ES changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $66.85 → $65.60(−1.9%)
- Discount
- 5% → 7%(+2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-30 → 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Eversource for difficult regulators and for the cost of a large building plan. In March 2026, FERC cut the base return on equity for New England transmission owners from 10.57% to 9.57% and ordered refunds. Eversource expects this to lower its 2026 earnings by about $70 million, and it cut its 2026 guidance to $4.57 to $4.72 per share from $4.80 to $4.95. In Connecticut, CL&P filed its first rate case since 2017 in July 2026, and it asks for a large rate increase while customers and state officials focus on high energy bills. Eversource also raised its offshore wind contingent liability in Q2 2026, and it expects to issue $0.8 billion to $1.1 billion of new shares from 2026 to 2030. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Connecticut regulators must give CL&P a fair rate decision, expected in mid-2027. Eversource must grow earnings per share at 5% to 7% a year from the $4.65 base of 2026, as it plans. It must keep its credit ratings stable while it uses the $1.7 billion from the Aquarion sale to cut debt. The Q3 2026 report on November 4, estimated for about October 30, 2026, gives the next test. The 2027 guidance in February 2027 and the CL&P decision in mid-2027 are the main tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is another unfavorable decision in Connecticut.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 30Nov 4, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: guidance and debt reduction. Pending. Watch: Eversource keeps its 2026 guidance of $4.57 to $4.72 per share and shows lower debt after the Aquarion sale passes; a lower guidance or a new large charge fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance and financing plan. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance within the 5% to 7% growth path from the $4.65 base and no increase in the planned new shares pass; lower growth or more new shares fail. Q2 2027 (estimate): CL&P rate case decision in Connecticut. Pending. Watch: A decision that gives CL&P a large part of the $451 million it asks for, with a return on equity near the national average, passes; a low return or large rejected costs fail.