ELV changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $414.41
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- 2027-01-27
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Elevance Health
- Sector
- Health insurance
- About
- Elevance Health is one of the largest health insurers in the United States, with about 44.9 million medical members at September 30, 2026. It is the Blue Cross licensee for California and the Blue Cross and Blue Shield licensee for 13 other states, where it mostly uses the Anthem brand. It sells health plans to employers and individuals, and it serves Medicare and Medicaid members. These plans are in its Health Benefits segment. Its Carelon segment sells pharmacy services through CarelonRx and healthcare services through Carelon Services. Operating revenue was $50.4 billion in Q3 2026.
- Thesis
- The market prices Elevance Health for high medical costs in its government plans and for regulatory risk. Medicaid cost trends stay high because members are sicker and use more care. Adjusted diluted EPS was $30.29 in 2025, and the company now says that its 2026 earnings baseline, without one-time items, is at least $26.75. In 2026, CMS threatened to stop new Medicare Advantage enrollment because of old risk adjustment data, and Elevance recorded $935 million for this matter before CMS closed it in July. Its 2027 Star Ratings put about 49% of its Medicare Advantage members in plans with 4 stars or more, down from about 55%, and this can lower bonus payments in 2028. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Adjusted diluted EPS must grow at least 12% in 2027 from the 2026 baseline, as management expects. The benefit expense ratio must keep improving, as it did in Q3 2026, when it fell 70 basis points to 90.6%. Carelon must keep growing its operating gain, which rose 17% in Q3 2026. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, give the next test. The final 2028 Medicare Advantage rates, expected in April 2027, give a second test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a medical cost trend that stays above the rate increases in Medicaid and Medicare Advantage.
- Risks
- Medicaid cost trends stay high because members are sicker and use more services. State rates can lag behind these costs. Medicaid membership also fell after eligibility redeterminations. Under the 2027 Star Ratings, about 49% of Elevance's Medicare Advantage members are in plans with 4 stars or more, down from about 55%. This can lower the bonus payments that Elevance receives in 2028. CMS audits of risk adjustment data can lead to repayments. In Q1 2026, Elevance recorded $935 million for its best estimate of the exposure on historical Medicare Advantage data. Changes to federal subsidies can also change the size and health of the Individual ACA market. Total debt was $30.76 billion at September 30, 2026, and the debt-to-capital ratio was 40.7%. A downgrade can raise the cost of new debt.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $10.3B Debt: $30.8B Net debt: $20.4B Interest cover: 6.6× Undrawn credit line: $5.0B, to September 2030 Debt due within 12 months: $375M Ratings: Moody's Baa2, S&P A-, Fitch BBB+ Elevance Health funds itself with senior unsecured notes. Total debt was $30.76 billion at September 30, 2026, of which $375 million is due within one year. It had no commercial paper or short-term borrowings at that date. On March 15, 2026, Elevance repaid $750 million of 1.500% notes at maturity. The debt-to-capital ratio was 40.7% at September 30, 2026, down from 42.1% at December 31, 2025. Cash is cash and cash equivalents of $10.35 billion at September 30, 2026. Elevance also held fixed maturity and equity securities of $27.50 billion, but most of these assets are in regulated insurance subsidiaries. Cash and investments at the parent company were about $2.4 billion. Interest cover is income before income tax plus interest expense, divided by interest expense, for the first nine months of 2026. The $5.0 billion revolving credit facility runs to September 2030 and had no borrowings. Elevance expects operating cash flow of at least $6.5 billion in 2026. In Q3 2026, it bought back 0.8 million shares for $330 million and paid dividends of $373 million, and $5.0 billion of buyback authorization was left. As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 21, 2026: Q3 2026 results: medical costs. Passed. Watch: A lower benefit expense ratio than a year earlier and kept or raised 2026 guidance pass; a higher ratio or lower guidance fail. Outcome: The benefit expense ratio improved 70 basis points to 90.6%, and Elevance raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $29.00. Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of at least 12% growth from the 2026 baseline of at least $26.75 passes; a lower growth target or a lower baseline fails. Apr 2027 (estimate): 2028 Medicare Advantage rate notice. Pending. Watch: Final CMS rates for 2028 that cover medical cost trend and offset the lower 2027 Star Ratings pass; a rate increase below cost trend fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-21: Elevance Health reported Q3 2026 results. Operating revenue rose 0.7% to $50.4 billion, GAAP diluted EPS was $6.27 and adjusted diluted EPS was $6.99. The benefit expense ratio improved 70 basis points to 90.6%, and Carelon operating gain rose 17%. Medical membership fell by 487,000 from a year earlier to about 44.9 million. Elevance raised its 2026 guidance to at least $29.00 of adjusted diluted EPS and at least $6.5 billion of operating cash flow. It expects at least 12% growth in adjusted diluted EPS in 2027 from a 2026 baseline of at least $26.75. 2026-10-21: In its Q3 2026 quarterly report, Elevance said that its 2027 Star Ratings, which CMS released in October 2026, put about 49% of its current Medicare Advantage members in plans with 4 stars or more. Its 2026 Star Ratings put about 55% of members in such plans. The 2027 Star Ratings set the Medicare Advantage bonus payments for 2028. 2026-07-15: Elevance Health reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted diluted EPS was $7.45, and the company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00. It said that it will speed up targeted investments in medical cost management, member experience, provider connectivity and Carelon. 2026-07-13: CMS told Elevance in a letter that the company had completed all required steps in the Medicare Advantage risk adjustment matter. CMS did not impose sanctions and closed the enforcement process. 2026-04-22: Elevance Health reported Q1 2026 results and raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $26.75. Adjusted diluted EPS was $12.58. The company recorded $935 million for its best estimate of the potential exposure on historical Medicare Advantage risk adjustment data linked to the CMS notice. 2026-03-02: Elevance said that CMS notified it on February 27, 2026 of a plan to suspend new enrollment into its Medicare Advantage prescription drug plans from March 31, 2026. CMS said that the matter concerns risk adjustment data for dates of service before April 3, 2023. The benefits of current members did not change. 2026-02-26: Elevance announced management changes. Chief Financial Officer Mark Kaye also took responsibility for Carelon, and Felicia Norwood took responsibility for all Health Benefits businesses. Carelon President Peter Haytaian left that role on May 4, 2026. 2026-01-28: Elevance Health reported 2025 results. Adjusted diluted EPS was $30.29 for 2025, and the company guided 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of at least $25.50.