ITUB changes
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- Price
- $7.56
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- 2027-02-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Itaú Unibanco
- Sector
- Banks
- About
- Itaú Unibanco is a Brazilian bank. It gives loans and cards to individuals and companies, takes deposits, manages assets and sells insurance. It is the largest private bank in Brazil in mortgages and the leader in payroll loans by portfolio size. It also has banks in Chile, Colombia, Paraguay and Uruguay. Brazil gave 93.8% of the recurring managerial result in Q3 2026. At September 30, 2026, the total credit portfolio was R$1,544.4 billion, total assets were R$3,347.8 billion and the bank had 89,610 employees. Its controlling stockholders hold it through IUPAR and Itaúsa. Its preferred shares trade in São Paulo and as ADSs on the New York Stock Exchange, and one ADS represents one preferred share. Milton Maluhy Filho is its chief executive officer.
- Thesis
- Itaú Unibanco trades close to its intrinsic value. Investors pay for high and steady returns, good credit quality and large dividends, but they also price the risks of Brazil's economy, high interest rates and currency. The annualized recurring return on equity was 23.6% in Q3 2026 and 24.1% in the first nine months of 2026, and the bank paid out 72.0% of 2025 profit as dividends and interest on capital. For the stock to keep pace with its intrinsic value, three things must be true. The recurring return on equity must stay above 22% while the credit portfolio grows within the 2026 guidance of 5.5% to 9.5%. Credit quality must hold: the NPL ratio over 90 days was 2.0% at September 30, 2026, and the cost of credit must stay within the guidance of R$38.5 billion to R$43.5 billion. Capital must stay strong enough for high payouts, with a CET1 ratio of 12.7% at September 30, 2026. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027 with the 2027 guidance, is the next test. If Brazil's economy slows, if defaults rise or if the real weakens, the stock can fall below its intrinsic value.
- Risks
- Brazil's interest rates and economy drive loan demand and defaults. A slowdown can raise the cost of credit, which was R$10.4 billion in Q3 2026, up 2.7% from the previous quarter. The ADS price is in U.S. dollars, but the bank earns mostly in reais. A weaker real lowers the dollar value of profit and dividends. Changes to taxes and rules in Brazil can change profit. The bank changed its 2026 tax rate guidance in November 2026 because of a change in the path of the long-term interest rate (TJLP). Digital banks and payment companies compete for cards, payments and deposits. Commissions and fees were flat in Q3 2026 from a year earlier, and investment banking income fell. The bank spends heavily on technology and AI, such as NeoSpace for R$2,925 million. If these investments do not lower costs or raise revenue, returns can fall.
- Balance sheet
- Itaú Unibanco is a bank, so its balance sheet is mostly loans, securities and deposits, and not corporate debt. At September 30, 2026, total assets were R$3,347.8 billion and stockholders' equity was R$219.9 billion. The total credit portfolio, with financial guarantees and private securities, was R$1,544.4 billion, and loans were 78.6% of funding. The common equity Tier 1 ratio was 12.7%, the Tier 1 ratio 14.2% and the BIS ratio 15.4%. The liquidity coverage ratio was 205.8% and the net stable funding ratio was 123.7%, against a minimum of 100% for each. The NPL ratio over 90 days was 2.0%. Book value was R$19.95 per share, with 11,022 million shares outstanding. As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026: Q3 2026 results and 2026 guidance. Passed. Watch: A recurring return on equity above 22%, an NPL ratio near 2% and kept guidance pass; a lower return or weaker guidance fail. Outcome: The recurring return on equity was 23.6%, the NPL ratio over 90 days was 2.0%, and the bank kept every guidance line except the tax rate, which it lowered. Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: A cost of credit within R$38.5 billion to R$43.5 billion for 2026, a return on equity above 22% and 2027 guidance for growth pass; higher credit costs or lower returns fail. 2027 (estimate): Approval of the NeoSpace purchase. Pending. Watch: Approval by CADE and the Central Bank of Brazil passes; a block or strict conditions fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-11-03: Itaú Unibanco reported Q3 2026 results. The recurring managerial result rose 6.2% from a year earlier to R$12.6 billion, and the annualized recurring return on equity was 23.6%. Without the retail portfolio in Colombia that it sold in July 2026, the credit portfolio grew 2.2% in the quarter and 10.9% in a year. The NPL ratio over 90 days was 2.0% and the CET1 ratio was 12.7%. The bank cut its 2026 guidance for the effective tax rate to 28.0% to 29.0% and kept the other guidance lines. 2026-10-26: Itaú Unibanco agreed to buy NeoSpace, a Brazilian AI company that builds foundation models and that has worked for the bank for about two years. The price is R$2,925 million, paid partly at closing and the rest over five years. The deal needs approval from CADE and the Central Bank of Brazil. 2026-08-04: Itaú Unibanco reported Q2 2026 results. The recurring managerial result was R$12.4 billion, and the annualized recurring return on equity was 24.3%. The bank lowered its 2026 growth guidance for commissions, fees and insurance results to 2.0% to 5.0%, because capital markets were more volatile than it expected. It also launched ia.i, an AI assistant in its app. 2026-05-05: Itaú Unibanco reported Q1 2026 results. The recurring managerial result was R$12.3 billion, and the annualized recurring return on equity was 24.8%. The CET1 ratio was 12.0% in March 2026. 2026-02-04: Itaú Unibanco reported 2025 results. The recurring managerial result rose 13.1% to R$46.8 billion, and the return on equity was 23.4%. The bank paid R$33.7 billion of dividends and interest on capital for 2025, a payout of 72.0%, and it gave its 2026 guidance. The Board approved a new buyback program of up to 200 million preferred shares to August 4, 2027.