- Company name
- Mattel
- Sector
- Toys & entertainment
- About
- Mattel is one of the largest toy companies in the world. Its brands include Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, UNO and American Girl. It designs toys and games, makes them in its own plants and through suppliers, and sells them through retailers and online. It also earns money from licenses, films, television and digital games, and it calls itself an IP-driven play and family entertainment company. On March 2, 2026, it bought the remaining 50% of Mattel163, a mobile games studio, from NetEase, so the studio is now a wholly owned subsidiary. Net sales were $5.35 billion in 2025. Most sales happen in the second half of the year, before the holiday season.
- Thesis
- The market prices Mattel for lower profits from tariffs and cost inflation and for uncertainty after a change of CEO. In Q2 2026, net sales grew 10%, but the adjusted gross margin fell to 48.6% from 51.2%, and adjusted EPS fell to $0.01 from $0.21. On November 5, 2026, Mattel cut its 2026 guidance for adjusted EPS to $1.05 to $1.20, which leaves out tariff refunds, from $1.27 to $1.39, and it now expects an adjusted gross margin of roughly 48%. In 2025, adjusted EPS was $1.49. Barbie and Fisher-Price sales fell in Q2 2026, and the growth came from Hot Wheels, games and action figures. Ynon Kreiz left as CEO on October 2, 2026, and Roger Lynch, a board member since 2018, started as CEO on October 12, 2026, and a new CFO started on October 20, 2026. EdgePoint, the largest shareholder with about 18% of the shares, got a board seat on October 21, 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Mattel must reach its lower 2026 guidance after the important holiday quarter. Barbie and Fisher-Price must stop their decline. The new CEO must keep the cost savings and show a clear plan for 2027 that grows profits from the toy and the entertainment business. The full-year report with the 2027 guidance, expected in February 2027, is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weak holiday season, which would force a cut to the 2026 guidance.
- Risks
- Most of Mattel's profit comes in the holiday season. If retailers order less, or consumers spend less in Q4 2026, Mattel can miss its 2026 guidance.
Tariffs and inflation lower the gross margin. The adjusted gross margin fell 260 basis points in Q2 2026. Mattel received $88 million of tariff refunds in Q3 2026, but its guidance leaves out tariff refunds, and class actions filed in July 2026 claim that customers should get some of those refunds.
The CEO and the CFO changed in October 2026, and a new President and Chief Operating Officer starts on November 11, 2026. A new management team can change the strategy, the costs or the guidance, and the amended offer letter shows that the board considers a possible change of control.
Barbie and Fisher-Price billings fell in Q2 2026. If these large brands continue to decline, growth in Hot Wheels and games may not be enough.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $541M
Debt: $2.3B
Net debt: $1.8B
Interest cover: 4.1×
Undrawn credit line: $1.4B, to July 2029
Debt due within 12 months: $0.0M
At September 30, 2026, long-term debt was $2.33 billion, and there was no current portion of long-term debt. Cash was $541 million, so net debt was about $1.79 billion. Cash is low before the holiday season because Mattel builds inventory and collects most cash in Q4. Mattel has $1.40 billion of senior unsecured revolving credit facilities that mature in July 2029, with no borrowings and about $13 million of letters of credit at September 30, 2026. Its senior notes include notes due 2027 and 2029. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the nine months to September 30, 2026, which includes the $88 million of tariff refunds in Q3. Interest expense was $94.7 million in the nine months. Mattel used $308 million for share buybacks in the first nine months of 2026, and about $1.2 billion of its authorization was left.
As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: 2026 guidance. Failed. Watch: Growth in net sales and an unchanged 2026 guidance pass; a cut to the adjusted EPS guidance fails. Outcome: Net sales grew 4%, but Mattel cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.05 to $1.20 from $1.27 to $1.39.
Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance under the new CEO. Pending. Watch: A 2027 plan with higher adjusted EPS and a stable gross margin passes; lower profits or a large new restructuring fail.
- Recent events
- Nov 5, 2026: Mattel reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales rose 4% to $1,807 million. The adjusted gross margin rose to 55.0% from 50.2%, mainly because of $88 million of tariff refunds. Adjusted EPS was $1.30, up from $0.91. Hot Wheels billings rose 7%, but Barbie and Fisher-Price declined. Mattel cut its 2026 guidance to adjusted EPS of $1.05 to $1.20 and an adjusted gross margin of roughly 48%, with net sales growth of 1% to 4% in constant currency, and the guidance leaves out tariff refunds. It also named Steve Totzke as President and Chief Operating Officer from November 11, 2026.
Oct 21, 2026: Mattel signed a cooperation agreement with EdgePoint Investment Group, which owns about 18% of its shares, and appointed Lee Matheson, a Partner at EdgePoint, to the board.
Oct 19, 2026: Mattel named Peter Griffith, the former CFO of Amgen, as Chief Financial Officer and as a director from October 20, 2026. He succeeds Paul Ruh, who stays as an executive advisor until December 31, 2026.
Oct 14, 2026: Mattel amended the offer letter of Roger Lynch. His start date as CEO became October 12, 2026. The amendment also changes his benefits if a change of control causes his job to end on or before December 31, 2028. Mattel said that it made the change after recent external developments.
Sep 30, 2026: Mattel named Roger Lynch, a board member since 2018 and the CEO of Condé Nast since 2019, as Chairman from October 2, 2026 and as CEO from on or before November 2, 2026. He succeeds Ynon Kreiz, who left on October 2, 2026 to take a senior position at another public company.
Aug 4, 2026: Mattel reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $1,125 million, up 10%. The adjusted gross margin fell to 48.6% from 51.2% because of tariffs, inflation, higher royalties and foreign exchange. Adjusted EPS was $0.01, compared with $0.21 a year earlier. Mattel kept its 2026 guidance of adjusted EPS of $1.27 to $1.39 and share repurchases of $400 million, of which it had done $300 million in the first half.
Jul 31, 2026: Mattel promoted Roberto Stanichi to President, Chief Marketing and Brand Officer. He leads the global brands, including Hot Wheels, Barbie, Fisher-Price and UNO.
Mar 2, 2026: Mattel bought the remaining 50% of Mattel163, a mobile games studio, from NetEase. The studio became a wholly owned subsidiary.