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INVH

Current
Price
$26.88
Discount category
Far below intrinsic value
Next earnings
Jan 28, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Invitation Homes
Sector
Single-family rental REIT
About
Invitation Homes is a real estate investment trust that owns and leases single-family homes in the United States. At September 30, 2026, it owned 85,961 homes, mostly in the Sun Belt and the West. It leases homes to families, usually for one to two years, and it maintains them with its own staff. It also manages homes for joint ventures and other owners, builds and buys new homes, and lends to builders of rental communities. It bought ResiBuilt, a home builder, in January 2026. Most of its revenue is rent. Average occupancy in its same store portfolio was 96.4% in Q3 2026.
Thesis
The market prices Invitation Homes for slow rent growth and for political and legal risk to large owners of single-family homes. Same store net operating income rose only 1.1% in Q3 2026. New lease rents fell 0.2% in Q3 2026 and 0.8% in the first nine months of 2026, and average same store occupancy fell to 96.4% in Q3 2026. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became federal law on July 11, 2026, and executive actions and state bills aim to limit purchases of single-family homes by institutional owners. These rules can limit how Invitation Homes grows and can raise its costs. The company says private buyers pay more for its homes than its stock price implies: it sold homes and used the cash to buy back nearly $1 billion of shares from December 2025 to October 27, 2026, and its board added a $500 million buyback program on October 26, 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Rent growth must improve, with new lease rent growth turning positive and occupancy back near 97%. Core FFO per share must reach the 2026 guidance of about $1.96 and grow in 2027. The rules under the Housing Act and state laws must leave its current homes, leasing and home sales mostly unchanged. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance, expected in early 2027, are the next tests. If they pass, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is new rules that force sales of homes or limit rents, which would lower the value of the portfolio.
Risks
Federal law, executive actions and state bills aim to limit institutional ownership and purchases of single-family homes. New rules can limit purchases, force changes to the business, raise compliance costs or lower the value of homes. Rent control and tenant protection laws can also lower revenue. New lease rents fell 0.2% in Q3 2026 and 0.8% in the first nine months of 2026, and average occupancy fell to 96.4% in Q3 2026. More homes for rent or for sale in its markets, or a weaker job market, can lower rent growth and occupancy. Property taxes and insurance are large costs. Increases in taxes, insurance premiums or repair costs can lower net operating income. Net debt was 5.5 times adjusted EBITDAre at September 30, 2026, and 9.8% of debt has floating rates. Higher interest rates raise the cost to refinance debt.
Balance sheet
Cash: $147M Debt: $8.8B Net debt: $8.6B Net debt / EBITDA: 5.5× (high) Ratings: Fitch BBB+ (stable outlook), Moody's Baa2 (stable outlook), S&P BBB (stable outlook) Invitation Homes funds itself mostly with unsecured notes and bank term loans. Total debt was $8,810 million at September 30, 2026: $900 million secured and $7,910 million unsecured. Of this debt, 90.2% was at fixed rates or swapped to fixed rates, the weighted average rate was 4.0% and the weighted average time to maturity was 4.4 years. About $500 million of secured debt is due in 2027, and the largest maturity year is 2029, with $2,235 million. Net debt was $8,608 million, 5.5 times trailing adjusted EBITDAre, at the low end of the target range of 5.5 to 6.0 times. Available liquidity was $1,344 million of unrestricted cash and undrawn revolving credit. The company met all its covenants, with a total leverage ratio of 30.2% against a limit of 60% under its bank facilities. Fitch rates it BBB+, Moody's Baa2 and S&P BBB, all with a stable outlook. It bought back $250 million of shares in Q3 2026, and its board added a $500 million buyback program on October 26, 2026. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 results: rent growth and guidance. Failed. Watch: Positive new lease rent growth, occupancy near 97% and 2026 Core FFO guidance near $1.95 pass; lower rents or a guidance cut fails. Outcome: Invitation Homes raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance to $1.96 per share, but new lease rents fell 0.2% and average occupancy fell to 96.4%. Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with Core FFO per share growth and same store NOI growth above the 2026 level passes; flat or lower Core FFO per share fails.
Recent events
Oct 28, 2026: Invitation Homes reported Q3 2026 results. Total revenues rose 6.3% to $731 million, and Core FFO per share rose 2.4% to $0.48. Same store NOI rose 1.1%, and blended rent growth was 3.0%, with renewal rents up 4.3% and new lease rents down 0.2%. Average same store occupancy was 96.4%. It sold 658 homes, bought 216 and bought back $250 million of shares. It raised its 2026 guidance for Core FFO per share to $1.96 at the midpoint and its planned home sales to $950 million at the midpoint. Oct 26, 2026: The board authorized a new $500 million share buyback program. From December 1, 2025 to October 27, 2026, the company bought back nearly $1 billion of its shares. Sep 15, 2026: Invitation Homes ended its Pathway joint ventures and took full control of Pathway Homes. Its 894 homes are now wholly owned, and the company recorded a non-cash net loss of $30.4 million. Jul 29, 2026: Invitation Homes reported Q2 2026 results. Total revenues rose 9.7% to $748 million, and Core FFO per share rose 5.0% to $0.51. Same store NOI rose 1.5%, and blended rent growth was 2.7%. It sold 657 homes and bought 196, and it bought back $100 million of shares. It raised its 2026 guidance for Core FFO per share to $1.95 at the midpoint and for AFFO per share to $1.65, and it raised its planned home sales to $850 million at the midpoint. Jul 11, 2026: The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became federal law. Invitation Homes said that this law, executive actions and possible state laws that aim to limit institutional ownership of single-family homes can limit its growth and change its plans. Jul 8, 2026: Invitation Homes issued $500 million of 4.950% senior notes due February 2032. On July 9, 2026, it used the money to prepay $488 million of a secured loan due in June 2027. Apr 27, 2026: The board authorized a new $500 million share buyback program, after the company used all of the $500 million program from October 2025. Jan 14, 2026: Invitation Homes bought ResiBuilt Homes, a builder of homes for rent.
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