- Company name
- DHL Group
- Sector
- Logistics and express delivery
- About
- DHL Group is a global logistics company. Its listed parent, Deutsche Post AG, changed its name to DHL AG on September 1, 2026, and its German mail and parcel business became a separate subsidiary on the same day. The group has five divisions. Express delivers time-definite international documents and parcels by air and road. Global Forwarding moves freight by air, ocean and road. Supply Chain runs warehouses and contract logistics for customers. eCommerce delivers parcels in many countries outside Germany. Post & Parcel Germany delivers letters and parcels in Germany. In the first nine months of 2026, Express gave €3,037 million of the €5,052 million of group EBIT. The company reports in euros under IFRS, and its shares trade on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. DHLGY is an ADR in the United States, and one ADS represents one half of one share. Tobias Meyer is the chief executive officer.
- Thesis
- DHL trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its record profit in Express, where tight air freight capacity and higher weights raised earnings in 2026. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 12.6% to €22,658 million and group EBIT rose 16.2% to €1,716 million, and Express EBIT rose 50.0% to €1,038 million. DHL says that the tight capacity in the air freight market added about €100 million to Express earnings in the quarter. On October 16, 2026, it raised its 2026 outlook to group EBIT of more than €7.0 billion, against €6,103 million in 2025. But Post & Parcel Germany EBIT fell 29.8% in the quarter as letter volumes fell, and eCommerce EBIT fell. For the price to be earned, three things must be true. Express margins must stay near 15% when air freight capacity returns to normal. Global Forwarding and Supply Chain must keep their growth. Post & Parcel Germany must reach its EBIT outlook of more than €0.9 billion. The full-year 2026 results on March 5, 2027, with the new outlook, are the next test.
- Valuation
- The intrinsic value for DHL Group is an AI estimate from November 10, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from DHL Group's reports. The company reports in euros, and the estimate is in U.S. dollars per ADS. The method is a multiple of earnings per share for 2027. The Q3 2026 quarterly statement (November 5, 2026) gives basic EPS of €2.45 for the first nine months of 2026, against €2.14 a year earlier, group EBIT of €5,052 million for the nine months and net debt of €22,208 million at September 30, 2026, including leases. The annual report page for 2025 gives basic EPS of €3.09 for 2025. The outlook of October 16, 2026 expects group EBIT of more than €7.0 billion for 2026. The amendment to the deposit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as depositary (exhibit to Form F-6EF, March 10, 2026) states that each ADS represents one half of one share from March 30, 2026. The ADS price of $33.09 and the Frankfurt price of €58.64 on November 9, 2026 are close to this ratio. EPS already includes the interest on debt and leases, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. It uses an exchange rate of $1.1147 per euro, the market rate on November 9, 2026, as an assumption. The EPS and the multiples in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes that air freight capacity returns to normal and Express margins fall, with EPS of €3.10 for 2027, at 12 times. It gives €37.20 per share and $20.73 per ADS. The base case assumes EPS of €3.60, at 15 times. It gives €54.00 per share and $30.10 per ADS. The high case assumes that Express keeps its 2026 margins and the group grows, with EPS of €4.10, at 17 times. It gives €69.70 per share and $38.85 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is €53.73 per share and $29.95 per ADS. The value moves with the euro. Efficient scale and a global network are the main sources of the advantage. The global Express network of aircraft, hubs and customs teams is very costly to copy, and it carries a large share of time-definite international shipments. But forwarding and contract logistics have many competitors, prices follow freight markets, and letter volumes in Germany fall. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.
As of 2026-11-10.
- Risks
- Part of the 2026 profit growth comes from tight capacity in the air freight market. When capacity returns, prices and Express margins can fall.
Tariffs and trade rules change world trade volumes. The end of the EU de minimis rule on July 1, 2026 lowered parcel volumes in Germany, and the U.S. IEEPA tariffs caused cash outflows.
Letter volumes in Germany fall each year, and costs for labor and energy rise. Post & Parcel Germany EBIT fell 16.9% in the first nine months of 2026.
DHL reports in euros, and the ADS price moves with the euro against the U.S. dollar. One ADS is one half of one share.
Net debt, which includes lease liabilities, rose to €22,208 million at September 30, 2026, and the company keeps buying back shares.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: €5.2B
Debt: €28.1B
Net debt: €22.9B
Interest cover: 4.5×
Undrawn credit line: €4.0B
Debt due within 12 months: €4.5B
DHL funds itself with bonds, lease liabilities and cash flow. At September 30, 2026, financial liabilities were €28,057 million, including leases: €4,516 million current and €23,541 million non-current. Cash and cash equivalents were €4,361 million and current financial assets were €814 million. Net debt as the company states it was €22,208 million, against €21,516 million at the end of 2025. A €4 billion syndicated credit facility was not drawn. Interest cover is EBIT divided by finance costs for the first nine months of 2026 (€5,052 million against €1,114 million), and finance costs include lease interest. In the same period, operating cash flow was €7,308 million, free cash flow excluding acquisitions and divestitures was €2,677 million, dividends to shareholders were €2,117 million and share buybacks were €727 million. Equity attributable to shareholders was €23,313 million. Issued capital was 1,150 million shares, of which 41 million were treasury shares.
As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: Express margin. Passed. Watch: EBIT growth and an Express margin near 14% or more pass; a lower group outlook fails. Outcome: Group EBIT rose 16.2%, the Express margin was 14.8%, and DHL raised its 2026 EBIT outlook to more than €7.0 billion.
Mar 5, 2027: Full-year 2026 results and new outlook. Pending. Watch: Group EBIT of more than €7.0 billion and a 2027 outlook near that level pass; a much lower 2027 outlook fails.
Apr 29, 2027: Q1 2027 results: air freight. Pending. Watch: Express EBIT near the level of Q1 2026 or higher passes; a large fall as air freight capacity returns fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-11-05: DHL Group reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 12.6% to €22,658 million, EBIT rose 16.2% to €1,716 million and basic EPS rose to €0.82 from €0.75. Free cash flow excluding acquisitions and divestitures fell to €901 million from €1,234 million, partly because of payments of €256 million for U.S. IEEPA tariffs that it passes on to customers.
2026-10-16: DHL Group raised its 2026 outlook to group EBIT of more than €7.0 billion (from more than €6.5 billion) and free cash flow excluding acquisitions and divestitures of more than €3.2 billion (from about €3.0 billion). It raised its capital expenditure plan for 2026 to about €3.6 billion.
2026-09-01: Deutsche Post AG changed its name to DHL AG, and the German mail and parcel business moved to a separate company in the group.
2026-05-05: The Annual General Meeting approved a dividend of €1.90 per share for 2025, against €1.85 for 2024.
2026-03-30: The ADR program changed its ratio. Since March 30, 2026, one ADS represents one half of one share, against one share before.