MAT changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $17.20 → $16.95(−1.5%)
- Discount
- 12% → 14%(+2.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-04 → 2026-11-05
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Mattel for lower profits from tariffs and cost inflation and for uncertainty after a change of CEO. In Q2 2026, net sales grew 10%, but the adjusted gross margin fell to 48.6% from 51.2%, and adjusted EPS fell to $0.01 from $0.21. Mattel expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.27 to $1.39, lower than the $1.49 of 2025. Barbie and Fisher-Price sales fell in Q2 2026, and the growth came from Hot Wheels, games and action figures. Ynon Kreiz left as CEO on October 2, 2026, and Roger Lynch, a board member since 2018, started as CEO on October 12, 2026, and a new CFO started on October 20, 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Mattel must reach its 2026 guidance, with an adjusted gross margin of about 50% for the full year, after the important holiday quarter. Barbie and Fisher-Price must stop their decline. The new CEO must keep the cost savings and show a clear plan for 2027 that grows profits from the toy and the entertainment business. The Q3 2026 report, expected in late October or early on November 20265, 2026 and the full-year report with the 2027 guidance in February 2027 are the tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weak holiday season, which would force a cut to the 2026 guidance.
- Risks
- Most of Mattel's profit comes in the holiday season. If retailers order less, or consumers spend less in Q4 2026, Mattel can miss its 2026 guidance. Tariffs and inflation lower the gross margin. The adjusted gross margin fell 260 basis points in Q2 2026. Mattel's guidance does not include possible refunds of IEEPA tariffs, and class actions filed in July 2026 claim that customers should get some of those refunds. The CEO and the CFO changed in October 2026. A new CEOmanagement team can change the strategy, the costs or the guidance, and the amended offer letter shows that the board considers a possible change of control. Barbie and Fisher-Price billings fell in Q2 2026. If these large brands continue to decline, growth in Hot Wheels and games may not be enough.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 45, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: 2026 guidance. Pending. Watch: Growth in net sales and an unchanged 2026 guidance pass; a cut to the adjusted EPS guidance fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance under the new CEO. Pending. Watch: A 2027 plan with higher adjusted EPS and a stable gross margin passes; lower profits or a large new restructuring fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-19: Mattel named Peter Griffith, the former CFO of Amgen, as Chief Financial Officer and as a director from October 20, 2026. He succeeds Paul Ruh, who stays as an executive advisor until December 31, 2026. 2026-10-14: Mattel amended the offer letter of Roger Lynch. His start date as CEO became October 12, 2026. The amendment also changes his benefits if a change of control causes his job to end on or before December 31, 2028. Mattel said that it made the change after recent external developments. 2026-09-30: Mattel named Roger Lynch, a board member since 2018 and the CEO of Condé Nast since 2019, as Chairman from October 2, 2026 and as CEO from on or before November 2, 2026. He succeeds Ynon Kreiz, who left on October 2, 2026 to take a senior position at another public company. 2026-08-04: Mattel reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $1,125 million, up 10%. The adjusted gross margin fell to 48.6% from 51.2% because of tariffs, inflation, higher royalties and foreign exchange. Adjusted EPS was $0.01, compared with $0.21 a year earlier. Mattel kept its 2026 guidance of adjusted EPS of $1.27 to $1.39 and share repurchases of $400 million, of which it had done $300 million in the first half. 2026-07-31: Mattel promoted Roberto Stanichi to President, Chief Marketing and Brand Officer. He leads the global brands, including Hot Wheels, Barbie, Fisher-Price and UNO. 2026-03-02: Mattel bought the remaining 50% of Mattel163, a mobile games studio, from NetEase. The studio became a wholly owned subsidiary.