DECK changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $80.74
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- 2027-01-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Deckers Outdoor
- Sector
- Footwear & apparel
- About
- Deckers Brands designs and sells footwear, apparel and accessories. Its two main brands are HOKA, a running and performance shoe brand, and UGG, a lifestyle brand known for sheepskin boots. It also owns Teva. It sells to department stores, specialty stores and other retailers, and directly to consumers through its own stores and websites, in more than 50 countries. In fiscal 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026, net sales were $5.47 billion: UGG had $2.74 billion and HOKA had $2.59 billion. International net sales were $2.28 billion. The company is based in Goleta, California.
- Thesis
- The market prices Deckers for slower growth at both of its brands. HOKA grew 15.9% in fiscal 2026, but the company now expects only high single-digit growth in fiscal 2027. UGG now expects low single-digit growth. On October 22, 2026, Deckers lowered its fiscal 2027 net sales outlook to $5.700 billion to $5.725 billion, from $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion in May. U.S. net sales fell 0.4% in Q2 fiscal 2027, and comparable direct-to-consumer sales fell 6.4%. The EPS outlook rose only because of tariff refunds of about $0.52 per share. For the gap to close, three things must be true. HOKA must return to the low double-digit growth of the multi-year framework that runs to fiscal 2030. UGG must hold its full-price sales in the holiday quarter. The operating margin must stay in the low 20% range while the company buys back stock with its free cash flow. The Q3 fiscal 2027 report, expected in late January 2027, and the fiscal 2028 outlook, expected in May 2027, give the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is weaker U.S. demand and more competition in running shoes, which can keep HOKA growth low.
- Risks
- Growth at HOKA is slowing. The company cut its fiscal 2027 HOKA outlook to high single-digit growth from low double-digit growth. Running shoes are a competitive market, and slower HOKA growth lowers the value of the multi-year plan. UGG earns most of its sales in the holiday quarter and depends on cold weather and fashion. A warm winter or a change in fashion can lower full-price sales and margins. U.S. consumer demand is weak. U.S. net sales fell 0.4% in Q2 fiscal 2027, and comparable direct-to-consumer sales fell 6.4%. More discounts in the market can lower gross margin. Deckers makes most of its products in Asia. New U.S. tariffs can raise costs. The fiscal 2027 outlook does not assume more tariff refunds after the $87.9 million received through October 8, 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $1.2B Debt: $0.0M Net cash: $1.2B Undrawn credit line: $500M, to August 2031 Deckers has no debt. Cash and cash equivalents were $1.210 billion at September 30, 2026, down from $1.907 billion at March 31, 2026, because the company bought back $637.5 million of stock in the first half of fiscal 2027 and built inventory for the holiday season. Inventories were $860.8 million. The $500 million unsecured revolving credit facility was not drawn and runs to August 27, 2031. Free cash flow was $1,097.3 million in fiscal 2026: operating cash flow of $1,182.0 million less capital spending of $84.6 million. The fiscal 2027 EPS outlook assumes share repurchases of $1.0 billion, and about $4.4 billion of repurchase authorization remained at September 30, 2026. The company has operating lease liabilities of $539.5 million, which the figures leave out. As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2027 results: UGG holiday season. Pending. Watch: UGG growth at or above the low single-digit outlook, HOKA growth near high single digits and a kept fiscal 2027 outlook pass; another cut to the sales outlook or lower gross margin fail. May 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 outlook. Pending. Watch: A fiscal 2028 outlook with high single-digit sales growth and low double-digit HOKA growth, as in the multi-year framework, passes; an outlook below the framework fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-22: Deckers reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Net sales rose 3.5% to a record $1.481 billion. HOKA sales rose 6.8% to $677.2 million, and UGG sales rose 3.5% to $786.4 million. Diluted EPS was $2.31, including a benefit of $0.28 from tariff refunds. The company lowered its fiscal 2027 net sales outlook to $5.700 billion to $5.725 billion and raised its diluted EPS outlook to $7.80 to $7.95, including a benefit of about $0.52 from tariff refunds. It bought back $299.3 million of stock in the quarter. 2026-08-27: Deckers amended its credit agreement. The unsecured revolving credit facility increased to $500 million, and its maturity moved to August 27, 2031. 2026-07-23: Deckers reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Net sales rose 5.7% to $1.020 billion, the first Q1 above $1 billion. HOKA sales rose 7.7%, and UGG sales rose 4.9%. Diluted EPS was $0.94. The company kept its net sales outlook and raised its fiscal 2027 diluted EPS outlook to $7.35 to $7.50. 2026-05-21: Deckers reported fiscal 2026 results. Net sales rose 9.8% to a record $5.472 billion, and diluted EPS rose 11% to $7.02. For fiscal 2027, it expected net sales of $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion and diluted EPS of $7.30 to $7.45. It gave a framework for fiscal 2028 to 2030 with high single-digit annual sales growth and an operating margin in the low 20% range. The board added $3.5 billion to the share repurchase authorization. 2026-01-29: Deckers reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results. Net sales rose 7.1% to a record $1.958 billion, and diluted EPS rose 11% to $3.33. HOKA sales rose 18.5%, and UGG sales rose 4.9%. The company raised its fiscal 2026 EPS outlook to $6.80 to $6.85.