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View the full Nov 12, 2026 version

Price: $37.56
Discount category: Close to intrinsic value
Intrinsic value source: AI estimate
Next earnings: Feb 19, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: Yes
Company name: added: Gold Fields
Sector: added: Gold mining
About: added: Gold Fields Limited is a South African gold producer with eight mining operations in Australia, Ghana, South Africa, Chile and Peru: St Ives, Agnew, Granny Smith and Gruyere in Australia, Tarkwa in Ghana, South Deep in South Africa, Salares Norte in Chile and Cerro Corona in Peru. The Windfall project in Québec, Canada, is in development. Attributable gold-equivalent production was 1.267 million ounces (Moz) in the first half of 2026 and 605 thousand ounces (koz) in Q3 2026. Gold Fields expects the upper end of its 2026 guidance of 2.4 to 2.6 Moz. The average realised gold price was $4,678 per ounce in the first half of 2026. Mike Fraser is Chief Executive Officer. Gold Fields is a foreign private issuer: it files a Form 20-F each year and furnishes its results on Form 6-K. The pick is the American Depositary Share (ADS) on the NYSE (GFI), in US dollars. The 20-F for 2025 states that each ADS represents one ordinary share.
Thesis: added: The market prices Gold Fields close to the AI estimate, as a gold miner whose profit moves with the gold price and whose Ghana mine may lose its mining leases. Tarkwa produced 101koz in Q3 2026, and its five mining leases expire in April 2027. Gold Fields sent a commercial proposal to the Government of Ghana in July 2026. On November 5, 2026 it had no reply and no timeframe. Costs also rose: the all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was $1,965 per ounce in Q3 2026, against $1,557 a year earlier, because of royalties linked to the gold price, stronger currencies in the producer countries and higher input costs. In September 2026 Gold Fields also offered to buy Northern Star Resources. Northern Star's board declined to engage, and Gold Fields says that it will act only if a deal creates compelling value for its shareholders. For the price to stay close to the AI estimate, the Tarkwa leases must renew on terms that keep the mine profitable, costs must stay inside the 2026 guidance, and any deal must leave shareholder returns intact. The balance sheet is strong: net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 0.13 times at September 30, 2026, and the company has returned $1.11 billion under its additional shareholder returns programme. The next dated tests are the 2026 results and the Windfall investment decision, both expected by February 2027, and the Tarkwa lease expiry in April 2027. If the leases renew and costs hold, the price can stay close to the AI estimate. If Ghana refuses or changes the terms, the AI estimate would fall.
Valuation: added: The intrinsic value for Gold Fields is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Gold Fields' filings with the SEC. Gold Fields is a foreign private issuer. It files a Form 20-F each year and furnishes its results on Form 6-K. The pick is the American Depositary Share (ADS) on the NYSE. The 20-F for 2025 states that each ADS represents one ordinary share, so the value per ADS is the value per ordinary share, in US dollars. The method is a multiple of 2027 free cash flow, less net debt. The estimate takes attributable gold production times the gap between an assumed gold price and an assumed all-in cost (AIC) per ounce, and then takes off tax at an assumed rate. The AIC includes growth capital, so the cost of the Windfall build is inside it. The H1 2026 results (6-K, August 26, 2026) give 890,896,534 shares in issue, net of treasury shares, at June 30, 2026, an average realised gold price of $4,678 per ounce, income tax of $1,183.8 million on profit before tax of $3,104.7 million, which is a rate of 38%, and net debt of $437.4 million. The Q3 2026 operational update (6-K, November 5, 2026) gives 884,686,053 shares in issue at September 30, 2026, an average gold price of $4,278 per ounce in Q3, net debt of $981 million with leases, production guidance of 2.4 to 2.6 million ounces (Moz) for 2026, and AIC guidance of $2,075 to $2,300 per ounce. The estimate uses the share count and net debt of September 30 and makes no change for share buy-backs after that date. It leaves out the proposal for Northern Star Resources, which is not agreed. The 2027 figures, the tax rate of 38% and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes production of 2.3 Moz, for example if Tarkwa loses its leases, a gold price of $3,600 per ounce, AIC of $2,350 per ounce and a multiple of 9 times. The margin is $2,875 million, or $1,782.5 million after tax, which gives an enterprise value of $16,042.5 million. Equity is $15,061.5 million, or $17.02 per ADS. The base case assumes production of 2.5 Moz, a gold price of $4,300 per ounce, close to the Q3 average, AIC of $2,250 per ounce and a multiple of 11 times. The margin is $5,125 million, or $3,177.5 million after tax, which gives an enterprise value of $34,952.5 million. Equity is $33,971.5 million, or $38.40 per ADS. The high case assumes production of 2.6 Moz, a gold price of $4,900 per ounce, AIC of $2,150 per ounce and a multiple of 13 times. The margin is $7,150 million, or $4,433 million after tax, which gives an enterprise value of $57,629 million. Equity is $56,648 million, or $64.03 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $39.46 per ADS. As of Nov 12, 2026.
Risks: added: Tarkwa leases. The five mining leases of Tarkwa in Ghana expire in April 2027. Gold Fields has no reply to its July 2026 proposal and no timeframe. Gold Fields says that an adverse outcome would have a material and adverse effect on the company. Gold price. Revenue and profit move with the gold price. The average gold price was $4,278 per ounce in Q3 2026, against $4,505 in Q2 2026. A fall in the price cuts profit faster than costs can fall. Rising costs. AISC rose 26% from Q3 2025 to $1,965 per ounce in Q3 2026. Royalties that follow the gold price, stronger local currencies and input costs drive this. Gruyere and Tarkwa may still deliver below their 2026 guidance. Large deals. The offer for Northern Star would issue up to 447 million new shares and pay up to A$10.4 billion in cash. Windfall needs capital of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion, at the upper end of that range. A bad deal or a cost overrun would lower returns. Country risk. The mines are in Ghana, Chile, Peru, South Africa and Australia. Changes in taxes, royalties, permits or labor rules in any of these countries can cut profit. Currency of the dividend. Gold Fields declares dividends in South African cents, so the US dollar amount that ADS holders receive depends on the rand exchange rate.
Balance sheet: added: At September 30, 2026, Gold Fields had net debt of $981 million with lease liabilities, or $410 million without them, against $437 million at June 30, 2026. The interim dividend of $878 million and $215 million of share buy-backs in Q3 caused the rise. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 0.13 times. At June 30, 2026, cash was $2,197.1 million, borrowings were $2,174.7 million, lease liabilities were $459.8 million and total equity was $9,223.9 million. Gold Fields had 884,686,053 shares in issue at September 30, 2026. Capital spending guidance for 2026 is $1,600 million to $1,800 million, of which sustaining capital is $1,300 million to $1,400 million. All amounts are in US dollars. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: added: Feb 19, 2027 (estimate): 2026 results and Windfall decision. Pending. Watch: A published Windfall capital estimate and schedule with a decision to build passes; a delay or a higher capital estimate fails. Apr 2027 (estimate): Tarkwa mining leases expire. Pending. Watch: A renewal on terms that keep Tarkwa profitable passes; no renewal, or terms that end its profit, fails.
Recent events: added: Nov 5, 2026: Gold Fields gave its Q3 2026 operational update. Attributable production was 605koz, AISC was $1,965 per ounce and all-in cost (AIC) was $2,266 per ounce. Net debt was $981 million at September 30, 2026 ($410 million without leases), after an interim dividend of $878 million and $215 million of share buy-backs. The company expects the upper end of its 2.4 to 2.6 Moz production guidance. It also agreed with BHP to buy the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator in Western Australia, which it expects to complete in 2027. Nov 2, 2026: Gold Fields said that Québec issued the Certificate of Authorisation for the Windfall project on October 30, 2026. The certificate allows construction and full development. Windfall is expected to produce about 300,000 ounces of gold a year once it is at full rate. Gold Fields expects to publish the capital estimate, the construction schedule and the mineral reserves by February 2027, with its 2026 results. Sep 28, 2026: Gold Fields confirmed that on September 13, 2026 it sent Northern Star Resources a non-binding proposal to buy all its shares by a scheme of arrangement. The terms were 0.3125 Gold Fields shares and A$7.25 in cash for each Northern Star share. Northern Star's board answered on September 24, 2026 that it was not appropriate to engage in further talks at that time. Aug 25, 2026: Gold Fields reported results for the first half of 2026. Headline earnings were $1,855 million, adjusted free cash flow was $2,225 million, and sales volume was 1.269 Moz. The board declared an interim dividend of 1,625 South African cents per share and raised the additional shareholder returns programme to $1.25 billion.