MFG changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $9.40 → $10.16(+8.1%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 13, 2026 → Feb 13, 2027
- About
- Mizuho Financial Group is one of the largest banking groups in Japan. It owns Mizuho Bank, Mizuho Trust & Banking and Mizuho Securities, and it also has banking and securities businesses in the Americas, Europe and Asia. It serves individuals, small and large Japanese companies, global companies and investors. Total assets were removed: ¥304.3 added: ¥320.9 trillion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. Its common shares trade on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and its American depositary shares (ADSs) trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Since October 1, 2020, five ADSs represent one common share. The fiscal year ends on March 31, and Mizuho calls the year to March 31, 2027 fiscal 2026. Amounts are in yen under Japanese GAAP unless the text says otherwise.
- Thesis
- The market doubts that Mizuho can keep its higher returns. Profit grew mostly because Japanese interest rates rose, fees grew and Mizuho sold shares that it held in client companies. Investors fear that these drivers can slow, and that losses on securities or higher credit costs can cut profit. Profit was ¥1,248.6 billion in fiscal 2025, up 41.0%, and ROE was 11.4%, up from 8.5%. removed: In July 2026, Mizuho raised its profit target for fiscal 2026 added: twice, to ¥1,400.0 removed: billion. added: billion in July 2026 and to ¥1,600.0 billion in November 2026. Its new target for fiscal 2028 is ROE above 12% without more rate rises by the Bank of Japan. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Profit must reach the removed: ¥1,400.0 added: ¥1,600.0 billion target for fiscal 2026. Fee income in Japan and abroad must keep growing, so that returns do not depend only on interest rates. Mizuho must keep a total payout ratio of 50% or more with buybacks, while its CET1 ratio stays in its operational range. The added: CET1 ratio fell to 12.74% at September 30, 2026 from 13.16% at March 31, 2026, so capital needs watching. The first half removed: results, expected added: results on November 13, removed: 2026, give added: 2026 passed the next removed: test, added: test. The Q3 results in about February 2027 and the fiscal 2026 results in May 2027 give the removed: second. added: next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a fall in Japanese interest rates or a credit shock, which can cut profit quickly.
- Balance sheet
- Mizuho funds itself mainly with deposits. Total assets were removed: ¥304.3 added: ¥320.9 trillion and total net assets were removed: ¥11.6 added: ¥11.3 trillion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. Own capital was removed: ¥11,510.8 added: ¥11,190.9 billion, or about removed: ¥4,730 added: ¥4,635 per share on removed: 2,433.5 added: 2,414.6 million shares outstanding (a calculation from the release figures). removed: The added: Under the international standard, the preliminary CET1 ratio was removed: 13.51% added: 12.74% at removed: June added: September 30, removed: 2026 under the international standard, up added: 2026, down from 13.16% at March 31, 2026, and the total capital ratio was removed: 17.74%. added: 17.52%. Risk-weighted assets were removed: ¥82.2 added: ¥84.2 trillion. Mizuho completed a buyback of 24.35 million shares for ¥200.0 billion on September 18, removed: 2026 added: 2026, and removed: planned added: it plans a new buyback of up to removed: cancel them on October 23, 2026. added: ¥200.0 billion from November 16, 2026 to February 28, 2027. It added: now plans dividends of removed: ¥150 added: ¥200 per share for fiscal 2026, up from removed: ¥145, added: ¥145 for fiscal 2025, and it uses a total payout ratio of 50% or more as a guide. For a bank, net debt is not a useful measure, so this profile does not show debt figures. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Jul 30, 2026: Q1 fiscal 2026 results. Passed. Watch: Profit on track for the fiscal 2026 target of ¥1,300.0 billion and continued buybacks pass; lower profit or a lower target fail. Outcome: Profit rose 45.5% to ¥422.9 billion, and Mizuho raised its fiscal 2026 target to ¥1,400.0 billion and its buyback to up to ¥200.0 billion. Nov 13, removed: 2026 (estimate): added: 2026: First half fiscal 2026 results. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: First half profit above half of the ¥1,400.0 billion target, a kept or raised target and a new buyback pass; a lower target or a large rise in credit costs fail. added: Outcome: First half profit rose 29.9% to ¥896.5 billion, and Mizuho raised its fiscal 2026 target to ¥1,600.0 billion, raised its dividend estimate to ¥200 and announced a new buyback of up to ¥200.0 billion. Feb 13, 2027 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2026 results. Pending. Watch: Nine-month profit on track for the ¥1,600.0 billion target with a CET1 ratio in the operational range passes; a lower target or a further fall in the CET1 ratio fails. May 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2026 results and shareholder returns. Pending. Watch: Profit of removed: ¥1,400.0 added: ¥1,600.0 billion or more, ROE on the path to above 12% and a total payout ratio of 50% or more pass; lower profit or smaller returns fail.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 13, 2026: Mizuho reported first half fiscal 2026 results. Profit attributable to owners of parent rose 29.9% to ¥896.5 billion, and ordinary profits rose 47.3% to ¥1,252.3 billion. Comprehensive income fell 69.5% to ¥257.3 billion. Mizuho raised its profit target for fiscal 2026 to ¥1,600.0 billion from ¥1,400.0 billion. It raised its dividend estimate for fiscal 2026 to ¥200 per share from ¥150, with an interim dividend of ¥100. It also announced a new buyback of up to ¥200.0 billion and 35 million shares, from November 16, 2026 to February 28, 2027, and it plans to cancel these shares on March 23, 2027. The CET1 ratio was 12.74% at September 30, 2026 under the international standard, a preliminary figure. Sep 24, 2026: Mizuho said that it completed its share buyback. It bought back 24,352,700 shares for ¥200.0 billion from May 18 to September 18, 2026, and it planned to cancel these shares on October 23, 2026. Aug 14, 2026: Mizuho reported a CET1 ratio of 13.51% at June 30, 2026 under the international standard, up from 13.16% at March 31, 2026. The total capital ratio was 17.74%. Jul 30, 2026: Mizuho reported Q1 fiscal 2026 results. Profit attributable to owners of parent rose 45.5% to ¥422.9 billion. Mizuho raised its profit target for fiscal 2026 to ¥1,400.0 billion from ¥1,300.0 billion. It also raised its share buyback to up to ¥200.0 billion and 35 million shares, from ¥100.0 billion and 25 million shares. May 19, 2026: Mizuho set a new target of ROE above 12% for fiscal 2028, without more rate rises by the Bank of Japan, and consolidated net business profits of ¥1.8 trillion to ¥2.0 trillion. It said that it reached its earlier target of ROE above 10% two years early. May 15, 2026: Mizuho reported fiscal 2025 results. Profit attributable to owners of parent rose 41.0% to ¥1,248.6 billion, and EPS was ¥502.92. Ordinary profits rose 34.6%, mainly because fee business grew in and outside Japan and because Mizuho sold shares that it held in client companies. Mizuho planned dividends of ¥150 per share for fiscal 2026, up from ¥145, and a first buyback of up to ¥100.0 billion. Nov 14, 2025: Mizuho reported first half fiscal 2025 results and raised its profit forecast for fiscal 2025 to ¥1,130.0 billion. Actual profit for the year was ¥1,248.6 billion.