FIS changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $36.13 → $36.42(+0.8%)
- Discount
- 48% to 57% → 47% to 57%(−1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04 → 2026-11-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- FIS trades at a discount because the market doubts that it can grow faster with a much larger debt load after the TSYS purchase. Debt rose to $21.2 billion at June 30, 2026, from about $13.1 billion at the end of 2025, and FIS stopped most share buybacks and small acquisitions until gross leverage falls to about 2.8 times. On August 4, 2026, FIS cut its 2026 pro forma revenue growth outlook to 4.5% to 5.0% from 5.1% to 5.7%, and its pro forma adjusted EBITDA growth outlook to 5.9% to 6.9% from 7.2% to 8.4%. The stock fell about 5% at the open that day and kept falling in September. For the gap to close, pro forma revenue must keep growing at about 5% or faster, TSYS must keep its higher margins, free cash flow must reach the $2.15 billion to $2.25 billion target for 2026, and debt must fall so that buybacks can start again. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected on about November 43, 2026, against the outlook of adjusted EPS of $1.58 to $1.62. The 2027 outlook in February 2027 will show whether growth holds after the first year with TSYS. If FIS meets these targets and reaches its leverage goal, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main risk is that banks delay technology spending or that TSYS loses large card clients.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 43, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: pro forma growth and cash flow. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EPS inside the $1.58 to $1.62 outlook, pro forma revenue growth near 5% and the free cash flow target kept pass; another cut to the growth outlook fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with organic revenue growth of 5% or more, lower debt and a date to restart buybacks passes; slower growth or leverage that does not fall fails.