HAYW changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $11.74 → $12.06(+2.7%)
- Discount
- 23% to 43% → 21% to 42%(−2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-29 → 2026-10-28
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market doubts that Hayward can keep growing while pool spending is weak. High interest rates and a cautious consumer slow new pool construction and large remodels, and in 2026 most of Hayward's sales growth came from higher prices that offset inflation and tariffs. Tariff costs also lowered gross margin by 50 basis points to 48.7% in Q2 2026, and sales in Europe and Rest of World fell 8% because of the conflicts in the Middle East. Investors fear that price increases can not continue, and that volume can fall if consumers cut back. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Hayward must meet its 2026 guidance of about 5% net sales growth and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.84 to $0.87. Volumes must stay stable or grow, which shows that the aftermarket base holds up when prices rise. Gross margin must stay near 49% or better while tariffs remain. Hayward has room to act, because net leverage fell to 1.5 times on June 27, 2026, and it bought back $58.0 million of shares in Q2 2026. The Q3 2026 report, expected at the end of on October 28, 2026, and the full-year report with the first 2027 guidance in about February 2027 give the evidence. If sales and margins hold, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. If the consumer weakens further, the gap can stay until pool construction recovers.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 2928, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: volume, price and margin. Pending. Watch: Net sales growth with stable volume, gross margin near 49% and the 2026 guidance kept pass; falling volume or a cut to the guidance fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.84 to $0.87 for 2026 and a 2027 outlook with sales and earnings growth pass; a 2027 outlook with lower sales fails. Jul 2027 (estimate): Q2 2027 results: the main pool season. Pending. Watch: Volume growth in North America in the main season passes; a second year of growth only from price, with lower volume, fails.