FRT changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $106.32 → $113.10(+6.4%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 30, 2026 → Jan 30, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices Federal Realty for the risk that weaker consumers and higher costs from tariffs push some retail tenants to close stores, and for higher interest costs. Federal Realty pays a large dividend, so higher interest rates make its shares less attractive and raise the cost of new debt. Total debt rose to removed: $4.77 added: $4.88 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026 from removed: $4.49 added: $4.72 billion a year removed: earlier, and in added: earlier. In August removed: 2026 added: 2026, it issued $460 million of exchangeable notes that can turn into removed: shares. added: shares, and in October 2026 it paid $508 million for The Summit in Birmingham, Alabama. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Federal Realty must reach its 2026 Core FFO guidance of removed: $7.48 added: $7.54 to removed: $7.56 added: $7.58 per removed: share. added: share, which it raised in October 2026. Its record leasing must turn into income as new tenants open, which lifts occupancy from 93.8% toward its leased rate of removed: 96.1%. added: 96.5%. Rent increases on new and renewed leases must stay near the removed: 15% added: 14% cash rate of removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. The removed: Q3 added: Q4 2026 report removed: on October 30, 2026 gives added: with the removed: next test. The 2027 removed: guidance added: guidance, expected in added: late January or February removed: 2027 added: 2027, shows whether FFO growth continues toward the targets it gave for 2028 at its Investor Day. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a wave of retail bankruptcies, which would cut occupancy and rent.
- Risks
- Retail tenants can close stores or file for bankruptcy if consumers spend less or tariffs raise their costs. Empty space lowers rent until new tenants open. Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt and can lower the value of its properties. About removed: 23% added: 16% of its debt had variable rates at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. Federal Realty spends a lot on redevelopment and new mixed-use projects. Projects that cost more or take longer than planned give lower returns. The exchangeable notes issued in August 2026 can lead to new shares if the share price rises far enough, although capped calls reduce this dilution.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $107M added: $110M Debt: removed: $4.8B added: $4.9B Net debt: removed: $4.7B added: $4.8B Undrawn credit line: removed: $1.1B, added: $1.4B, to April 2030 added: Debt due within 12 months: $884M Last debt due: 2046 Federal Realty funds itself mainly with unsecured senior removed: notes. added: notes and term loans. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total debt was removed: $4.77 added: $4.88 billion and net debt was removed: $4.66 added: $4.77 billion, with cash of removed: $107 added: $110 million. Senior notes and debentures were removed: $2.97 billion. added: $3.41 billion of principal, including the $460 million of 3.50% exchangeable notes due 2031 that it issued in August 2026. About removed: 77% added: 84% of debt had fixed rates, and the weighted average interest rate was removed: 4.22%. It had $286 million added: 4.20%. Nothing was drawn on its $1.4 billion revolving credit facility, which matures in April 2030 with options to April 2031. Total debt was 39% of total assets against a covenant limit of 60%, and income covered annual debt service removed: 3.9 added: 3.7 times. removed: After the quarter, in August added: Debt due within 12 months includes a $200 million mortgage on Bethesda Row due December 28, 2026, removed: it issued $460 added: which Federal Realty can extend by one year, and $475 million of removed: 3.500% exchangeable added: 3.25% notes due removed: 2031 and plans to use most of added: July 2027. After the removed: money to repay debt. added: quarter, on October 1, 2026, it paid $508 million for The Summit. Its last senior notes mature in 2046. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 results: occupancy and leasing. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Core FFO guidance kept at $7.48 to $7.56 per share or raised, with higher occupancy, passes; a cut in guidance or falling occupancy fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Federal Realty raised its Core FFO guidance to $7.54 to $7.58 per share, and occupancy stayed at 93.8% while the leased rate rose to 96.5%. Jan 30, 2027 (estimate): added: Q4 2026 results: 2027 removed: guidance: added: guidance and FFO growth. Pending. Watch: 2027 Core FFO guidance with growth of about 4% or more passes; flat or lower Core FFO guidance fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 30, 2026: Federal Realty reported Q3 2026 results. Core FFO rose 5.6% to $1.87 per share. It signed 117 comparable retail leases for 532,220 square feet with rent growth of 14% on a cash basis. Occupancy was 93.8%, flat from Q2 2026, and the leased rate rose to 96.5% from 96.1%. Comparable property operating income rose 2.5%. It bought back 869,748 shares for about $95 million through October 9, 2026. It raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $7.54 to $7.58 per share, from $7.48 to $7.56. Oct 1, 2026: Federal Realty bought The Summit, an open-air retail center of about 870,000 square feet in Birmingham, Alabama, for $508 million ($498 million net). The center has more than 110 tenants and was 92% occupied. Federal Realty paid with money from asset sales, free cash flow and its recent exchangeable notes. It said that the purchase adds to FFO at once. Aug 11, 2026: Federal Realty OP issued $460 million of 3.500% exchangeable senior notes due 2031. Holders can exchange them for cash and, above the principal, for cash or shares. Federal Realty bought capped calls to reduce dilution and plans to use the rest of the money to repay debt and for general purposes. Jul 31, 2026: Federal Realty reported Q2 2026 results. Core FFO rose 6.8% to $1.88 per share. It signed 124 leases for 819,273 square feet, an all-time record, with rent growth of 15% on a cash basis. Occupancy was 93.8% and the leased rate was 96.1%. It raised the quarterly dividend by 3% to $1.16 per share and raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $7.48 to $7.56 per share. May 21, 2026: At its Investor Day at Santana Row, Federal Realty updated its long-term growth strategy and gave a framework for FFO and AFFO per share growth targets through 2028. May 1, 2026: Federal Realty reported Q1 2026 results. Core FFO rose 10.6% to $1.88 per share, and comparable property operating income rose 4.7%. It bought Congressional North Shopping Center in Montgomery County, Maryland for $72.3 million in March 2026. Apr 14, 2026: Federal Realty replaced its $1.25 billion revolving credit facility with a $1.4 billion facility that matures on April 12, 2030, with two six-month extension options.