DTE changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $137.53 → $139.69(+1.6%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 5, 2026 → Feb 5, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices DTE for a costly building plan that needs new shares and fair rate orders. added: In November 2026, DTE removed: plans added: raised its 2027 to removed: issue $500 million added: 2031 capital plan to removed: $600 million added: about $44 billion, to serve data centers and build new plants, and it now targets about $1 billion of new equity each year from removed: 2026 added: 2027 to removed: 2028, because it added about $3.5 billion of capital added: 2031. It also agreed to removed: serve data centers added: sell DTE Vantage, so its 2027 operating EPS baseline stays at $7.59 to $7.73, and removed: build new plants. added: it raised its operating EPS growth target to more than 9% a year through 2031, from 6% to 8%. In February 2026, the MPSC approved a $242 million annual increase for DTE Electric, well short of the $574 million that it asked for. DTE asked for a further $474 million in April 2026. Customer bills and affordability are political issues in Michigan. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The MPSC must give a fair order on the 2026 electric rate case, which DTE expects in February 2027. The MPSC approved the Google data center contracts on October 1, 2026, and DTE must now sign a further data center agreement by the end of 2026, as it removed: targets. added: targets, from the 2 gigawatts in advanced discussions. Operating EPS must reach the added: high end of the 2026 guidance of $7.59 to $7.73 and removed: keep growing 6% to 8% added: then grow more than 9% a removed: year. added: year from the $7.66 baseline. The removed: Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026 gives added: sale of DTE Vantage must close in the removed: next test. added: first half of 2027. The rate order in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weak rate order, which cuts the return on the large investment plan.
- Risks
- The MPSC sets DTE's rates and returns. In February 2026, it approved less than half of the electric increase that DTE asked for. Another weak order can reduce earnings growth. The growth plan needs removed: $500 million to $600 million added: about $1 billion of new equity each year from removed: 2026 added: 2027 to removed: 2028, added: 2031, plus more junior subordinated debt. A lower share price makes each issue more dilutive. Much of the extra growth depends on data centers. The MPSC approved the Google contracts in October 2026, but service starts only in December 2027. A delay of the first data center past 2027 can change DTE's plan to pause rate cases. DTE Vantage earnings depend on renewable natural gas tax credits and on the prices of environmental attributes. Changes in tax law or prices can lower these earnings until DTE completes the sale of DTE Vantage, which it expects in mid-2027.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $42M added: $33M Debt: removed: $27.6B added: $28.5B Net debt: removed: $27.5B added: $28.5B Undrawn credit line: $2.5B, to October 2030 Debt due within 12 months: removed: $1.7B added: $3.6B Ratings: S&P BBB, Moody's Baa2, Fitch BBB DTE funds its utility investments with mortgage bonds, senior notes, junior subordinated debentures and equity. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, debt was removed: $27.6 billion, which includes $1.69 added: about $28.5 billion: $2.85 billion added: of long-term debt due within one year, removed: $22.9 added: $21.94 billion of added: other mortgage bonds, notes and other debt, $2.46 billion of junior subordinated removed: debentures and $542 added: debentures, $525 million of securitization removed: bonds. There were no short-term borrowings, added: bonds and removed: cash added: $737 million of short-term borrowings. Cash was removed: $42 added: $33 million. added: The revolving credit facilities, which expire in October 2030, had $2.49 billion of net availability at September 30, 2026. DTE added: expects about $3 billion from the sale of DTE Vantage in the first half of 2027, and the proceeds let it delay to 2027 the equity that it sold under forward contracts in 2026. It targets added: about $1 billion of new equity each year from 2027 to 2031. DTE targets funds from operations of about 15% of debt, and the rating agencies count half of the junior subordinated debt as equity in that measure. DTE Energy's unsecured debt is rated BBB by S&P, Baa2 by Moody's and BBB by Fitch. DTE Electric's secured debt is rated A by S&P, Aa3 by Moody's and A+ by Fitch. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and data centers. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Operating EPS on track for the high end of the $7.59 to $7.73 guidance and progress on a new data center agreement pass; lower guidance or no progress on new data center agreements fails. added: Outcome: DTE said that it is positioned for the high end of its 2026 guidance, and it has 2 gigawatts of data center demand in advanced discussions. Dec 2026 (estimate): A further data center agreement. Pending. Watch: A signed agreement for a further data center by the end of 2026, as DTE targets, passes; no agreement by then fails. Feb added: 5, 2027 (estimate): added: Q4 2026 earnings: 2026 result and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 operating EPS at the high end of $7.59 to $7.73 and 2027 guidance in line with growth of more than 9% a year pass; a lower result or a weaker outlook fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): MPSC order on the 2026 electric rate case. Pending. Watch: An order that grants a large part of the $474 million request with a return on equity near 9.9% or higher passes; an order for much less, or a lower return on equity, fails.
- Recent events
- Nov 5, 2026: DTE added: reported Q3 2026 results. Operating earnings were $2.30 per share, against $2.25 a year earlier, and reported earnings were $2.25 per share. DTE confirmed its 2026 operating EPS guidance of $7.59 to $7.73 and said that added: it is positioned for the high end. It set a 2027 pro forma baseline of $7.59 to $7.73 after the DTE Vantage sale and raised its operating EPS growth target to more than 9% a year through 2031, from 6% to 8%. Its 2027 to 2031 capital plan is about $44 billion, nearly 30% more than the prior plan, and it targets about $1 billion of new equity each year. It has 2 gigawatts of data center demand in advanced discussions. Nov 5, 2026: DTE said that on November 1, 2026 it agreed to sell DTE Vantage, its renewable energy and custom energy solutions business, for about $2.97 billion, subject to adjustments. The buyer is owned by investors advised by J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Global Infrastructure group and has no financing condition. The sale needs regulatory approvals, including from FERC, and DTE expects it to close in mid-2027. If the buyer ends the deal in some cases, it pays DTE a fee of about $149 million. Oct 1, 2026: The MPSC approved, with conditions, DTE Electric's special contracts to serve Google's data center in Van Buren Township. The contracts run for 20 years, with minimum monthly billing of 80% of contract capacity and a termination payment of at least 15 years of minimum charges. Google pays for up to 1,600 megawatts of renewable energy and 480 megawatts of battery storage that DTE Electric develops. Service is expected to start in December 2027 and reach maximum load by December 2028. Sep 28, 2026: DTE gave investors a business update. It said that construction of the 1.4 gigawatt Oracle data center has started and that it submitted the 1 gigawatt Google data center contract to the MPSC. It targets one more data center agreement by the end of 2026 and plans equity issues of $500 million to $600 million each year from 2026 to 2028. Jul 28, 2026: DTE reported Q2 2026 results. Reported earnings were $1.35 per share and operating earnings were $1.32 per share, compared with $1.36 a year earlier. DTE confirmed its 2026 operating EPS guidance of $7.59 to $7.73. Jun 18, 2026: DTE sold $1.0 billion of 6.200% junior subordinated debentures due 2058. May 27, 2026: DTE agreed with LG Energy Solution Vertech to build battery storage systems in Michigan for eight projects, with 1.5 gigawatts of capacity and an investment of $1.6 billion. Apr 28, 2026: DTE Electric filed a rate case with the MPSC that asks for a $474 million increase in base rates and a return on equity of 10.25%. DTE expects a final order in February 2027. If the first data center comes online by the end of 2027, DTE plans not to file another electric rate case until at least 2028. Feb 19, 2026: The MPSC approved an annual revenue increase of $242 million for DTE Electric from March 5, 2026, with a return on equity of 9.9%. DTE had asked for $574 million.