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Price: $85.09
Discount category: Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings: 2027-02-11
Next earnings is estimate: Yes
Company name: Anheuser-Busch InBev
Sector: Beer
About: Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) is the largest brewer in the world. It sells more than 400 beer brands, including Budweiser, Corona, Stella Artois, Michelob Ultra, Bud Light, Modelo Especial, Brahma and Castle, and Beyond Beer drinks such as Cutwater. It has about 137,000 employees in more than 40 countries. Its regions are North America, Middle Americas, South America, EMEA and Asia Pacific. Revenue was $59.3 billion in 2025. Its business-to-business platform BEES connects it with more than 6 million customers. AB InBev is based in Leuven, Belgium, and its main listing is on Euronext Brussels. It reports in U.S. dollars, and each ADS on the New York Stock Exchange represents one ordinary share.
Thesis: The market doubts that AB InBev can grow profit while beer volumes are weak in some large markets. In Q3 2026, U.S. sales to retailers fell 3.1% and U.S. EBITDA fell 4.0%. In China, volumes fell 16.8% and EBITDA fell 30.5%. Total volumes grew only 0.4%, so growth depends on higher prices and premium brands. Debt is also high. Net debt was $64.2 billion, or 2.86 times normalized EBITDA, at June 30, 2026, and the company's target is about 2 times. For the gap to close, three things must be true. EBITDA must keep growing within the medium-term outlook of 4% to 8%, with help from premium brands, no-alcohol beer and Beyond Beer. The declines in volume in the U.S. and China must stop. Free cash flow must stay at about the 2025 level of $11.3 billion or higher, so that net debt falls toward 2 times EBITDA while the company completes its $6 billion buyback. The full-year 2026 report, expected in mid-February 2027, gives the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close within one to two years.
Risks: Beer volumes fall in two large markets. In Q3 2026, U.S. sales to retailers fell 3.1%, and China volumes fell 16.8% with EBITDA down 30.5%. If these declines continue, growth must come only from price and mix. Net debt was $64.2 billion, or 2.86 times normalized EBITDA, at June 30, 2026. The target is about 2 times. Debt limits how much cash the company can return to shareholders. AB InBev reports in U.S. dollars, but it earns much of its profit in other currencies in Latin America, Africa, Europe and Asia. A stronger dollar lowers reported profit. Its business in Argentina uses hyperinflation accounting. Higher commodity and transport costs can reduce margins. In Q3 2026, commodity costs and more sales and marketing spending caused the EBITDA margin to fall by 34 basis points.
Balance sheet: Cash: $8.0B Debt: $72.3B Net debt: $64.2B Net debt / EBITDA: 2.9× (medium) Undrawn credit line: $10.1B Debt due within 12 months: $3.4B Ratings: S&P A- (positive outlook), Moody's A3 (positive outlook) AB InBev's debt comes mainly from past purchases, such as its 2016 combination with SAB. At June 30, 2026, interest-bearing loans and borrowings were $72.3 billion, and cash, cash equivalents and short-term investment securities were $8.0 billion. Net debt was $64.2 billion, up from $60.9 billion at December 31, 2025, because the company paid $2.9 billion for the minority stake in its U.S. metal container plants. Net debt was 2.86 times normalized EBITDA, and the target is about 2 times. Of the bonds, 98% have a fixed rate and 52% are in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. The company expects an average gross debt coupon of about 4% in 2026. Total liquidity was $18.1 billion, including $10.1 billion of undrawn committed long-term credit facilities. S&P rated AB InBev A- and Moody's rated it A3, both with a positive outlook, at the date of the 2025 Form 20-F. The Q3 2026 report did not give a new net debt figure. As of 2026-06-30.
Checkpoints: Feb 11, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: EBITDA growth of 4% or more for 2026, free cash flow near or above $11.3 billion and lower net debt to EBITDA pass; EBITDA growth below 4% or rising leverage fail. 2027 (estimate): U.S. and China volumes. Pending. Watch: Stable U.S. sales to retailers and a return to volume growth in China pass; further declines in both markets fail.
Recent events: 2026-10-29: AB InBev reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue grew 4.9% on an organic basis to $16.51 billion, and volumes grew 0.4%. Normalized EBITDA grew 3.9% to $5.96 billion, and Underlying EPS rose 22.4% to $1.21. U.S. EBITDA fell 4.0%, and China volumes fell 16.8%. The company expects 2026 EBITDA growth within its medium-term outlook of 4% to 8%. It approved an interim dividend of EUR 0.40 per share, up from EUR 0.15, and it had completed $2.6 billion of its $6 billion buyback by October 26, 2026. 2026-07-30: AB InBev reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 5.6% on an organic basis, normalized EBITDA grew 5.8% to $5.94 billion and Underlying EPS rose 23.4% to $1.21. Free cash flow for the first half was $3.9 billion, up $2.5 billion. Net debt rose to $64.2 billion, or 2.86 times normalized EBITDA, after the company paid $2.9 billion to buy back the 49.9% minority stake in its U.S. metal container plants. 2026-05-05: AB InBev reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue grew 5.8% on an organic basis, beer volumes grew 1.2% and normalized EBITDA grew 5.3% to $5.44 billion. Underlying EPS rose 20.8% to $0.97. 2026-02-12: AB InBev reported full-year 2025 results. Revenue was $59.3 billion, up 2.0% on an organic basis, and normalized EBITDA grew 4.9% to $21.2 billion. Underlying EPS was $3.73, and free cash flow was $11.3 billion. Net debt was 2.87 times normalized EBITDA at December 31, 2025. The Board proposed a final dividend of EUR 1.00 per share, for a total of EUR 1.15 for 2025. 2025-10-30: AB InBev announced a share buyback program of $6 billion.