CNH changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $11.95 → $11.52(−3.6%)
- Discount
- 37% to 48% → 39% to 50%(+2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-03 → 2026-11-09
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices CNH at a discount because the farm machinery cycle is at a low point, and investors are not sure when it turns. Low crop prices and high costs squeeze farm incomes, so farmers delay new machines. In Q2 2026, North American industry sales of large tractors fell 17%, and South American combine sales fell 29%. CNH's Agriculture adjusted EBIT fell to $170 million from $263 million, because of lower volumes, tariffs and higher costs. Loans more than 30 days past due rose to 4.4% of receivables, mainly in Brazil. S&P cut CNH's rating to BBB in April 2026, and Fitch moved its outlook to negative in May 2026. In October 2026, two new pressures came: the FTC and the USDA opened an inquiry into dealer practices in farm equipment, and higher USDA crop forecasts sent corn and soybean prices lower. For the gap to close, the farm cycle must turn in 2027: dealer inventories must stay low, industry tractor and combine volumes must stop falling, and CNH must deliver its 2026 outlook of about 5.0% to 5.5% Agriculture margin and $200 million to $400 million of industrial free cash flow. Past-due loans in Brazil must also stop rising, and the FTC inquiry must not lead to rules that limit dealer contracts. The Q3 2026 report, expected in early on November 9, 2026, and the 2027 outlook in February 2027 are the first tests. If demand recovers in 2027, the gap can close slowly over 2027 and 2028. The main risk is a longer low point in farm incomes.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 39, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: Agriculture margin and past-due loans. Pending. Watch: An Agriculture margin in line with the 5.0% to 5.5% full-year outlook and past-due loans at or below 4.4% pass; a cut to the 2026 outlook or higher past-due loans fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with higher Agriculture sales and margin passes; a 2027 outlook with lower sales again fails. 2027 (estimate): FTC and USDA farm equipment inquiry. Pending. Watch: An inquiry that ends without new rules or legal action against CNH's dealer model passes; new limits on dealer contracts or parts and service fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-19: CNH said that it will report Q3 2026 results on November 9, 2026, with a webcast at 9:00 a.m. ET. 2026-10-09: CNH stock fell 5% after the USDA raised its corn and soybean production forecasts, which sent crop prices lower. Lower crop prices reduce farm incomes and demand for machines. 2026-10-07: The FTC and the USDA started a joint inquiry into business practices in the farm equipment market, such as restrictive dealer contracts, hidden financial penalties and barriers to repair. CNH stock fell 5.7% that day, Deere fell 5.0% and AGCO fell 5.9%. 2026-09-21: CNH Industrial Capital Canada priced Cdn$200 million of 4.00% notes due 2028 and Cdn$350 million of 4.40% notes due 2030. 2026-08-31: CNH and Bourgault Industries formed an alliance to sell co-branded Case IH and New Holland seeding equipment that Bourgault makes, through CNH dealers in North America, Australia and other markets. 2026-08-03: CNH reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $4.80 billion, up 2%. Adjusted net income fell to $161 million from $216 million, and diluted EPS was $0.11. Agriculture sales were flat at $3.3 billion, and Construction sales rose 12% to $866 million. CNH moved its 2026 outlook to the higher end of its ranges: Agriculture sales about flat, an Agriculture margin of 5.0% to 5.5%, adjusted EPS of $0.41 to $0.46 and industrial free cash flow of $200 million to $400 million. 2026-07-28: CNH said that Chief Technology Officer Jay Schroeder will retire on January 1, 2027, and Agriculture Chief Commercial Officer Stefano Pampalone will retire on September 1, 2026. Eric Shuman will become Chief Technology Officer. 2026-06-02: The US government lowered tariffs on some farm and industrial equipment. Citi called the change a small positive for Deere, AGCO and CNH. 2026-04-30: CNH reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $3.83 billion, flat from a year earlier, and adjusted net income fell to $21 million from $132 million. Industrial free cash flow was negative $589 million. CNH kept its 2026 outlook.