INGR changes

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View the full Nov 7, 2026 version

Price: $97.93 → $92.83(−5.2%)
Next earnings: Nov 5, 2026 → Feb 5, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: No → Yes
About: Ingredion makes ingredients for food and beverage companies and for industrial customers. It turns corn, tapioca, potatoes, stevia and other plants into starches, sweeteners, texturizers and plant proteins. It reports three segments. Texture & Healthful Solutions sells specialty ingredients that give food its texture or reduce sugar, such as clean-label starches and stevia, and it had removed: $627 added: $610 million of net sales in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. Food & Industrial Ingredients LATAM removed: ($611 added: ($624 million) and Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./CAN removed: ($488 million) sell mostly sweeteners and starches in larger volumes at lower margins. Ingredion earns a margin over the cost of its raw materials, mostly corn, and it passes much of the corn cost to customers in its prices. On June 8, 2026, it agreed to buy Tate & Lyle, a UK maker of specialty ingredients for mouthfeel, sweetening and fortification.
Thesis: The market doubts the earnings power of Ingredion's base business and fears the cost of the Tate & Lyle purchase. Operational problems at the Argo plant, after a thermal event, cut Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./CAN operating income by 48% in the first half of removed: 2026, added: 2026 and added: by 36% in Q3 2026. Argo now runs at stable rates, but its costs are high, and in November 2026 Ingredion cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance added: for the second time, to removed: $10.30 added: $9.25 to removed: $10.90. added: $9.70. Demand for sweeteners and starches in the US and Mexico is also soft. At the same time, Ingredion will pay 595 pence per share in cash for Tate & Lyle, an enterprise value of about £3.7 billion, at a premium of about 59% to the price before the offer. It will fund the deal with new debt, and it expects net leverage of about 3.0 times at completion, against debt of $1.8 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. Investors ask whether the price is too high and whether the antitrust review will delay or change the deal. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Argo must removed: stay at normal production rates, added: lower its operating costs, so that U.S./CAN operating income recovers in 2027. Texture & Healthful Solutions must keep its volume growth, which reached removed: nine added: ten quarters in a row in removed: Q2 2026. added: Q3 2026, and pass higher input costs to customers. The Tate & Lyle deal must pass its antitrust conditions and close in the second half of 2027, as planned. After closing, Ingredion must deliver the planned net cost synergies of about $130 million a year by the end of 2030 and reduce leverage to about 2.5 times within about 18 months. The removed: Q3 added: full-year 2026 report removed: on November 5, 2026, gives added: and 2027 outlook, expected in February 2027, give the removed: first added: next evidence on Argo, and the antitrust decisions and the deal closing in 2027 give the rest. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters.
Risks: The Tate & Lyle purchase is large and needs material antitrust approvals, and completion is expected only in the second half of 2027. A long review, a required sale of businesses or a failed deal can change its value. Ingredion must also integrate Tate & Lyle and deliver about $130 million of yearly cost synergies by 2030. Debt rises with the deal. Ingredion expects net leverage of about 3.0 times at completion, from total debt of $1.8 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. The purchase is in pounds sterling, and foreign exchange hedges caused a $47 million mark-to-market loss in Q2 2026. Operations at Argo, Ingredion's large US plant, failed in the first half of 2026. added: Production is now stable, but costs stay high: Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./CAN operating income fell removed: 48% added: 36% in removed: that period, added: Q3 2026, and Ingredion expects it down removed: 20% added: 35% to removed: 25% added: 40% for the year. Another plant problem added: or a slow cost recovery would hurt results again. Demand for sweeteners and starches is soft in the US and in Mexico, and the strong Mexican peso lowers LATAM profit. Food companies face pressure to cut sugar and change recipes, which can lower demand for corn sweeteners. Ingredion depends on corn and tapioca prices, energy costs and tariffs. Guidance reflects tariff levels at the end of July 2026, and new tariffs can raise costs or reduce exports.
Balance sheet: Cash: removed: $952M added: $993M Debt: $1.8B Net debt: removed: $831M added: $782M Interest cover: removed: 6.1× added: 8.6× Undrawn credit line: $1.0B Debt due within 12 months: removed: $541M added: $533M Last debt due: 2050 Ingredion funds itself mostly with unsecured senior notes. Debt is the carrying amount of total debt at removed: June added: September 30, removed: 2026: notes of $500 million at 3.200% due October 1, 2026, removed: $597 added: $1,775 million: $1,242 million removed: at 2.900% added: of long-term notes due added: from June removed: 1, 2030, $253 million at 6.625% due April 15, 2037 and $392 million at 3.900% due added: 2030 to June removed: 1, 2050, added: 2050 and removed: $41 added: $533 million of short-term borrowings. removed: Ingredion shows added: The short-term borrowings include the removed: October 2026 added: $500 million of 3.200% notes removed: as long-term debt, because it intends and is able to refinance them; they are in due removed: within 12 months here added: October 1, 2026, which Ingredion repaid with removed: the short-term borrowings. added: cash on that day. Cash is cash and short-term removed: investments. The weighted average interest rate on debt was 4.0% in Q2 added: investments, $993 million at September 30, 2026. Interest cover is operating income added: of $592 million divided by financing costs added: of $69 million for the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026, and removed: Q2 financing added: these costs included a removed: $47 million loss on the pound sterling hedge for the deal. Liquidity was removed: $3.9 added: $3.8 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, added: without the deal facilities, including a $1.0 billion removed: five-year revolving credit agreement that backs commercial removed: paper, added: paper and removed: $1.9 added: $1.8 billion of unused foreign credit lines. For Tate & Lyle, Ingredion has a $2,750 million bridge facility and a $1,475 million delayed draw term loan facility, with commitments to February 2, 2028, and it plans to issue new notes. It expects net leverage of about 3.0 times at completion and about 2.5 times within about 18 months. The quarterly dividend removed: is $0.82 added: rose to $0.83 per removed: share, added: share in September 2026, and the buyback target is $100 million for removed: 2026. added: 2026, of which $85 million was done by September 30. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: Argo recovery and guidance. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: U.S./CAN operating income that improves with Argo at normal rates and the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.30 to $10.90 kept pass; another guidance cut fails. added: Outcome: U.S./CAN operating income fell 36% because of high Argo costs, and Ingredion cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.25 to $9.70. Feb added: 5, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with higher operating income in U.S./CAN and continued volume growth in Texture & Healthful Solutions passes; a lower 2027 outlook fails. Q4 2027 (estimate): Tate & Lyle antitrust approvals and completion. Pending. Watch: Completion in the second half of 2027 without large required sales of businesses passes; a delay past early 2028 or a blocked deal fails.
Recent events: added: Nov 5, 2026: Ingredion reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales fell 1% to $1.79 billion, mainly because of the Pakistan sale. Reported and adjusted operating income both fell 19%, and Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./CAN operating income fell to $52 million from $81 million, because of high costs at Argo. Adjusted EPS was $2.28, against $2.75 a year earlier. Texture & Healthful Solutions grew volume for the tenth quarter in a row. Ingredion cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.25 to $9.70, from $10.30 to $10.90, and now expects U.S./CAN operating income to fall 35% to 40% for the year. On October 1, 2026, it repaid its $500 million notes due on that day with cash. Aug 19, 2026: Ingredion named Diego Reynoso, former CFO of The Boston Beer Company, as Executive Vice President and CFO from October 1, 2026. Jason Payant had been interim CFO since April 1, 2026, after James Gray resigned. Aug 4, 2026: Ingredion reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $1.85 billion, up 1%. Reported operating income fell 31% to $188 million, because of the closure of the Cabo, Brazil plant and Argo costs, and adjusted operating income fell 5% to $258 million. Adjusted EPS was $2.82, down from $2.87. The Argo plant returned to normal production rates. Ingredion kept its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.30 to $10.90. Jul 28, 2026: Tate & Lyle shareholders approved Ingredion's all-cash offer of 595 pence per share. Completion still needs the sanction of the UK High Court and material antitrust approvals, and Ingredion expects it in the second half of 2027. Jun 30, 2026: Ingredion sold 51% of its Pakistan business, Rafhan Maize, to a group led by Nishat Group for about $165 million in cash. Rafhan Maize had about $250 million of net sales in 2025, and Ingredion keeps about 20% of it. Jun 24, 2026: Ingredion signed a $1,475 million delayed draw term loan facility for the Tate & Lyle purchase. It replaced part of a $4,225 million bridge facility signed on June 8, 2026, which fell to $2,750 million. Jun 8, 2026: Ingredion agreed to buy Tate & Lyle for 595 pence per share in cash, an enterprise value of about £3.7 billion ($5.0 billion) and a premium of about 59%. It expects about $130 million of yearly net cost synergies by the end of 2030, net leverage of about 3.0 times at completion and about 2.5 times within about 18 months. May 5, 2026: Ingredion reported Q1 2026 results. Reported EPS was $2.22, and adjusted EPS was $2.34, down from $2.97. A longer recovery at the Argo plant hurt results in U.S./CAN. Ingredion cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.45 to $11.15. It also decided to close its Cabo, Brazil plant, with charges of about $43 million.