HAYW changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $11.83 → $16.77(+41.8%)
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 28, 2026 → Jan 28, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Hayward designs and makes equipment for swimming pools and outdoor living, such as pumps, filters, heaters, cleaners, lights, sanitizers and automation controls, and it also makes industrial flow control products. It estimates its share of the North American residential pool market at about 33%. About 85% of its North American residential pool sales go to the aftermarket, which repairs, replaces and upgrades equipment on existing pools, so most demand repeats each year. It sells mostly through pool equipment distributors, and it has an Early Buy program that gives customers longer payment terms before the season. Its SmartPad equipment connects pool products to an app. It reports two segments: North America, with removed: $277.7 added: $226.4 million of net sales in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, and Europe and Rest of World, with removed: $40.7 added: $33.8 million.
- Thesis
- The market doubts that Hayward can keep growing while pool spending is weak. High interest rates and a cautious consumer slow new pool construction and large remodels, and in 2026 most of Hayward's sales growth came from higher prices that offset inflation and tariffs. removed: Tariff costs also lowered added: In Q3 2026, gross margin removed: by 50 basis points to 48.7% in Q2 2026, added: was 47.9%, and removed: sales added: inflation was slightly larger than the price benefit in added: both segments. Sales in Europe and Rest of World fell removed: 8% added: 6% in Q3 2026 because of the conflicts in the Middle East. Investors fear that price increases can not continue, and that volume can fall if consumers cut back. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Hayward must meet its added: raised 2026 guidance of about 5% added: to 6% net sales growth and adjusted diluted EPS of removed: $0.84 added: $0.86 to removed: $0.87. added: $0.88. Volumes must stay stable or grow, which shows that the aftermarket base holds up when prices rise. added: Volume grew modestly in Q3 2026, and early buy orders for the 2027 season were ahead of the prior year in North America. Gross margin must stay near added: 48% to 49% removed: or better while tariffs remain. Hayward has room to act, because net leverage removed: fell to added: was 1.5 times on removed: June 27, added: September 26, 2026, and it bought back removed: $58.0 added: $115.3 million of shares in removed: Q2 added: the first nine months of 2026. The removed: Q3 2026 report on October 28, 2026, and the full-year report with the first 2027 guidance in removed: about February added: early 2027 added: and the 2027 pool season give the evidence. If sales and margins hold, the gap can close over the next three to removed: five added: four quarters. If the consumer weakens further, the gap can stay until pool construction recovers.
- Risks
- Demand depends on consumer spending on pools. High interest rates and a weak consumer slow new pool construction and large remodels. In 2026, most of Hayward's sales growth came from higher prices, and volume can fall if consumers cut back. Tariffs raise Hayward's costs. Gross margin fell 50 basis points to 48.7% in Q2 2026 because of tariffs and inflation. added: In Q3 2026, inflation was slightly larger than the price benefit, and gross margin fell slightly in both segments. After the US Supreme Court ruled against the IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, the US announced new tariffs under other laws, and Hayward may have to return part of any tariff refund to customers. Sales are seasonal and depend on the weather and on the stock that distributors buy. A cool or wet season, or distributors that cut inventory, can lower sales in a quarter. Sales in Europe and Rest of World fell 8% in Q2 2026 added: and 6% in Q3 2026 because of the conflicts in the Middle East. Shareholder derivative lawsuits about past disclosures are still open, and Hayward can not estimate their cost.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $483M added: $475M Debt: $965M Net debt: removed: $482M added: $490M EBITDA, last 12 months: removed: $311M added: $316M Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 1.5× added: 1.6× (low) Interest cover: removed: 4.2× added: 4.6× Undrawn credit line: removed: $426M added: $422M Debt due within 12 months: $11M Last debt due: 2033 Hayward's debt is mostly a secured term loan of $960.0 million due June 23, 2033, which it refinanced on June 23, 2026, at term SOFR plus 2.00%. removed: Debt added: At September 26, 2026, debt also removed: includes $1.3 added: included $1.2 million of other bank debt and removed: $3.9 added: $3.7 million of finance leases. Interest rate swaps fixed the rate on $600.0 million of the variable rate removed: debt; $350.0 million of added: debt. Of the removed: swaps added: swaps, $250.0 million end in added: January 2027, $100.0 million in March 2027 and $250.0 million in March 2028. Cash is removed: $304.1 added: $236.3 million of cash and removed: $179.3 added: $239.2 million of short-term investments at removed: June 27, added: September 26, 2026. EBITDA is adjusted EBITDA added: of $316.5 million for the removed: last twelve months, and the company's net added: 12 months to September 26, 2026. Net leverage was 1.5 times, its lowest since its 2021 IPO. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first removed: half added: nine months of removed: 2026, and Q2 interest included $5.2 million of refinancing costs. added: 2026. Hayward was in compliance with all covenants. The removed: new $425.0 million revolving facility runs removed: for five years, to about June 2031, and removed: $425.6 added: $422.3 million removed: in total was available under its revolving credit removed: facilities. added: facilities at September 26, 2026. In the first nine months of 2026, Hayward bought back about 7.8 million shares for $115.3 million. It had removed: $382.3 added: $330.8 million left under its share repurchase program, which runs to July 28, 2028. As of removed: Jun 27, added: Sep 26, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 results: volume, price and margin. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Net sales growth with stable volume, gross margin near 49% and the 2026 guidance kept pass; falling volume or a cut to the guidance fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Net sales grew 6% with modest volume growth, gross margin was 47.9%, and Hayward raised its 2026 guidance to adjusted diluted EPS of $0.86 to $0.88. Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Adjusted diluted EPS of removed: $0.84 added: $0.86 to removed: $0.87 added: $0.88 for 2026 and a 2027 outlook with sales and earnings growth pass; a 2027 outlook with lower sales fails. Jul 2027 (estimate): Q2 2027 results: the main pool season. Pending. Watch: Volume growth in North America in the main season passes; a second year of growth only from price, with lower volume, fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 28, 2026: Hayward reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were $260.1 million, up 6%, from higher prices and modest volume growth. Gross margin rose 10 basis points to 47.9%. Net income was $32.4 million, up 35%, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.18, up 29%. North America sales grew 9%, and Europe and Rest of World sales fell 6%. Hayward raised its 2026 guidance to net sales growth of about 5% to 6% and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.86 to $0.88. It said that early buy orders for the 2027 season were ahead of the prior year in North America. In Q3 2026, it bought back about 3.4 million shares for about $51.5 million. Sep 30, 2026: Hayward appointed Jared Arrowood, its corporate controller, as Chief Accounting Officer from October 1, 2026. CFO Eifion Jones stays CFO and Treasurer. Jul 29, 2026: Hayward reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $318.4 million, up 6%, mostly from higher prices. Gross margin fell 50 basis points to 48.7% because of tariffs and inflation. Net income was $45.6 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.26, up 8%. North America sales grew 9%, and Europe and Rest of World sales fell 8%. Hayward kept its 2026 guidance. Jun 27, 2026: In Q2 2026, Hayward bought back about 4.1 million shares at an average price of $14.24, for about $58.0 million. It also paid the remaining $9.9 million of its securities class action settlement. Jun 23, 2026: Hayward refinanced its bank debt. It borrowed $960.0 million of new term loans due June 23, 2033, at term SOFR plus 2.00%, and signed a $425.0 million five-year revolving credit facility. The refinancing extended maturities without more total debt. Apr 29, 2026: Hayward reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales were $255.2 million, up 12%, from higher prices and higher volume. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.13, up 30%. Hayward raised its 2026 guidance to net sales growth of about 5% and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.84 to $0.87.