CPAY changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $461.95
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Intrinsic value source
- AI estimate
- Next earnings
- Feb 3, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- added: Corpay
- Sector
- added: Corporate payments and spend management
- About
- added: Corpay, Inc. (Corpay) is a business payments company based in Atlanta, Georgia. It describes itself as the Global Spend Management Company. It has four reporting lines. Corporate Payments (corporate and virtual cards, accounts payable automation, and cross-border payments) earned $571.3 million of the $1,381.9 million of revenue in Q3 2026. Vehicle Payments (fuel cards, tolls and parking) earned $579.8 million. Lodging Payments earned $131.1 million, and Other earned $99.7 million. Ron Clarke is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Peter Walker is Chief Financial Officer. The shares trade on NYSE in US dollars. Corpay files 10-K and 10-Q reports. It had 63,971,827 shares outstanding at October 30, 2026.
- Thesis
- added: The price of Corpay depends on whether double-digit organic growth continues while debt and costs stay in check. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 18% to $1,381.9 million, organic revenue rose 11%, and adjusted net income per diluted share rose 32% to $7.54. Net income per diluted share under US GAAP was $5.66. The guidance for adjusted earnings per share of $27.90 to $28.10 in 2026 leaves out stock-based compensation of $134 million and amortization of $340 million before tax. Corpay has bought 5.25 million shares for $1.85 billion in 2026, and diluted shares fell to 66.4 million in Q3. Debt was $11,233 million at September 30, 2026, after the purchase of Alpha in October 2025. In November 2026, Corpay sold its Maintenance business for about $800 million, and plans to use the proceeds to repay debt. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Organic growth must stay near 11%. Fuel prices and spreads must not fall. Debt must fall after the sale. The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 is the next test. If these hold, the gap can close over the next two years. If cross-border or fuel profits fall, or if rates rise, the gap can last longer.
- Valuation
- added: The intrinsic value for Corpay is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Corpay with the SEC. The method is a multiple of adjusted net income per diluted share for 2027, less share-based compensation. The Q3 2026 release (8-K, November 4, 2026) gives guidance for 2026 of adjusted net income per diluted share of $27.90 to $28.10, which is $28.00 at the midpoint, with about 66 million diluted shares, interest expense of $435 million to $455 million and an adjusted tax rate of 24% to 26%. The reconciliation of the guidance shows stock-based compensation of $134 million and amortization of $340 million, both before tax, and adjusted earnings leave out both. Adjusted earnings are after interest, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. The estimate deducts stock-based compensation as a cost, which is about $1.50 per share after tax at an assumed rate of 25%. It does not deduct amortization of acquired intangible assets, and the multiples allow for this as an assumption. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives 63,971,827 shares outstanding at October 30, 2026 and total debt of $11,233.1 million. The 2027 adjusted earnings per share and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes $29.50 before the deduction, up about 5% from the 2026 midpoint, which is $28.00 after it, at 13 times. It gives $364.00 per share. The base case assumes $32.00 before the deduction, up about 14%, which is $30.50 after it, at 15 times. It gives $457.50 per share. The high case assumes $34.00 before the deduction, up about 21%, which is $32.50 after it, at 17 times. It gives $552.50 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $457.88 per share. As of Nov 12, 2026.
- Risks
- added: Debt is large. Total debt was $11,233 million at September 30, 2026, of which $5,161 million is current. This includes a securitization facility of $2,300 million. A rise in rates raises interest cost. Corpay expects interest expense of $435 million to $455 million in 2026. Fuel prices and spreads drive Vehicle Payments. The guidance assumes a fuel price of $4.90 per gallon and flat spreads for the rest of 2026. Adjusted earnings leave out costs. The 2026 guidance adds back stock-based compensation of $134 million and amortization of $340 million, and the GAAP earnings per share guidance is $20.03 to $20.23. Cross-border payments and foreign exchange can change results. Brazil earned 16% and the United Kingdom earned 15% of revenue in Q3 2026. Corpay holds about 35% of the equity of the AvidXchange partnership with TPG, for which it paid about $578 million. The agreement gives Corpay a right to buy the rest after 33 months.
- Balance sheet
- added: Cash: $3.1B Debt: $11.2B Net debt: $8.2B Debt due within 12 months: $5.2B At September 30, 2026, Corpay had cash of $3,073 million and total debt of $11,233 million, of which $5,161 million is current. Term Loan A was $3,271 million, Term Loan B was $2,906 million, revolving credit was $2,755 million and the securitization facility was $2,300 million. Restricted cash of $6,340 million is held for customers and does not belong to Corpay. Corpay repaid Term Loan B-5 in May 2026. It plans to use the proceeds of the Maintenance sale and free cash flow to repay debt. It was in compliance with all covenants. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- added: Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Organic growth stays near 11% and 2027 guidance for adjusted earnings per share is above the 2026 guidance, and this passes; slower growth or a lower guide fails. May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: debt after the Maintenance sale. Pending. Watch: Total debt falls after the sale proceeds and free cash flow, and this passes; a flat debt level fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 4, 2026: Corpay reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 18% to $1,381.9 million, and net income was $378.4 million, or $5.66 per diluted share. Adjusted net income per diluted share was $7.54. Corporate Payments grew 18% on an organic basis. Nov 4, 2026: Corpay raised its 2026 guidance. It now expects revenue of $5.340 billion to $5.360 billion, and adjusted net income per diluted share of $27.90 to $28.10. For Q4 2026, it expects revenue of about $1.37 billion and adjusted net income per diluted share of about $7.65. Nov 2, 2026: Corpay completed the sale of its Maintenance business for about 600 million pounds, about $800 million. It expects a pre-tax gain of $460 million to $515 million. May 21, 2026: Corpay made the eighteenth amendment to its credit agreement. It repaid Term Loan B-5 with new Term Loan A, revolving credit and Term Loan B-6 funds. The revolver and Term Loan A are due May 21, 2031, and Term Loan B-6 is due November 5, 2032. Mar 31, 2026: Corpay completed the sale of PayByPhone, a mobile parking payments business. It received proceeds of about $424.7 million, net of cash disposed, and a pre-tax gain of $125.5 million.