CCA changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- CA$51.74 → CA$52.59(+1.6%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 28, 2026 → Jan 28, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Cogeco Communications provides internet, video, wireline phone and wireless services to about 1.6 million residential and business customers in Canada and in thirteen U.S. states. In Canada it uses the Cogeco and oxio brands. In the United States it uses the Breezeline brand and welo, a digital brand that now covers its Ohio footprint. It has two segments, Canadian telecommunications and American telecommunications. In removed: Q3 added: Q4 fiscal 2026, which ended on removed: May added: August 31, 2026, the Canadian segment had revenue of removed: $376.7 added: $375.0 million and the American segment had revenue of removed: $320.0 added: $320.4 million. Its fiscal year ends on August 31, and Cogeco Inc. is its parent company. All amounts are in Canadian dollars.
- Thesis
- The market prices Cogeco Communications for falling revenue in its U.S. business. In removed: Q3 added: Q4 fiscal 2026, revenue of the American segment fell removed: 10.1% added: 4.6% and its adjusted EBITDA fell removed: 10.0%. The added: 7.7%, after declines of 10.1% and 10.0% in Q3. In fiscal 2026, the company recorded non-cash impairment charges of $2.2 billion on the American segment because competition in the U.S. increased. removed: In April 2026, it lowered its added: For fiscal removed: 2026 guidance added: 2027, it expects revenue to added: fall by a removed: revenue decrease of 2% added: low to removed: 4% added: mid single-digit percentage and removed: an adjusted EBITDA removed: decrease of 1.5% to removed: 3.5% added: fall by a mid to high single-digit percentage at constant currency. The Canadian business is more stable, and its adjusted EBITDA rose removed: 3.9% added: 3.3% in removed: Q3. added: Q4. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The decline in U.S. revenue and adjusted EBITDA must removed: slow, as management expects for Q4 fiscal 2026. added: slow further. Wireless sales must keep growing in both countries and lower internet churn. Free cash flow must removed: grow as added: reach the removed: company lowers added: fiscal 2027 guidance of $500 million to $550 million as capital spending removed: in fiscal 2027, added: falls, so that net indebtedness of removed: $4.44 added: $4.30 billion removed: falls. added: keeps falling. The removed: Q4 added: Q1 fiscal removed: 2026 report and the fiscal 2027 removed: guidance on October 28, 2026 give added: report, expected in January 2027, gives the removed: first added: next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is more competition in the U.S., which can keep the American segment shrinking.
- Risks
- Revenue of the American segment fell removed: 10.1% added: 4.6% in removed: Q3 added: Q4 fiscal 2026 added: and 10.1% in Q3 because competition increased. added: U.S. customer losses stayed high in Q4. The company recorded $2.2 billion of impairment charges on this removed: segment. added: segment in fiscal 2026. If U.S. losses do not slow, earnings and cash flow keep falling. Net indebtedness was removed: $4.44 added: $4.30 billion at removed: May added: August 31, 2026. added: The company expects adjusted EBITDA to fall again in fiscal 2027. Lower adjusted EBITDA makes this debt larger compared with earnings and can limit dividends or investment. Cogeco is a new and small wireless provider in both countries. Larger carriers sell internet and wireless together. If its wireless plans do not win enough customers, internet churn can rise. The American segment earns U.S. dollars, and the company reports in Canadian dollars. A weaker U.S. dollar lowers reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
- Balance sheet
- Cogeco Communications funds itself with senior secured notes and bank debt. Net indebtedness was removed: $4.44 added: $4.30 billion at removed: May added: August 31, 2026, down from removed: $4.55 added: $4.53 billion at removed: February 28, 2026, added: August 31, 2025, and cash was removed: $77.3 added: $89.3 million. added: Long-term debt was $4.36 billion, of which $65.8 million is due within one year. Adjusted EBITDA was removed: $1.04 added: $1.39 billion for removed: the nine months to May 31, added: fiscal 2026, removed: and free added: so net indebtedness was about 3.1 times adjusted EBITDA (a calculation from the release figures; the release does not give the ratio). Free cash flow was removed: $449.8 added: $554.1 million for removed: the same period. added: fiscal 2026. In August 2026, the company sold an additional $200 million of 5.299% senior secured notes due 2033 to repay existing removed: debt. Management plans to lower capital spending added: debt, and in fiscal removed: 2027 to support free cash flow. The fiscal 2026 removed: guidance added: it bought back debt for a gain of $7.2 million. For fiscal 2027, it expects added: net capital spending to fall to $425 million to $475 million from $561.3 million and free cash flow added: of $500 million to removed: grow 0% to 10% added: $550 million, while adjusted EBITDA falls. As of removed: May added: Aug 31, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q4 fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 guidance. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: A smaller decline in American revenue and adjusted EBITDA than in Q3 and fiscal 2027 guidance for higher free cash flow pass; a faster U.S. decline or a new impairment fail. added: Outcome: The American declines slowed to 4.6% for revenue and 7.7% for adjusted EBITDA, but the fiscal 2027 free cash flow guidance of $500 million to $550 million is not above the $554.1 million of fiscal 2026. Jan added: 28, 2027 (estimate): Q1 fiscal 2027 results: U.S. trend. Pending. Watch: Stable Canadian adjusted added: EBITDA, an American adjusted EBITDA added: decline smaller than the 7.7% of Q4 fiscal 2026 and a removed: further slowdown in the U.S. decline added: confirmed fiscal 2027 guidance pass; a return to double-digit U.S. declines added: or lower guidance fail.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 28, 2026: Cogeco Communications reported Q4 fiscal 2026 results. Revenue fell 1.9% to $695.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA fell 3.8% to $344.8 million. Canadian adjusted EBITDA rose 3.3%. American revenue fell 4.6% and American adjusted EBITDA fell 7.7%, smaller declines than in Q3. Free cash flow fell 3.3% to $104.2 million in the quarter and rose 7.1% to $554.1 million for fiscal 2026. For fiscal 2027, the company expects revenue to fall by a low to mid single-digit percentage and adjusted EBITDA to fall by a mid to high single-digit percentage at constant currency. It expects net capital spending of $425 million to $475 million and free cash flow of $500 million to $550 million. It raised the quarterly dividend by 2.0% to $1.007 per share. Aug 6, 2026: Cogeco Communications agreed to sell an additional $200 million of its 5.299% senior secured notes due February 16, 2033, at 103.966% of face value, for a yield of 4.565%. It will use the money to repay existing debt and for general purposes. Jul 15, 2026: Cogeco Communications reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results. Revenue fell 4.7% to $696.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA fell 3.0% to $351.5 million. Canadian adjusted EBITDA rose 3.9%, while American adjusted EBITDA fell 10.0%. Non-cash impairment charges of $2.2 billion on the American segment caused a net loss of $1.74 billion. Free cash flow rose 17.6% to $169.2 million, and the company kept its fiscal 2026 guidance. Jun 1, 2026: Cogeco Communications said that it expects to record a non-cash impairment charge in its American telecommunications segment in Q3 fiscal 2026. Apr 9, 2026: Cogeco Communications reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results and lowered its fiscal 2026 guidance. It now expects revenue to fall 2% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA to fall 1.5% to 3.5% at constant currency. It kept its guidance for free cash flow growth of 0% to 10%.