MDLZ changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $63.70 → $62.74(−1.5%)
- Discount
- 13% to 21% → 14% to 22%(+1.0 pts)
- Next earnings
- 2026-10-28 → 2026-10-29
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market discounts Mondelez because its profit fell after the cocoa price spike, and the recovery comes slowly. Mondelez raised chocolate prices sharply in 2025, and volumes fell, most of all in Europe. In Q2 2026, Europe's organic net revenue fell 3.5%, with volume and mix down 2.1%. Cocoa prices fell in early 2026, but Mondelez had already bought its cocoa for 2026, so lower costs do not help results this year. Adjusted EPS fell 8.8% in constant currency in the first half of 2026, and the 2026 guidance is flat to 5% growth. The CEO also said in February 2026 that low consumer confidence limits volume growth in North America. For the gap to close, Mondelez must show that cheaper cocoa reaches its margins in 2027, that European volumes grow again, and that adjusted EPS grows again. The first test is the Q3 2026 report, expected in late on October 29, 2026. The main test is the full-year report in early February 2027, with the 2027 outlook and the cocoa cost for 2027. If the 2027 outlook shows margin recovery, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. If cocoa prices rise again or volumes keep falling, the gap can last longer.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 2829, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: Europe volumes and adjusted EPS. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EPS that is flat or up in constant currency and a smaller fall in European volume pass; another fall in adjusted EPS or a cut to the 2026 outlook fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with adjusted EPS growth from lower cocoa costs passes; an outlook of flat or lower adjusted EPS fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-15: Mondelez said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, at 4:05 p.m. ET, after the market closes. 2026-07-28: Mondelez reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenues grew 4.1% to $9.36 billion, and organic net revenue grew 2.2%. Adjusted EPS was $0.73, down 2.7% in constant currency. Europe's organic net revenue fell 3.5%. Mondelez raised its 2026 organic revenue outlook to at least 2% growth, kept its adjusted EPS outlook of flat to 5% growth, and raised its quarterly dividend by 4%. 2026-06-15: Mondelez appointed Amit Banati, the former CFO of Kenvue and Kellanova, as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 1, 2026. Luca Zaramella, the former CFO, stays as Chief Operating Officer. 2026-05-20: At the annual meeting, shareholders re-elected all 10 directors, including CEO Dirk Van de Put as chair. They rejected a proposal for an independent board chair, with about 31% of the votes cast in favor. 2026-04-28: Mondelez reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenues grew 8.2% to $10.08 billion, and organic net revenue grew 3.0%, with volume and mix down 0.5%. Adjusted EPS was $0.67, down 14.9% in constant currency.