AZN changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $165.41 → $186.65(+12.8%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 30, 2026 → Feb 9, 2027
- Thesis
- The market prices AstraZeneca at a discount because it doubts that the pipeline can deliver the $80 billion revenue goal for 2030. Part of the value of the stock depends on drugs that are still in trials. Three large trials failed in 2026. On July 9, the Wainua heart trial (CARDIO-TTRansform) did not meet its main goal, and the shares fell about 9% in early trading. In August, AstraZeneca stopped a Phase III lung cancer trial of volrustomig, and in September, the SERENA-4 breast cancer trial of Etcamah did not meet its main goal. After the Wainua result, HSBC cut its rating to Hold and said that the 2030 goal depends on a group of higher-risk trials. At the same time, Farxiga lost US patent protection and China price cuts (volume-based procurement) reduce sales of older drugs. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue must keep growing by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage and Core EPS by a low double-digit percentage in 2026, as guided on July 27. Most of the more than twenty important trial results that AstraZeneca expects over the next 18 months must be positive, mainly in cancer. New drugs such as Enhertu in early breast cancer, Datroway, and Baxfendy must grow fast enough to replace the lost Farxiga sales. The removed: first check is the Q3 2026 report on October 30, removed: 2026, and then added: 2026 kept the added: 2026 guidance, with Core EPS up 14% in the first nine months. The next check is the 2027 guidance with the removed: full-year report, expected in added: FY 2026 report on February added: 9, 2027. If the trials and launches go well, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If more large trials fail, the market can keep a lower value on the pipeline for longer.
- Risks
- The 2030 revenue goal depends on many trials that are still running. Wainua, volrustomig, and Etcamah had Phase III failures in 2026, and in October 2026 the HICKORY trial of efzimfotase alfa did not meet its main goal. More failures can lower the value that the market gives to the pipeline. Older drugs lose sales. Farxiga lost US patent protection, and China volume-based procurement cuts the prices of several older drugs. New drugs must grow fast enough to replace these sales. The US gave about 42% of revenue in the first half of 2026. US drug price rules, Medicare price talks, and tariffs on imported medicines can reduce prices and profits. China is a large market for AstraZeneca. Political tension, price cuts, and government investigations in China can reduce sales there. Net debt rose by removed: $3.5 added: $2.5 billion in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026 to removed: $26.9 billion, and the added: $25.8 billion. The $2 billion Summit investment removed: adds added: in October 2026 and restructuring costs of up to added: $2.0 billion add to the cash outflow. More large deals can slow the fall of debt.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $5.0B added: $8.2B Debt: removed: $29.5B added: $31.4B Net debt: removed: $24.5B added: $23.2B EBITDA, last 12 months: removed: $20.3B added: $21.2B Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 1.2× added: 1.1× (low) Interest cover: 11× Undrawn credit line: $4.9B, to April 2031 Debt due within 12 months: removed: $5.8B added: $4.9B Ratings: Moody's A1, S&P A+ AstraZeneca funds itself with bonds, commercial paper, and cash from its medicines. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, gross debt was removed: $32.2 added: $34.2 billion including removed: $2.7 added: $2.8 billion of lease liabilities, and debt here excludes the leases. Net debt, as the company states it, was removed: $26.9 added: $25.8 billion, up removed: $3.5 added: $2.5 billion in removed: six added: nine months. It includes leases and nets removed: $0.4 added: $0.2 billion of derivatives. added: Cash here is cash and other investments of $8.2 billion. EBITDA is for the 12 months to removed: June added: September 30, 2026, from the FY removed: 2025 and added: 2025, H1 2026 added: and 9M 2026 reports. Interest cover is reported operating profit divided by net finance expense for removed: H1 added: the first nine months of 2026. Debt due within 12 months is the overdrafts, commercial paper, and current loans at removed: June added: September 30, 2026; the company says removed: $6.2 added: $5.4 billion of borrowings are due within one year. The committed bank facilities added: of $4.9 billion are available until April 2031 and have no financial covenants. removed: After June 30, AstraZeneca issued added: The €2.55 billion of bonds added: issued on September 1, added: 2026 are in the debt. On October 5, 2026, removed: and added: after the balance sheet date, AstraZeneca paid $2 billion for Summit Therapeutics removed: shares on October 5, 2026. added: shares. The ratings did not change in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth without Farxiga and pipeline news. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Revenue growth at constant exchange rates in the mid-to-high single digits with the 2026 guidance kept passes; a cut to guidance or slower growth of the new cancer drugs fails. added: Outcome: Total Revenue rose 7% and Core EPS rose 14% at constant exchange rates in the first nine months, Oncology grew 16%, and AstraZeneca kept its 2026 guidance. Feb removed: 2027 (estimate): added: 9, 2027: FY 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for revenue and Core EPS growth that keeps the $80 billion goal for 2030 in reach passes; lower guidance or a weaker 2030 goal fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): Next group of Phase III results. Pending. Watch: Positive results in most of the important trials that AstraZeneca expects over the next 18 months pass; another large Phase III failure fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 30, 2026: AstraZeneca reported 9M and Q3 2026 results. Q3 Total Revenue was $16.2 billion, up 7% at constant exchange rates, and Q3 Core EPS was $2.79, up 19%. For the first nine months, Total Revenue was $46.9 billion, up 7%, and Core EPS was $8.00, up 14%. Oncology revenue rose 16% and Farxiga revenue fell 15% in the nine months. AstraZeneca kept its 2026 guidance and reported 12 positive Phase III readouts in 2026 to date. It will publish its FY 2026 results on February 9, 2027. Oct 30, 2026: AstraZeneca started the Reshaping for Sustainable Growth programme. It expects one-time restructuring costs of up to $2.0 billion and $1.5 billion of yearly pre-tax savings at the run rate, which it will put back into the pipeline. It expects to complete the programme by the end of 2029. Oct 11, 2026: The HICKORY Phase III trial of efzimfotase alfa in adolescents and adults with hypophosphatasia did not meet its main goal. The gain in the six-minute walk test was 17.05 metres against placebo, which was not statistically significant. AstraZeneca said that patients on placebo did better than expected, and it will continue to develop the drug. The FDA gave the drug Priority Review in September 2026. Oct 5, 2026: AstraZeneca completed a $2 billion equity investment in Summit Therapeutics. The two companies will test Summit's PD-1/VEGF antibody ivonescimab together with AstraZeneca's antibody drug conjugates, first in stomach and gut cancers. On October 2, AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo also agreed to test Datroway with ivonescimab. Sep 14, 2026: The SERENA-4 Phase III trial of Etcamah (camizestrant) with palbociclib in first-line advanced ER-positive breast cancer did not meet its main goal of longer progression-free survival. Etcamah stays approved for patients with an ESR1 mutation, based on the SERENA-6 trial. Sep 8, 2026: AstraZeneca reported that Imfinzi with Imdelltra gave a statistically significant improvement in overall survival in small cell lung cancer. On September 7, the US approved Etcamah with a CDK4/6 inhibitor for first-line advanced breast cancer with an ESR1 mutation. Aug 25, 2026: AstraZeneca priced €2.55 billion of bonds in four parts, due from 2030 to 2038, with coupons from 3.402% to 4.169%. The bonds were issued on September 1, 2026. Aug 17, 2026: AstraZeneca stopped the eVOLVE-Lung02 Phase III trial of volrustomig with chemotherapy in first-line lung cancer, because the data monitoring committee said that it was unlikely to meet its main goals. On the same day, it reported positive Phase III results for Enhertu and for Tagrisso with Orpathys in lung cancer. Jul 27, 2026: AstraZeneca reported H1 2026 results. Total revenue was $30.7 billion, up 6% at constant exchange rates, and Core EPS was $5.21, up 11%. It kept its 2026 guidance and said that it is on track for its $80 billion revenue goal for 2030. It raised the interim dividend to $1.06 per share. Jul 9, 2026: The CARDIO-TTRansform Phase III trial of Wainua in transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy did not meet its main goal. The shares fell about 9% in early trading in London. On July 13, HSBC cut its rating to Hold.