LYB changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $64.01 → $63.27(−1.2%)
- Discount
- 0% → 1%(+1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-02 → 2026-10-30
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices LyondellBasell for a long downturn in petrochemicals. In 2025, polymer margins were low: EPS excluding identified items was only $0.95 in the first half of 2025, and the company cut its quarterly dividend in February 2026 to $0.69 per share. In Q2 2026, a conflict in the Middle East reduced global supply, and margins rose fast: EPS excluding identified items was $4.30. Investors fear that these profits are temporary and that margins fall again when the lost supply returns, which the company expects to continue into 2027. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The Cash Improvement Plan must give $500 million of extra cash by the end of 2026, as planned. The company must use the strong 2026 cash flow to lower its debt. Margins must stay above the 2025 level after the Middle East supply returns, helped by the sale of the high-cost European sites. The Q3 2026 report, expected in late on October or early November 202630, 2026 and the Q4 2026 report in early 2027 give the next evidence. The gap closes slowly, over two to three years, because it depends on the industry cycle. The main reason it may not close is that margins fall back to the 2025 level after the supply disruption ends.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 2Oct 30, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: margins. Pending. Watch: Margins that stay well above the 2025 level and strong cash flow pass; a fast return to 2025 margins fails. Jan 2027 (estimate): Cash Improvement Plan result. Pending. Watch: A confirmed $500 million of extra cash in 2026 and lower debt pass; a shortfall against the plan fails.