GSK changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $49.34 → $50.02(+1.4%)
- Discount
- 6% to 22% → 5% to 21%(−1.0 pts)
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- GSK trades at a discount because the market doubts that its new medicines can replace the HIV sales it will lose when dolutegravir patents expire from 2028 to 2030. General Medicines sales also fall, by 9% in Q2 2026, and a late-stage failure in July 2026 added to the doubt: GSK stopped camlipixant for chronic cough and took a £1.3 billion impairment. US drug-price pressure is a second concern, although GSK's December 2025 agreement with the US government gives it relief from Section 232 tariffs through January 20, 2029. GSK now buys growth with debt, for example Nuvalent for about $10.6 billion in July 2026, and it plans more than 20 phase III trial starts in 2026. For the gap to close, GSK must win approvals and fast launches for its new medicines, keep its 2026 guidance of 7% to 9% core EPS growth, stay on track for its target of more than £40 billion of sales in 2031, and keep its operating margin stable through the dolutegravir patent expiry. The near-term tests are the FDA decision on bepirovirsen for chronic hepatitis B, expected by October 26, 2026, the Q3 2026 report, expected at the end of on October 28, 2026, and the FDA decision on neladalkib for lung cancer, with a target date of November 27, 2026. The gap can close only over several years, as new launches grow before and through 2028 to 2030. The main risk is that new medicines grow too slowly to replace HIV sales.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 26, 2026: FDA decision on bepirovirsen for chronic hepatitis B. Pending. Watch: US approval by October 26, 2026 passes; a rejection or a delay fails. Oct 28, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results and Nuvalent accounting. Pending. Watch: Core EPS growth in line with 7% to 9% for 2026 and growth in Specialty Medicines at a low double-digit rate pass; a guidance cut or a further pipeline impairment fails. Nov 27, 2026: FDA decision on neladalkib for ALK-positive lung cancer. Pending. Watch: Approval by the November 27, 2026 target date passes; a rejection or a delay fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with sales and core profit growth and a stable margin outlook through the dolutegravir patent expiry passes; lower guidance fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-19: The FDA gave accelerated approval to Jemperli (dostarlimab) for adults with stage II or III MSI-H/dMMR locally advanced rectal cancer. In the AZUR-1 trial, 68% of evaluable patients had a complete clinical response that lasted 12 months. The approval came about four months before the target date, with a national priority voucher. 2026-09-15: GSK agreed to buy a trispecific T cell-engager for multiple myeloma from Chimagen Biosciences. The programme should enter phase I trials in 2027. 2026-09-13: GSK's licensor Hansoh Pharma reported that Ris-Rez lowered the risk of death by 54% against topotecan in relapsed small cell lung cancer in a phase III trial in China. Median survival was 18.5 months against 10.3 months. 2026-08-24: Japan approved Hibsago (bepirovirsen) as the first functional cure for chronic hepatitis B. The FDA decision in the US is expected by October 26, 2026. 2026-07-28: GSK reported Q2 2026 results. Sales were £8.4 billion, up 5% at constant exchange rates, and core EPS grew 9%. Specialty Medicines grew 14%, Vaccines 8%, and General Medicines fell 9%. Total operating profit fell 75% because of a £1.3 billion impairment, mainly for camlipixant. GSK kept its 2026 guidance, started a three-year plan that targets £1.9 billion of annual savings by 2029 at a cost of £2.4 billion, and raised its plan to more than 20 phase III trial starts in 2026. 2026-07-17: GSK stopped development of camlipixant in refractory chronic cough. Only one of two phase III trials met its main goal, and only at the higher dose. 2026-07-15: GSK completed its purchase of Nuvalent for an equity value of about $10.6 billion (£8.0 billion), or about $9.4 billion net of cash acquired, funded mainly with debt. The deal adds two lung cancer medicines: zidesamtinib, which the FDA approved as Jideytro in July 2026, and neladalkib, under FDA review.