C changes
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- Price
- $121.97
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- 2027-01-14
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Citigroup
- Sector
- Banking
- About
- Citigroup is a global bank with five businesses: Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth and U.S. Consumer Cards. Services gives cash management, trade finance and securities services to multinational companies, banks and governments. Markets trades fixed income and equities for clients. Banking gives investment banking advice and loans to companies. Wealth serves Private Bank, Citigold and retail banking clients. U.S. Consumer Cards is one of the three largest card issuers in the United States. Citigroup is selling its Mexican consumer bank, Banamex, in stages, and it owned 51% of the voting stock of Banamex at September 30, 2026. Revenues were $23.8 billion in Q3 2026, and total assets were $2.94 trillion at September 30, 2026.
- Thesis
- The market doubts that Citigroup can earn returns above its cost of equity for many years. Return on tangible common equity (RoTCE) was 11.5% in Q3 2026, up from 8.0% a year earlier, and the bank targets only 10% to 11% for 2026. Citigroup still works under the 2020 consent orders with the Federal Reserve and the OCC, and it says that the remediation is a multiyear work that has not been linear. At its Investor Day on May 7, 2026, it set a RoTCE range of 11% to 13% for 2027 and 2028, and a path to 14% to 15% over the medium term. For the gap to close, three things must be true. RoTCE must reach the 11% to 13% range in 2027 while the bank invests about $5 billion more in its businesses. Expenses must fall as transformation costs and stranded costs end, so that the efficiency ratio moves toward 55% to 60%. Citigroup must keep its buybacks under the $30 billion program, with $23.0 billion left at September 30, 2026, while its CET1 ratio stays near the 12.6% target. The Q4 2026 report on January 14, 2027 gives the next test. Progress on the consent orders and the Banamex IPO are further tests with no fixed date. If returns move into the target range in 2027, the gap can close within one to two years. The main reason it may not close is a new regulatory problem or a weaker economy that raises card losses.
- Risks
- Citigroup still works under the 2020 consent orders with the Federal Reserve and the OCC on risk management, data and controls. In July 2024, the regulators added civil money penalties because remediation was too slow. More problems can bring penalties, limits on growth or higher capital requirements. Card losses can rise in a weaker economy. The U.S. Consumer Cards provision was $1.9 billion in Q3 2026, including a reserve build of $208 million. The CET1 ratio was 12.8% at September 30, 2026, only about 120 basis points above the requirement of 11.6%. A higher stress capital buffer or new capital rules can limit buybacks. The timing of the Banamex IPO depends on markets and regulatory approvals. Until Citigroup exits, results include Mexican consumer credit losses and costs. Markets and Banking revenues move with trading and deal activity, which can fall quickly.
- Balance sheet
- Citigroup funds itself mainly with deposits, which were $1.505 trillion at September 30, 2026, and total assets were $2.94 trillion. The standardized CET1 ratio was 12.8%, about 120 basis points above the requirement of 11.6%. The requirement includes a stress capital buffer of 3.6%, which stays in place through December 31, 2027, and a GSIB surcharge of 3.5%. The supplementary leverage ratio was 5.0%. Book value per share was $115.61 and tangible book value per share was $101.59. The total allowance for credit losses was $22.4 billion. In the first nine months of 2026, Citigroup bought back $13.3 billion of its common shares, and $23.0 billion of the $30 billion program was left at September 30, 2026. It pays a quarterly dividend of $0.67 per share. For a bank, net debt is not a useful measure, so this profile does not show debt figures. As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Jan 14, 2027: Q4 2026 results: returns and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2026 RoTCE above the 10% to 11% target and a 2027 outlook in the 11% to 13% range pass; lower returns or higher expenses fail. Jun 2027 (estimate): 2027 stress test and new stress capital buffer. Pending. Watch: A stress capital buffer at or below 3.6% from January 1, 2028 passes; a higher buffer that limits buybacks fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-13: Citigroup reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $5.2 billion and EPS was $2.85, up from $1.86 a year earlier, when a goodwill impairment related to Banamex lowered results. Revenues grew 8% to $23.8 billion, and Services revenues grew 15%. RoTCE was 11.5%, and the CET1 ratio was 12.8%. Citigroup returned $4.1 billion to shareholders and said that it expects to exceed its 2026 return target. 2026-07-14: Citigroup reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $5.8 billion on revenues of $24.8 billion, and RoTCE was 13.0%. 2026-05-07: At its Investor Day, Citigroup set a RoTCE range of 11% to 13% for 2027 and 2028 and a path to 14% to 15% over the medium term. It expects an efficiency ratio of about 60% in 2026 and 55% to 60% in the near term. The board approved a multiyear share buyback program of $30 billion. 2026-02-18: Citigroup signed and closed the sale of AO Citibank, its remaining business in Russia, to Renaissance Capital. It had recorded a pre-tax loss of about $1.2 billion on the sale, mostly in Q4 2025, after its board approved the sale plan on December 29, 2025.