FLUT changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $76.18 → $78.26(+2.7%)
- Discount
- 52% to 65% → 51% to 64%(−1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-05 → 2026-11-04
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- Flutter trades at a discount because its US profit fell sharply, regulators and new competitors keep raising costs, and the CEO changed. In Q2 2026, US revenue fell 6% and US adjusted EBITDA fell 70%, after FanDuel lost customers from Q4 2025 and spent on prediction markets and new states. Prediction markets offer sports contracts also in states without legal sports betting, and investors fear that they take business from sportsbooks. On August 5, 2026, Flutter cut its 2026 guidance by $395 million of revenue and $210 million of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoints, and it said that Peter Jackson will hand over to Dan Taylor as CEO on October 1, 2026. Taxes also rose, such as the UK gaming tax, and on September 25, 2026, Brazil banned online betting by a provisional order, so Flutter stopped its business there. Leverage rose to 4.3 times EBITDA at June 30, 2026, against a target of 2.0 to 2.5 times. For the gap to close, FanDuel must grow its customer base and sportsbook revenue again during the 2026 NFL season, the $500 million cost plan must protect margins, Brazil's Congress must reject or change the ban within 120 days, and leverage must fall toward the target. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected in early on November 4, 2026. The decision in Brazil is due by about late January 2027, and the 2027 guidance comes in early 2027. If the US business grows again, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main risk is that prediction markets take a large share of US sports betting.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 54, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: FanDuel customers and guidance. Pending. Watch: Growth in US sportsbook customers and handle, US iGaming growth and no further guidance cut beyond Brazil pass; another cut to US guidance fails. Jan 2027 (estimate): Brazil: Congress decision on the betting ban. Pending. Watch: Congress rejects or changes the provisional ban so that Flutter can reopen in Brazil passes; a permanent ban fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with growth in US adjusted EBITDA and a path to leverage of 2.0 to 2.5 times passes; lower US profit or higher leverage fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-20: Flutter started a restructuring plan for its UK and Ireland business to reduce the effect of the higher UK gaming taxes. The plan can remove up to 1,400 jobs, including UK and Ireland staff in Portugal and Romania. Flutter expects pre-tax charges of about $80 million to $90 million, mostly in Q4 2026, and it said that its 2026 guidance of August 2026 already includes these costs. 2026-10-01: Dan Taylor became Group CEO, and Peter Jackson stepped down after nearly nine years. The Chief Legal Officer, Don Liu, resigned effective September 30, 2026, and Edward Traynor became interim Chief Legal Officer. 2026-09-28: Flutter stopped sports betting and iGaming in Brazil after a provisional executive order of September 25, 2026, banned online betting there. The order needs approval of Congress within 120 days to stay in effect. If Brazil stays closed for the rest of 2026, Flutter expects about $70 million less revenue and about $20 million less adjusted EBITDA. The stock fell about 8% that day. 2026-08-05: Flutter reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 3% to $4.33 billion, but adjusted EBITDA fell 45% to $508 million, and the net loss was $296 million. US revenue fell 6%, and US adjusted EBITDA fell 70% to $119 million. Flutter cut its 2026 guidance to about $17.91 billion of revenue and $2.655 billion of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoints and started a plan for $500 million of gross cost savings by 2029. The stock fell about 11% that day. 2026-08-03: Flutter completed the cancellation of its secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange. Its shares now trade only on the New York Stock Exchange. 2026-05-11: Flutter completed a $250 million share buyback tranche for the first half of 2026, with 2.4 million shares bought. 2026-05-06: Flutter reported Q1 2026 results. Group revenue rose 17% with acquisitions, and US revenue rose 6% to $1.76 billion. Amy Howe left as CEO of FanDuel, and Christian Genetski, President of FanDuel, took over the business.