BMRN changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $56.05 → $55.21(−1.5%)
- Discount
- 26% to 46% → 28% to 46%(+2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-26 → 2026-11-06
- Thesis
- The market fears that VOXZOGO, BioMarin's main growth driver, will lose patients to Ascendis's Yuviwel, a weekly CNP injection, while VOXZOGO is a daily injection. It also doubts the value of the Amicus purchase, which BioMarin paid for mostly with $3.65 billion of new debt, and it notes pipeline setbacks: BMN 401 failed one of two main goals in its pivotal study, and BioMarin stopped VOXZOGO in Noonan syndrome. The settlement with Ascendis reduces this fear in part, because Ascendis pays royalties of 20% of U.S. Yuviwel sales until May 2030. For the gap to close, four things must be true. VOXZOGO must reach at least $1 billion of revenue in 2026 and keep growing in 2027 with Yuviwel on the market. The FDA must approve VOXZOGO for hypochondroplasia, for a launch in 2027, and give full approval in achondroplasia by the target date of February 28, 2027. GALAFOLD and POMBILITI + OPFOLDA must keep growing, with about $220 million of non-GAAP cost savings by 2028. Gross leverage must fall below 2.5 times by mid-2027, and BioMarin must repay the $600 million of convertible notes due in May 2027. The first evidence comes with the Q3 2026 report, estimated for about October 26November 6, 2026, which will also update the hypochondroplasia application. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 26Nov 6, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings and hypochondroplasia update. Pending. Watch: VOXZOGO revenue on track for at least $1 billion in 2026 and an FDA review of the hypochondroplasia application on schedule pass; lower VOXZOGO guidance or a delay fails. Feb 28, 2027: FDA decision on full approval of VOXZOGO in achondroplasia. Pending. Watch: Full approval by the target date passes; a rejection or a delay fails. Jun 30, 2027 (estimate): Gross leverage below 2.5 times. Pending. Watch: Gross leverage below 2.5 times by mid-2027 and repayment of the May 2027 convertible notes pass; higher leverage fails.