JD changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $27.01 → $27.85(+3.1%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 13, 2026 → Nov 17, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices JD.com for low profits in a weak Chinese consumer market and for the cost of its push into food delivery. Net revenues fell 2.9% in Q2 2026, which JD said was mainly because of a high base in Q2 2025, and net product revenues fell 5.4%. JD Food Delivery and other New Businesses lost RMB4.9 billion in Q2 2026, less than the RMB14.4 billion loss a year earlier but still large. Competition with Alibaba, Meituan and PDD keeps prices and margins low. Part of the gap is structural: US-China tensions, Chinese regulation and the company's control by its founder through shares with 20 votes each keep the value of many Chinese stocks low. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue must grow again from Q4 2026, after the high base of 2025 ends. Losses in New Businesses must keep falling, while JD Retail keeps its operating margin near 4.5% or more. JD must keep returning cash through buybacks and dividends, with free cash flow near the RMB31.4 billion of the 12 months to June 30, 2026. The Q3 2026 removed: report, expected in mid-November added: report on November 17, 2026, and the Q4 report in March 2027 are the next tests. If they pass, part of the gap can close over the next four to six quarters, but the structural China discount will probably stay.
- Checkpoints
- Nov removed: 13, 2026 (estimate): added: 17, 2026: Q3 2026 results: revenue and New Businesses losses. Pending. Watch: Revenue close to flat or growing, with a smaller New Businesses loss and a JD Retail margin near 4.5% or more, passes; another revenue fall with larger losses fails. Mar 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 and full-year results, buybacks and dividend. Pending. Watch: Revenue growth in Q4 2026, a new or larger buyback program and a higher dividend pass; falling revenue or lower cash returns fail.