GWO changes
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- Price
- CA$94.42
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Feb 4, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- added: Great-West Lifeco
- Sector
- added: Retirement, wealth, group benefits and insurance
- About
- added: Great-West Lifeco (Great West) is a financial services holding company. It sells retirement plans, wealth management, group benefits, life and health insurance and reinsurance in the United States, Canada and Europe under the brands Empower, Canada Life and Irish Life. It reports five segments: United States, Canada, Europe, Capital and Risk Solutions, and Corporate. In Q3 2026, base earnings were C$510 million in the United States, C$347 million in Canada, C$273 million in Europe and C$309 million in Capital and Risk Solutions, and Corporate had a base loss of C$116 million. Retirement and Wealth give more than 50% of base earnings. Total client assets were C$3.9 trillion at September 30, 2026, and Great West has about 40 million customer relationships. Power Corporation of Canada controls the company. The common shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The head office is in Winnipeg. David Harney is President and Chief Executive Officer.
- Thesis
- added: Great West trades above its intrinsic value because investors pay for its record base return on equity, its growth in U.S. retirement and wealth through Empower, and its share buybacks. In Q3 2026, base EPS rose 11% to C$1.48, and base ROE was a record 19.4%. Empower had record pre-tax base operating margins of 35.6% in Retirement and 42.0% in Wealth. For the shares to earn this price, three things must be true. Base EPS must keep growing at 8% to 10% a year, the medium-term objective, after growth of 12% in 2025. Empower must keep its margins and grow its net flows, after net participant outflows in Retirement in Q3 2026. Insurance experience in Canada and credit losses must stay near expectations. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, is the next test. Lower markets, weaker insurance results or higher credit losses can make the premium hard to keep.
- Risks
- added: Fee income in Retirement and Wealth depends on the value of client assets. A fall in equity markets lowers fees and base earnings, mainly at Empower in the United States. Empower had net participant outflows in its Retirement business in Q3 2026. If plan participants keep moving money out, asset growth and fee income can slow. Great West holds large portfolios of bonds, mortgages and real estate. In Q3 2026, credit impacts were higher in the United States. A recession can raise credit losses. Insurance results depend on claims and actuarial assumptions. In Q3 2026, group benefits insurance experience in Canada was weaker, and base earnings in Canada fell 6%. Great West reports in Canadian dollars, but a large part of its earnings comes in U.S. dollars and euros. A stronger Canadian dollar lowers reported earnings.
- Balance sheet
- added: Great West funds itself mainly with shareholders' equity, insurance and investment contract liabilities, debentures and preferred shares. At September 30, 2026, debentures and other debt instruments were C$9,853 million, C$1,061 million more than at December 31, 2025. In Q3 2026, Great West issued EUR 500 million of 7-year bonds with a 3.625% coupon, and it plans to repay a EUR 500 million Eurobond in Q4 2026. Holding company cash was C$3.6 billion and the leverage ratio was 29%; after that repayment, they are C$2.8 billion and 27%. The LICAT ratio of The Canada Life Assurance Company, the Canadian capital test for life insurers, was 127%. Book value per share was C$30.07, 8% more than a year earlier. At October 30, 2026, there were 892.2 million common shares and 124.8 million first preferred shares. The quarterly dividend is C$0.67 per share. For an insurer, net debt is not a useful measure, so this profile does not show debt figures. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- added: Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 results: base EPS and base ROE. Passed. Watch: Base EPS growth of 8% or more and base ROE of 19% or more pass; lower base EPS fails. Outcome: Base EPS rose 11% to C$1.48, and base ROE was a record 19.4%. Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 dividend. Pending. Watch: Base EPS growth for 2026 of 10% or more and a higher dividend pass; lower base EPS in Q4 fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): Empower net flows and margins. Pending. Watch: Net inflows in Empower Retirement and Wealth with stable margins in the first half of 2027 pass; more net outflows fail.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 4, 2026: Great West reported Q3 2026 results. Base earnings rose 8% to C$1,323 million, and base EPS rose 11% to a record C$1.48. Net earnings were C$1,139 million, or C$1.27 per share. Base ROE was a record 19.4%, and the LICAT ratio was 127%. Great West bought back 3.7 million common shares for C$340 million and declared a quarterly dividend of C$0.67 per share. Sep 1, 2026: Empower completed the purchase of the retirement plan and benefits administration business of Milliman, Inc. It paid US$244 million in cash and gave a seller note of US$80 million, payable over five years. Empower expects integration costs of about US$50 million before tax over three years. Jul 28, 2026: Great West reported Q2 2026 results. Base EPS rose 15% to C$1.42, and net EPS rose 20% to C$1.16. Base ROE was 19.3%, and the company bought back C$336 million of common shares. May 6, 2026: Great West reported Q1 2026 results. Base earnings rose 20% to C$1,239 million, and base EPS rose 23% to C$1.37. Net earnings rose 39% to C$1,192 million. Base ROE was 19.1%, above the medium-term objective of 19% or more for the first time. Feb 11, 2026: Great West reported 2025 results. Base earnings rose 11% to a record C$4,649 million, or C$5.03 per share. Net earnings from continuing operations were about C$4.0 billion, or C$4.29 per share. It raised the quarterly dividend by 10% to C$0.67 per share and bought back C$1.6 billion of common shares in 2025.