billion. Capital spending was $3.1 billion. Atmos reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance of $8.40 to $8.50 per diluted share and declared a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share. Jun 18, 2026: Atmos completed a public offering of $700 million of 4.750% senior notes due 2032.