DE changes
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- Price
- $691.28
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-25
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Deere & Company
- Sector
- Farm & construction machinery
- About
- Deere & Company makes John Deere machines for farms, lawns, building sites and forests. It reports three equipment segments: Production & Precision Agriculture, which sells large tractors, combines and sprayers; Small Agriculture & Turf; and Construction & Forestry. Its machines use precision technology, such as GPS guidance and automation, that customers can buy as upgrades and subscriptions. Its Financial Services segment, mainly John Deere Capital Corporation, lends to customers and dealers. Deere sells through independent dealers around the world. Net sales and revenues were $45.7 billion in fiscal 2025 and $35.6 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. Its fiscal year ends near October 31, and it is based in Moline, Illinois.
- Thesis
- Deere trades at a premium because investors pay for a recovery from what management calls the bottom of the farm equipment cycle and for its lead in precision technology. Fiscal 2026 is a weak year for large farm machines. Deere expects Production & Precision Agriculture sales to fall about 10%, and industry sales of large farm machines in the U.S. and Canada to fall 15% to 20%. Even so, it raised its fiscal 2026 net income guidance to $4.75 billion to $5.00 billion in August 2026, because Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry grew. Investors pay for higher earnings when large farm demand returns and for more income from technology on each machine. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Large farm machine sales must start to grow in fiscal 2027, as early order programs and lower used-machine inventories suggest. Margins must stay high when tariff costs and production costs rise. Customers must keep buying precision technology, so that earnings at the next peak exceed the diluted EPS of $34.63 in fiscal 2023. The fiscal 2026 report with the fiscal 2027 outlook, expected in late November 2026, is the next test. The premium can shrink if low crop prices and weak farm incomes delay the recovery into fiscal 2028.
- Risks
- Demand for large farm machines depends on crop prices and farm incomes. Deere expects industry sales of large farm machines in the U.S. and Canada and of tractors and combines in South America to fall 15% to 20% in fiscal 2026. If farm incomes stay weak, the recovery that the market expects can come later. Tariffs raise Deere's production costs. Deere recorded tariff recoveries of $382 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, but new or higher tariffs, or trade disputes that lower U.S. farm exports, can cut margins and demand. Financial Services had about $48.4 billion of borrowings at August 2, 2026 to fund loans and leases to customers and dealers. Higher credit losses in a farm downturn, or higher funding costs, lower its net income, which Deere expects to be about $870 million in fiscal 2026. Other machine makers and technology companies also sell precision technology for farms. If Deere's technology does not stay ahead, it can earn less from upgrades and subscriptions.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $10.3B Debt: $57.7B Net debt: $47.5B Undrawn credit line: $5.2B Debt due within 12 months: $17.1B Most of Deere's debt funds its Financial Services loans and leases, not its equipment business. At August 2, 2026, total borrowings were $57.7 billion: short-term borrowings of $17.1 billion, which include $9.7 billion of long-term debt due within one year, and long-term borrowings of $40.6 billion. Financial Services had $48.4 billion of these borrowings, and the equipment operations had $9.3 billion. Cash and cash equivalents were $8.9 billion and marketable securities $1.4 billion; the equipment operations held $6.6 billion of the cash. Unused credit lines were $5.2 billion. Equipment operations generated $4.0 billion of operating cash flow in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. Deere paid dividends of $1.62 per share each quarter and bought back $697 million of shares in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. In July 2026, a Canadian subsidiary sold $300 million of 4.850% notes due 2031. As of 2026-08-02.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 25, 2026 (estimate): Fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Fiscal 2026 net income within the guided $4.75 billion to $5.00 billion and a fiscal 2027 outlook for higher large farm machine sales and net income pass; an outlook for another year of lower large farm sales fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Q1 fiscal 2027 results: order books. Pending. Watch: Higher Production & Precision Agriculture sales and order books than a year earlier pass; lower sales or a cut in the fiscal 2027 outlook fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-11-02: Deere's board added an eleventh director and appointed Julie Boland to the board. 2026-08-20: Deere reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results. Net sales and revenues rose 5% to $12.6 billion, and net income rose 7% to $1.379 billion, or $5.10 per share. Production & Precision Agriculture sales fell 6%, but Small Agriculture & Turf sales rose 12% and Construction & Forestry sales rose 18%. Deere recorded $110 million of tariff recoveries in the quarter. It raised its fiscal 2026 net income guidance to $4.75 billion to $5.00 billion and said that 2026 is the bottom of the current farm equipment cycle. 2026-07-10: Deere Funding Canada Corporation, a Deere subsidiary, agreed to sell $300 million of 4.850% notes due July 15, 2031, guaranteed by Deere & Company. 2026-05-21: Deere reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results. Net sales and revenues rose 5% to $13.4 billion, and net income was $1.773 billion, or $6.55 per share, compared with $6.64 a year earlier. Deere kept its fiscal 2026 net income guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion. 2026-04-28: Deere named T. Brent Norwood as Chief Financial Officer from May 1, 2026. Ryan Campbell, who was acting CFO, stays President of Worldwide Construction & Forestry and Power Systems. 2026-02-19: Deere reported Q1 fiscal 2026 results. Net sales and revenues rose 13% to $9.6 billion, but net income fell to $656 million, or $2.42 per share, from $869 million. Deere raised its fiscal 2026 net income guidance to $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion. 2025-11-26: Deere reported fiscal 2025 results. Net sales and revenues fell 12% to $45.7 billion, and net income fell to $5.027 billion, or $18.50 per share, from $7.100 billion. Deere guided fiscal 2026 net income of $4.00 billion to $4.75 billion and said that 2026 would be the bottom of the large farm equipment cycle.