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BXP

Current
Price
$63.44
Discount category
Well below intrinsic value
Next earnings
Jan 27, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
BXP
Sector
Office REIT
About
BXP is the largest publicly traded developer, owner and manager of premier office buildings in the United States. It owns 162 properties with 50.6 million square feet, including joint ventures, in Boston, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, DC. About 90% of its rent comes from clients in central business districts. It also develops new buildings, such as 343 Madison Avenue in New York, and laboratory buildings for life sciences companies. BXP is a real estate investment trust (REIT), so it pays out most of its taxable income as dividends.
Thesis
The market prices BXP for weak office demand and high debt. Investors fear that companies need less office space because of hybrid work. Higher interest rates raise the cost of refinancing its debt, and BXP's share of net debt was 7.52 times its share of annualized EBITDAre at September 30, 2026. Occupancy now rises: total occupancy was 89.4% at September 30, 2026, the fourth quarterly gain in a row. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Occupancy must keep rising, because about 1.1 million square feet of signed leases are due to start, about half of them before the end of 2026. BXP must sell assets as planned and reduce leverage. New developments, such as 343 Madison Avenue, must lease up at good rents. BXP must refinance large loans at fair rates, such as the $2.3 billion mortgage on the GM Building due in June 2027. The full-year 2026 report and the 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, give the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close, but slowly, over several years, as leases start and debt falls. The main reason it may not close is a longer fall in office demand, which BXP cannot control.
Risks
Office demand is weak where companies use less space. If clients leave when leases end, occupancy and cash flow can fall. BXP had $16.6 billion of consolidated debt at September 30, 2026, before it repaid $1.0 billion of notes on October 1, 2026, and its share of net debt was 7.52 times its share of annualized EBITDAre. Higher interest rates raise the cost of refinancing maturing debt, such as the $2.3 billion mortgage on the GM Building due in June 2027. Development projects such as 343 Madison Avenue need large investment. If leasing is slow or costs rise, returns can be lower than planned. BXP plans to sell assets to reduce leverage. Weak demand for office buildings can force sales at low prices, as the impairment on Sumner Square showed.
Balance sheet
Cash: $1.5B Debt: $16.6B Net debt: $15.1B Net debt / EBITDA: 7.5× (high) Interest cover: 3.0× BXP has high debt. Consolidated debt was $16.59 billion at September 30, 2026, and cash was $1.47 billion. Both were high at the quarter end, because BXP held the money from its $700 million of 6.050% notes due 2036 to repay $1.0 billion of 2.750% notes, which it repaid at par on October 1, 2026. BXP's share of net debt, which adds its share of joint venture debt and takes out its partners' share, was $14.89 billion, 7.52 times its share of annualized Q3 2026 EBITDAre of $1.98 billion, down from 7.94 times at June 30, 2026. The interest coverage ratio was 2.98 times without capitalized interest, down from 3.12 times in Q2 2026. At September 30, 2026, $247 million was drawn on the unsecured line of credit and $750 million of commercial paper was outstanding. The largest near maturity is the $2.3 billion mortgage on the GM Building, in which BXP owns 60%, due on June 9, 2027. The quarterly dividend was $0.70 per share. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: occupancy and leasing. Passed. Watch: Occupancy above the 88.4% of Q2, FFO within $1.80 to $1.82 per share and steady leasing pass; lower occupancy or a cut in FFO guidance fail. Outcome: Total occupancy rose to 89.4%, FFO of $1.89 per share beat the guide, and BXP raised its 2026 FFO guidance to $7.06 to $7.08 per share. Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 report and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 FFO guidance above 2026 and progress on asset sales and leverage pass; lower guidance or higher leverage fail. Jun 9, 2027: GM Building mortgage refinanced. Pending. Watch: A refinancing of the $2.3 billion GM Building mortgage before it is due, at a rate BXP can carry, passes; a default, a large paydown with new equity or a much higher rate fails.
Recent events
Oct 27, 2026: BXP reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 4.6% to $911.4 million, and FFO was $1.89 per diluted share, above its guidance of $1.80 to $1.82. It signed about 1.2 million square feet of leases, including about 206,000 square feet with a technology company at 500 North Capitol in Washington, DC. Total occupancy rose 100 basis points to 89.4%. BXP raised its 2026 FFO guidance to $7.06 to $7.08 per share. In the quarter, it sold Sumner Square and 1330 Connecticut Avenue in Washington, DC, for a total gross price of about $155.4 million. Oct 15, 2026: Press reports said that BXP closed the sale of a 10.6% equity interest in its 343 Madison Avenue development in New York to AVRS Partners. BXP confirmed the sale in its Q3 2026 report and keeps full control of development, leasing and management. The price was not disclosed, and press reports valued the project at about $2 billion. Oct 1, 2026: BXP repaid at par its $1.0 billion of 2.750% senior notes due October 1, 2026. Aug 31, 2026: BXP's operating partnership issued $700 million of 6.050% senior notes due 2036. It planned to use the money, with cash and its credit line, to repay $1.0 billion of 2.750% notes due October 1, 2026. Jul 28, 2026: BXP reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 3.1% to $895.7 million, and FFO was $1.78 per diluted share. It signed about 1.8 million square feet of leases, including about 322,000 square feet with Boston Dynamics and about 148,000 square feet at 343 Madison Avenue. Total occupancy rose 100 basis points to 88.4%. BXP raised the midpoint of its 2026 FFO guidance to $6.99 to $7.05 per share. Jul 28, 2026: BXP signed a $1.2 billion construction loan for 343 Madison Avenue in New York, with a four-year term and an initial rate of Term SOFR plus 2.50%. May 27, 2026: BXP agreed to sell Sumner Square in Washington, DC, for a gross price of $63 million, as part of its asset sales plan. It recorded a non-cash impairment of about $18 million in Q2 2026.
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