CMG changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $30.79 → $36.64(+19.0%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 28, 2026 → Jan 28, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Chipotle Mexican Grill runs fast-casual restaurants that sell burritos, bowls, quesadillas, tacos and salads. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, it owned removed: 4,186 added: 4,267 restaurants, removed: of which 4,074 were in the United States and removed: 112 in other countries, and partners ran removed: 15 added: 20 more restaurants abroad. Chipotle owns and runs almost all of its restaurants, so it earns money from food sales and keeps the restaurant profit, unlike franchise companies. Digital orders gave removed: 38.3% added: 38.8% of food and beverage revenue in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. Most new restaurants have a Chipotlane, a drive-through lane for digital orders. It plans 350 to 370 new restaurants in removed: 2026, added: 2026 and removed: it added: 340 to 360 new company-owned restaurants in the United States and Canada in 2027. It has no debt. Scott Boatwright is the CEO.
- Thesis
- The market prices Chipotle with a discount because fewer customers visited its restaurants in removed: 2025 and added: 2025, growth stays slow in removed: 2026, while added: 2026 and costs rise. Comparable restaurant sales grew removed: only 0.5% in Q1 removed: 2026 and added: 2026, 2.2% in Q2 removed: 2026. The added: and 2.1% in Q3, and transactions grew in each of these quarters. But the restaurant-level margin fell to removed: 25.2% added: 23.3% in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026 from removed: 27.4% added: 24.5% a year earlier, because of beef and freight removed: inflation and added: inflation, more labor in the removed: restaurants. added: restaurants and higher insurance costs. Adjusted EPS fell 6.9% to $0.27 in Q3 2026. Food safety adds a second fear. Chipotle removed: guided added: expected a cyclospora outbreak to cut Q3 2026 comparable sales removed: growth of added: by about removed: 1%, with a cut of about 2 removed: points from a cyclospora outbreak, added: points, and on August 4, 2026 it removed jalapeños linked to a salmonella removed: outbreak, which its guidance did not include. added: outbreak. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Transactions must keep removed: growing, as they did in Q1 and Q2 2026. added: growing. The restaurant-level margin must stop falling as menu prices removed: and lower avocado costs offset beef added: and labor inflation. No new food-safety event must hurt traffic. The removed: first added: next test is the removed: Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026, with an update on Q4 removed: trends, and the 2027 outlook is added: 2026 report, expected in added: late January or early February removed: 2027. added: 2027, with the first 2027 outlook for comparable sales. If traffic grows removed: again, added: and the added: margin holds, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main risk is a weak consumer that keeps comparable sales near zero.
- Risks
- Food-safety events cut traffic. Chipotle expected a cut of about 2 points to Q3 2026 comparable sales from a cyclospora outbreak, and it removed jalapeños after a salmonella outbreak in August 2026. Customers spend less. Comparable sales grew only 0.5% in Q1 removed: 2026 and added: 2026, 2.2% in Q2 added: 2026 and 2.1% in Q3 2026. If the consumer stays weak, traffic can fall again, and Chipotle cannot raise prices much without losing more customers. Costs rise faster than prices. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, removed: food, beverage added: labor rose to 25.7% of revenue from 25.2%, because of wage inflation, bonuses, more restaurant labor and removed: packaging added: higher insurance costs. Other operating costs rose to removed: 29.7% added: 16.0% of revenue from removed: 28.9%, mostly from beef added: 15.0%. Food, beverage and removed: freight, and labor rose added: packaging costs fell to removed: 25.0% added: 29.5% from removed: 24.7%. added: 30.0% because of menu price increases and tariff relief, but beef and freight inflation continued. The operating margin fell to removed: 15.7% added: 13.7% from removed: 18.2%. added: 15.9%. Chipotle owns almost all of its restaurants, so it carries all of their costs. It also spends much of its cash on buybacks: removed: $1.33 added: $1.46 billion in the first removed: half added: nine months of removed: 2026, and its cash and investments fell added: 2026. Capital spending rose to removed: $775 added: $640.6 million removed: at June 30, 2026. added: in the same period from $468.9 million a year earlier.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $775M added: $1.0B Debt: $0.0M Net cash: removed: $775M added: $1.0B Undrawn credit line: $500M Chipotle has no debt. Cash includes removed: $228.2 added: $634.2 million of cash and cash equivalents, removed: $449.7 added: $268.4 million of short-term investments and removed: $97.1 added: $100.4 million of long-term investments at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. Cash and investments removed: fell from about $1.25 added: rose to $1.00 billion added: from $775 million at removed: December 31, 2025, mostly added: June 30, 2026, because Chipotle bought back removed: $1.33 billion added: only $110.0 million of stock in added: Q3 2026. In the first removed: half added: nine months of removed: 2026. Operating added: 2026, operating cash flow was removed: $1.33 added: $1.92 billion, buybacks were $1.46 billion removed: in the same period. added: and capital spending was $640.6 million. The figures exclude removed: $5.42 added: $5.60 billion of operating lease liabilities for its restaurants removed: ($317.0 added: ($321.6 million current and removed: $5.10 added: $5.28 billion removed: long-term). added: long-term) at September 30, 2026. At June 30, 2026, Chipotle had no borrowings under its $500 million revolving credit facility, and removed: $1.68 added: the Q3 balance sheet shows no debt. $1.6 billion of buyback authorization remained at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 results: comparable sales and Q4 trend. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: A pass is Q3 comparable sales at or above the guided 1% with positive transactions; a fail is negative transactions or a guidance cut because of the salmonella event. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Comparable sales grew 2.1% with transactions up 0.8%, and Chipotle kept its 2026 guidance, but the restaurant-level margin fell to 23.3% from 24.5%. Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): added: Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook: traffic and margin. Pending. Watch: A pass is 2027 guidance for positive comparable sales and a stable restaurant-level margin; a fail is guidance for flat sales or a lower margin.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 28, 2026: Chipotle reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $3.3 billion, up 9.6%. Comparable restaurant sales grew 2.1%, with transactions up 0.8%, above the guided growth of about 1%. The restaurant-level margin fell to 23.3% from 24.5%, and adjusted EPS fell 6.9% to $0.27. Chipotle kept its 2026 guidance for low single-digit comparable sales growth and 350 to 370 new restaurants. For 2027, it expects 340 to 360 new company-owned restaurants in the United States and Canada. It bought back $110.0 million of stock in the quarter. Oct 12, 2026: Starbucks said that it is "not buying Chipotle". On October 8, the Financial Times reported that Starbucks had worked with advisers on a possible proposal to buy Chipotle, and Chipotle shares rose 6.2% that day. Chipotle did not comment, and its shares fell about 3% after the denial. Sep 14, 2026: Chipotle elected Sabir Sami, the former CEO of KFC, to its board of directors, which grew to 11 members. Aug 4, 2026: Chipotle removed jalapeños from its restaurants after health authorities in Minnesota began to investigate a salmonella outbreak. Chipotle said that the Minnesota Department of Health had no ongoing concerns with Chipotle, and that its 2026 guidance did not include a financial impact from the matter. The stock fell about 10% that day. Jul 29, 2026: Chipotle reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $3.3 billion, up 9.3%. Comparable restaurant sales grew 2.2%, with transactions up 1.0%. The restaurant-level margin fell to 25.2% from 27.4%, and adjusted EPS was flat at $0.33. Chipotle raised its full-year guidance to low single-digit comparable sales growth, bought back $630.7 million of stock in the quarter, and added $1.3 billion of buyback authorization. Jun 1, 2026: Fernando Machado, a former marketing chief of Restaurant Brands International, started as Chief Brand Officer. Chipotle announced him on April 27, 2026, together with Arlie Sisson as its first Chief Digital Officer. Apr 29, 2026: Chipotle reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $3.1 billion, up 7.4%. Comparable restaurant sales grew 0.5%, as transactions rose 0.6%. Adjusted EPS fell 17.2% to $0.24.