CWK changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $11.30 → $13.78(+21.9%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 4, 2026 → Feb 4, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices Cushman & Wakefield for cyclical deal revenue, high debt and losses in its Greystone joint venture. Capital markets revenue in the Americas fell 6% in Q2 2026, mainly because of fewer mid-sized deals in multifamily removed: property. added: property, before it rose 24% in Q3 2026. Net debt was $2.1 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and free cash flow was removed: negative $210 added: $200 million removed: in added: for the removed: first half of added: 12 months to September 30, 2026. In Q4 2025, the company recorded a $177 million impairment of its Greystone investment, and the joint venture has loss-sharing and indemnity obligations to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on some loans. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Adjusted EPS must grow 18% to 23% in 2026, as the company removed: now expects. added: still expected on November 4, 2026, after growth of 28% in the first nine months. Leasing and Services must keep growing, so that adjusted EBITDA keeps rising and full-year free cash flow removed: turns added: stays positive. The company must keep reducing debt, as the upgrades from Moody's and S&P in September and October 2026 assume, and the Greystone losses must stop growing. removed: The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 gives added: In October 2026, the removed: next test. added: company repaid the last of its notes due 2028, so no debt is due before 2030. The full-year 2026 removed: report added: report, expected in February removed: 2027 added: 2027, is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a new slowdown in property sales and financing, which higher interest rates can cause.
- Risks
- Leasing and Capital markets revenue depend on property deals, which fall when interest rates rise or the economy slows. Capital markets revenue in the Americas fell 6% in Q2 removed: 2026. added: 2026 and then rose 24% in Q3 2026, so it can change quickly. The Greystone joint venture shares losses on some multifamily loans with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The company recorded a $177 million impairment of the investment in Q4 2025, and further loan loss provisions can reduce its earnings. Most of the debt is term loans with floating interest removed: rates. Higher added: rates, but the company said in October 2026 that swaps make about 80% of its debt fixed-rate. The swaps end over time, and higher interest rates added: then increase interest expense, which was removed: $108.7 added: $157.9 million net of interest income in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. Free cash flow is usually weak in the first half of the year. It was negative $210 million in the first half of added: 2026 and $200 million for the 12 months to September 30, 2026, so the full-year result depends on the removed: second half. added: fourth quarter.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $500M added: $489M Debt: $2.6B Net debt: $2.1B EBITDA, last 12 months: removed: $693M added: $717M Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 3.1× added: 2.9× (medium) Interest cover: removed: 1.8× added: 2.0× Undrawn credit line: $1.0B, to October 2030 added: Debt due within 12 months: $150M Last debt due: 2033 Ratings: Moody's Ba3 (stable outlook), S&P BB (stable outlook) Cushman & Wakefield funds its operations with secured term loans and secured notes. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, debt principal was removed: $2.64 added: $2.59 billion: removed: $838 added: $836 million of term loans due 2030, $1.2 billion of term loans due 2033, removed: $200 added: $150 million of 6.750% notes due 2028 and $400 million of 8.875% notes due 2031. added: Cash and cash equivalents were $489 million, and the company states net debt of $2.1 billion. On removed: August 4, added: October 21, 2026, the company redeemed removed: $50 added: the last $150 million removed: more of the 2028 removed: notes. The company states net added: notes, so no debt removed: of $2.1 billion. added: is due before 2030. EBITDA is adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months to added: September 30, 2026: $693 million for the 12 months to June 30, added: 2026, minus $159.6 million for Q3 2025, plus $183.7 million for Q3 2026. Interest cover is operating income added: of $322.7 million divided by interest expense net of interest income added: of $157.9 million for the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. The $1.0 billion revolving credit facility was undrawn and matures in October 2030. The credit agreement has a net leverage limit of 5.0 times, which applies only when the revolving facility is used above a threshold. The company also sells trade receivables under a securitization program, with removed: $431 added: $424 million outstanding at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and these are not in debt. Moody's rates the company Ba3 and S&P rates it BB, both with stable outlooks. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: leasing and capital markets. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Continued growth in Leasing and Services revenue, higher adjusted EBITDA and no new Greystone impairment pass; a fall in adjusted EBITDA or a new large Greystone loss fails. added: Outcome: Leasing revenue rose 15% and Services revenue rose 5%, adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to $183.7 million, and the Greystone joint venture added earnings with no new impairment. Feb added: 4, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results: EPS growth and cash flow. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EPS growth of 18% to 23% for 2026, positive full-year free cash flow and lower net debt pass; EPS growth below the guidance or higher net debt fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 4, 2026: Cushman & Wakefield reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 8% to $2.8 billion. Leasing revenue rose 15%, Capital markets revenue rose 18% and Services revenue rose 5%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to $183.7 million and adjusted EPS rose 28% to $0.37. The Greystone joint venture added earnings in the quarter, after a loss a year earlier. The company kept its 2026 adjusted EPS growth guidance of 18% to 23%. Oct added: 21, 2026: Cushman & Wakefield redeemed the remaining $150 million of its 6.750% notes due 2028. The company said that it has repaid more than $800 million of debt since 2024, that it has no debt due before 2030, and that swaps make about 80% of its debt fixed-rate. Oct 19, 2026: Cushman & Wakefield said it will release its Q3 2026 results at about 7:00 a.m. ET on November 4, 2026, and hold its call that morning. Oct 6, 2026: S&P Global Ratings upgraded the company's issuer credit rating to BB from BB- and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Sep 28, 2026: Moody's upgraded the company's corporate family rating to Ba3 from B1, with a stable outlook. The company said that this is the highest rating that Moody's has given it since its IPO in 2018. Sep 10, 2026: Laurida Sayed, the Chief Accounting Officer, resigned effective September 25, 2026, to take a new job. Neil Johnston, the Chief Financial Officer, also became the principal accounting officer. Aug 5, 2026: Cushman & Wakefield reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 11% to $2.8 billion. Leasing revenue rose 27% and Services revenue rose 8%, but Capital markets revenue fell 1%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $183.6 million and adjusted EPS rose 17% to $0.35. The company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS growth guidance to 18% to 23%. On August 4, 2026, it redeemed a further $50 million of its notes due 2028. Jun 15, 2026: The company amended its credit agreement. It cut the interest rate on a term loan by 0.50 percentage points, extended its maturity to 2033 and increased it by $352.5 million. It used the money to redeem $350 million of its 6.750% notes due 2028, after a $100 million redemption in May 2026.