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CPNG

Current
Price
$15.99
Discount category
Well below intrinsic value
Next earnings
Feb 3, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Coupang
Sector
E-commerce
About
Coupang is the largest online retailer in South Korea. It is a US company, based in Seattle, but almost all of its sales come from Korea. It reports two segments. Product Commerce sells goods online, mostly from its own inventory, and delivers them fast through its own network of fulfillment centers and drivers; it had 25.2 million active customers in Q3 2026. Developing Offerings includes Eats food delivery in Korea, Rocket Now delivery in Japan, Play streaming, fintech, retail in Taiwan and Farfetch, the luxury fashion platform. Coupang makes money mainly from the margin on goods it sells, from fees that third-party sellers pay, from advertising and from its paid WOW membership. It reports in US dollars, so a weaker Korean won lowers its reported revenue.
Thesis
The market prices Coupang at a discount because a data breach damaged its profits and its relations with the Korean government. In November 2025, Coupang found that a former employee had accessed customer accounts. It gave customers about $1.2 billion of purchase vouchers, which lowered revenue until mid-April 2026. In June 2026, Korea's data protection regulator announced fines of about $410 million. Coupang appeals them in court, and in October 2026 the regulator let it pay them in six installments over two years. Profit fell at the same time: Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $116 million, a 1.2% margin against 4.5% a year earlier, and the July 2026 warehouse fire added $248 million of losses. Sales recover faster than profit: constant-currency revenue grew 11% in Q3 2026, and Coupang guides 13% to 14% for Q4 2026. It still expects Product Commerce margins near their level before the breach around mid-2027. Investors also fear more Korean regulation, and a weaker won lowers reported growth. For the gap to close, margins must recover toward the 5% adjusted EBITDA margin of 2025, constant-currency revenue growth must stay near 10% or more, active customers must keep growing, and no new large fine or rule must hit the business. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, must show the guided margin rise of 0.5 to 1.5 points from Q3. The Q2 2027 report shows whether the mid-2027 recovery is on track. If margins recover on time, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main risk is that the Korean government keeps acting against Coupang, which raises costs for years.
Risks
Korean regulation. After the November 2025 data breach, the data regulator announced about $410 million of fines in June 2026. Coupang appeals them and can pay them in six installments over two years. The Korea Fair Trade Commission has older cases against Coupang. In September 2026, the commission charged Coupang with obstruction after it refused an on-site inspection, and lawmakers criticized the company in October 2026. More fines, rules on delivery work or platform rules can raise costs. A US securities class action about the breach is also pending. Margins fell sharply. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 1.2% in Q3 2026, against 4.5% a year earlier. Management expects Product Commerce margins near their level before the breach only around mid-2027. Trailing 12-month free cash flow was minus $409 million at September 30, 2026, against $1,268 million a year earlier. Currency. Almost all sales are in Korean won, but Coupang reports in US dollars. In Q3 2026, revenue grew 11% at constant currency and only 7% in dollars. The Korea Fair Trade Commission is investigating whether bundling Eats benefits with the WOW membership breaks the law. If it does, Coupang can get a fine and may have to sell the Eats benefit separately, which can make the membership less attractive. Operations. The July 2026 fire at the Incheon fulfillment center caused $248 million of losses in Q3 2026. Coupang has not recorded insurance recoveries yet, and more costs can come. Coupang also keeps investing in loss-making units such as Taiwan, Coupang Eats and Farfetch, and in November 2026 it raised the top of its 2026 loss guide for these units.
Balance sheet
Cash: $5.4B Debt: $1.8B Net cash: $3.7B Debt due within 12 months: $1.1B Coupang has more cash than debt. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $5,444 million, and debt was $988 million of short-term borrowings, $119 million of current long-term debt and $654 million of long-term debt. Short-term borrowings fell from $1,985 million at June 30, 2026, because Coupang repaid the $750 million that it had borrowed on its revolving credit facility. Debt excludes $3,296 million of operating lease obligations for fulfillment centers and other sites. Accounts payable to suppliers were $7,532 million, so the business runs on supplier credit. Other current liabilities include the unpaid $410 million of Korean fines, which Coupang can pay in six installments over two years. Coupang had $2.2 billion available under its credit facilities at September 30, 2026. It had an operating loss in the first nine months of 2026, so interest cover does not apply. Coupang bought back $1,051 million of shares in the first nine months of 2026, while trailing 12-month free cash flow fell to minus $409 million. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Nov 3, 2026: Q3 2026 results: margin low point and fire costs. Passed. Watch: Constant-currency revenue growth of 8% or more and a margin decline within the guided 3 to 4 points pass; a larger margin decline or slower growth fails. Outcome: Constant-currency revenue grew 11%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin fell 3.3 points to 1.2%, inside the guided 3 to 4 points. Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: An adjusted EBITDA margin 0.5 to 1.5 points above the 1.2% of Q3 2026, constant-currency revenue growth of 13% or more and a plan that keeps the mid-2027 recovery pass; a margin at or below Q3 or a later recovery date fails. Aug 2027 (estimate): Q2 2027 results: full margin recovery. Pending. Watch: An adjusted EBITDA margin near the 5% of Q2 2025 passes; a margin still near 2% fails.
Recent events
Nov 3, 2026: Coupang reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $10.0 billion, up 7% and up 11% at constant currency, above its guide of 8% to 9%. Operating loss was $450 million, including $248 million of losses from the July 2026 fire. Adjusted EBITDA was $116 million, a 1.2% margin against 4.5% a year earlier. Product Commerce active customers grew 2% to 25.2 million. Trailing 12-month free cash flow was minus $409 million. Coupang bought back 12.7 million shares for $201 million. For Q4 2026, it guided constant-currency revenue growth of 13% to 14% and an adjusted EBITDA margin 0.5 to 1.5 points higher than in Q3. It raised the top of its 2026 loss guide for Developing Offerings by $50 million to $100 million, mainly for Taiwan. Its 10-Q says that on October 8, 2026, the data regulator let Coupang pay the fines in six installments over two years. Oct 12, 2026: At the parliamentary audit of the Korea Fair Trade Commission, lawmakers of both main parties criticized Coupang for refusing the commission's on-site inspection. Coupang said that it used its procedural rights. Oct 8, 2026: Coupang filed two lawsuits in the Seoul Administrative Court to cancel the data protection fines of 624.7 billion won, and it asked the court to suspend the fines while the cases run, Korean press reported. Sep 30, 2026: The Korea Fair Trade Commission sent Coupang a report that charges it with obstruction of an investigation, because Coupang refused an on-site inspection in August 2026. The maximum fine for a first offense is 100 million won, about $74,000, but the case adds to the conflict with the regulator. Sep 23, 2026: A Korean court rejected Coupang's request to stop the Korea Fair Trade Commission's on-site inspection of its dealings with suppliers. A court had suspended the inspection for a short time in August. Coupang appealed, and the commission's chair said that the inspection will continue. Aug 4, 2026: Coupang reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $8.9 billion, up 4% and up 10% at constant currency. Operating loss was $556 million, including about $410 million of Korean fines. Adjusted EBITDA was $163 million, a 1.8% margin. Coupang bought back 23.2 million shares for $459 million. It guided Q3 constant-currency revenue growth of 8% to 9% and an adjusted EBITDA margin 3 to 4 points lower than a year earlier, and said that it expects full margin recovery around mid-2027. The stock fell after the report. Jul 20, 2026: A fire in July 2026 damaged a leased Coupang fulfillment center in Incheon, Korea. Coupang said that the inventory and fixed assets at the site, with its obligation to sellers for their goods there, were worth about $246 million. It will claim insurance and record losses from Q3 2026, and it said that the fire did not materially affect Q3 revenue. Jul 14, 2026: Reuters reported that a South Korean court suspended the Korea Fair Trade Commission's designation of founder Bom Kim as the controlling person of Coupang. Jul 2, 2026: A US House report accused South Korea of targeting Coupang after the data breach. South Korea disputed the report. Jun 10, 2026: Korea's Personal Information Protection Commission announced a fine of about $278 million on Coupang Corp. for the data breach, and a separate fine of about $132 million over data from a third-party advertising program. Coupang said that it will appeal in the Seoul Administrative Court. The stock had its best day since late 2022, because the fine was smaller than investors feared. May 5, 2026: Coupang reported Q1 2026 results with a net loss of about $242 million, and it warned of slower growth. The stock fell about 7% after the report.
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